OtherYou're listening to TIP.On today's episode, I'm joined by Moniz Pabrai for our annual compensation publishedover the Berkshire Hathaway weekend.We talk about what Berkshire might look like under Greg Abel and why $25 million in annualcompensation is a bargain for shareholders.Later in the episode, we discuss the biggest mistake investors make, selling the winnerstoo early.Moniz has a story about his frontline investment.He sold that later and up 200X and what that taught him about patience and compounding.We also touched on concentration, the S&P 500 versus Berkshire over the next decadeand the next century.And then we end with my favorite part of the conversation.Moniz tells us this beautiful story about his friendship with Guy Spear.Since 2014, with more than 200 million downloads, we have interviewed the world's best investors,studied deeply the principles of value investing, and uncovered many compelling investment opportunities.We focus on understanding businesses and intrinsic value, investing accordingly, and sharingeverything we learn with you.This show is not investment advice.It's intended for informational and entertainment purposes only.All opinions expressed by hosts and guests are solely their own, and they may have investmentsin the securities discussed.Now for your host, Stig Brodersen.
Stig BrodersenYou're listening to The Investor's Podcast.I'm your host, Stig Brodersen.And today I'm here with no other than Moniz Pabrai.Moniz, welcome to our annual banter here that will be published over the Berkshire weekend.So Moniz, since this is the Berkshire weekend, I wanted to ask you a few questions aboutthe company.Now Greg Abel has arguably been running the operating businesses since 2018, whenever hebecame the vice chairman of non-insurance operations.And I think it's safe to say that Greg is more hands-on, whereas Buffett was inclinedto, I think he said, delegate almost to the part of abdication.So which CEO approach would you prefer if you were a Berkshire shareholder?
OtherStig, I always look forward to this.It's like the pregame tailgate party.So always a pleasure to be here with you.
Stig BrodersenWonderful.
OtherWell, you know, Charlie Munger said that Greg is better than Warren in some important ways.And he never went further to describe what those...But I thought about what he might've meant.So Greg is in Des Moines, Iowa, and he has a team, maybe more now, but he has a teamof about 30 people who are between him and the businesses.
OtherSo he has put in a lot of very smart people to help him basically look at these companies.And for Warren, it was easier because he bought these businesses one at a time.And he got to know them one at a time.For example, when he bought See's Candy, there were very few operating subsidiaries and Warrenspent an inordinate amount of time on See's, an inordinate amount of time on Coke and onBuffalo News and so on.Now Greg doesn't have that luxury because when he comes in, there's like 80 plus businessesplus Mormon Group has hundreds of businesses inside that.So he's never going to be able to know the businesses as well as Warren does.And the second thing is Warren's persona was not to get involved.And so the Berkshire companies for decades have been undermanaged.It can be an advantage to leave these managers alone, but it also has a lot of disadvantages.I think Greg got a nice middle ground in the sense that he's not overbearing in your face,et cetera.But at the same time, if he clearly sees that a manager is not delivering, not the rightperson, et cetera, he is going to act on that.And so I think we are going to be seeing tighter operations.Most of the acquisitions Warren did, did not work well for Berkshire.Let that sink in, Stig.Because we're talking about God here.I would have some conversations with Charlie and I would tell him, Charlie, I hate retail.I wrote a chapter in my first book about how much I hate retail.And he says to me, well, all the subsequent furniture companies we bought after NebraskaFurniture Mart, and all the subsequent jewelers we bought after Borsheim's are so useless.I'm with you, Monish.And I think if Charlie had his way, Berkshire would have had a much smaller retail footprintthan they ended up with.And Warren himself has said, I think it was a 22 or 23 letter where he said that 12 ideasover 58 years or something have led to the creation of Berkshire.And Warren has made more than, I would guess, somewhere between 300 to 400 investments orbuying companies in those almost six decades.And it's a three or 4% hit rate.And so that's the beautiful thing about this business.The interesting thing about 4% is that if we go back for the last 90 years in the U.S.stock market, about 4% of the businesses have delivered all the returns in the market.The other 96% have barely matched bonds or inflation.They haven't done much.The funny thing is what's happened in the bigger market and what's happened inside Berkshire
Questionerhave been very similar in terms of the percentages.Of course, in the case of Berkshire, the home runs have been so big that they've trouncedthe markets.But it's humbling for all of us as investors to know that most of the time when we act,the odds are stacked against us.It's interesting, Monish, that you would mention that Besenbach in the study.
OtherWe had him on the show and talked to him about it.And then he made this comment, and I hope you'll forgive me for saying this becauseI actually think it came across in a really nice way.But he said something, and I'm going to put it to the quote, and he said something alongthe lines of, I've been speaking with a lot of stock investors and they want to make moneyout of my study.And I'm not really sure what to do about that.And I was like, have you met stock investors?Yeah, of course.They're looking at your research and like, how do I make money out of it?And he was just more like, that's such an interesting finding.Let me see if I can get funding for another research project.And I was like, yes, welcome to the world of finance.Another question here, you were very kind here going into, before we hit record, youwere like, you have a tough job.You have to come up with questions no one has asked before.But the good thing here is that now with the transition to Greg, that part is going tobe new because we haven't had this transition before with Berkshire, but I can't help butask you about the $25 million annual compensation now.And I think together with a lot of other Berkshire shareholders, I was curious about what Buffettwould come up with as this is how a CEO should be compensated.And so it's all base.And then I don't know if Buffett has nudged Abel or probably not, but he takes his entirecompensation after tax and then buy Berkshire in the open market.If you are on the board, if you are God, how would you incentivize Greg Abel to alignhim most with shareholders?
QuestionerWell, for the last several years, both Greg and Ajit have been vice-chairmen and theyboth every year gotten exactly the same amount of compensation down to the last dollar.And I think the reason Warren and Charlie did that is to avoid envy and avoid anything.Even though these two guys are very high-quality individuals, they didn't want to go anywherenear the envy kicking in or whatever else.And so Greg has been paid 20-odd million for several years.And Warren has said about Ajit that many times when he's paid him, he felt he left out a
Warrenzero.Ajit is responsible single-handedly for creating more than a hundred billion, maybe 150 billionin value for Berkshire shareholders.So we can never compensate him enough.In the sense that if Berkshire paid him something like 30 billion or something, then it mightbe appropriate.But they haven't paid anywhere near that.And I think one time there was some hue and cry about Jamie Dimon's compensation.And I think Jamie was making like 25 or 30 million.And Warren said, anytime Jamie wants to come to Berkshire, I'm happy to double it.He was telling people that, you think Jamie's overpaid at 30 million?Well, I'm willing to give him a 60 million base salary tomorrow without even definingwhat he'd be doing for us.So Greg is seriously underpaid.Ajit is seriously underpaid.Also you have to understand Greg had a significant stake in Berkshire Hathaway Energy, and thatgot sold to Berkshire.So Greg's net worth, I think, is somewhere between 700 million and a billion, somewherein that range.So between us girls, not much of his net worth is in Berkshire.If I look at Ajit, for example, Ajit has been taking his salary after expenses, whateverelse, and just buying Berkshire stock, and he's been doing it for decades.So I would say that I don't know what Ajit's net worth is, but I would guess that maybe80% or more of his investment, maybe even 90% of more of his investments would be inBerkshire Hathaway.So Greg is plenty diversified.I think he came up with putting the money into Berkshire stock on his own, because Ithink he felt it's an appropriate thing to do.He's not at Berkshire for a paycheck.Greg is very smart.He doesn't need to work another day in his life, and any number of people will pay himmultiples of that to work for them.Yeah.Unlikely to say that, Manish, and it's important for a number like that not to stand alone.It's very difficult to be like, it's 25 million a lot.And if you do compare it to what other Fortune 10 CEOs are making, well, we can go on therabbit hole in terms of what the shareholders-Well, I'm just saying, look at Sundar's compensation.Look at Satya's compensation.I mean, look at those hired guns in those companies.And Sundar is like more than 500 million, I think, and might be underpaid.So Manish, I've been watching your videos for a very long time, as you know, and startingyour work for a long time.And you used to say to people, unless they wanted to invest and do the hard work themselves,
Questionerthat they could buy the S&P 500 or an index, whatever.And I've heard you recently talk more about not to give people a hot stock tip, but youtalk more about perhaps with the valuation of the S&P 500, look at Berkshire, for example.Again, not as a hot stock tip, but more as in, hey, it's super diversified, it's well-managed,it's a reasonable valuation, so on and so forth.But I wanted to tweak a bit of a question here, because let's say over the next 10 years,I think most people in the value investing community would be like, yeah, sure, Berkshireor the S&P 500.What if we said over the next 50 or 100 years, meaning the fingerprints of Buffett and Mungerwould slowly fade away, of Greg Abel for that matter, and then the S&P 500 has this built-inmechanism where it recycles out the bad companies and includes some good companies?So if I put you on the spot today, I know it's purely theoretical, for grandkids,they had to hold it for 50 or 100 years, should they be holding S&P 500 or Berkshire?
WarrenI think when you go through such a long period, I would switch from a single holdingto maybe around four.So I would say you could do the S&P one-fourth, you could do Berkshire one-fourth, and I wouldlike to get some good broad international index, which has more exposure to Asia and China andothers like that.So I would just make it more like four, credit between four indices like that,and Berkshire being one of them.
QuestionerOkay.That makes sense.Manish, we previously here on the show talked about how you like to play single-player games.And one example is that you didn't want to run TransTech because you felt you were herding cats.And I was speaking with your team here before our interview, and they asked me to include adisclaimer about me being an investor in Power BI Funds, which is, you're perfectly fine, I'llbe happy to include all the disclaimers I need to.But one of the reasons why I started my own company was because I didn't want to deal withall the politics and bureaucracy of being in the corporate world.And then the irony of life is that you build your own company, you build your team,and then all of a sudden you get this entangle of the same admin stuff that you're trying to escape.And I can't figure out if it's similar to being a retailer, and then you have to accept thatthere's just a small amount of shrinkage, it's just the cost of doing business.But then I was thinking, ask Manish, because he already thought about this,
Questionerhow much of your life can you structure around not having any admin stuff and how much can you truly delegate to a team?
OtherYeah, so I try to keep it front and center that Manish is not going to do well if he's lost in a team and such. So thankfully, I have a few very gifted people in the company, and I have delegated to the point of abdication. You know, just to tell you how much I just don't care for this stuff is, we use a software package to do our reviews for our people, and it does a 360 review. So it sends information to peers, superiors, subordinates, everything, and then all of that gets pulled together. And then it gives us a combined report of what the person thinks and what all these people above or below him think as well, right? And they send it to me as well to fill out for at least the people who are directly reporting to me. And I've never filled it out because that's just not Manish. So whenever I go, I tell them, I'm sorry, I just can't go here. And here's my three sentences about what's going on with this person. Warm regards, okay? And that's it. So I try not to get involved in things that I don't like, right? And I'm probably not being fair to those individuals because they would probably appreciate more granularity with me about what is going on, but it's just not me. And so I really don't want to spend my time on reviews. I mean, I hate reviews. I don't like to think about compensation changes and I have no problem with the change. I just don't want to spend brain cells on it. And so thankfully, I've been able to keep our team without going deep into that area, which I would just not like to do.
QuestionerYou live a good life, my friend. I think in your case, like I said, because you have more things than when you started, I think you can set things up in a way that can work better for you. So you have to think about what does Stig love to do, what does Stig not love to do, and who else can do what Stig doesn't love to do. And then just go with that.
OtherWell said. So if we continue in this framework of choosing, let's call the simplicity over complexity, could you talk to us about why you set up the PopRideWagons ETF and how that adds to your daily happiness?
OtherYeah. So our minimums in PopRide funds are very high. Funds are over a billion dollars and so it's multiple millions. And so it's just a very small sliver of folks that it would appeal to, and it's very concentrated and so on. And I always felt like we had so many people interested in wanting to invest,
Questioneret cetera, and really had no way to serve them.And I don't like to be elitist about it.So I really like the ETF because it allows us to work with your publicand also work with your public around the world, which is great.So that was one of the big motivations.Man, he's just a good person.I spoke with a friend here the other day, he's executive of a public company.And every time there was something going on, there's always someone with five sharesscreaming at him about how unhappy they are.And after I have gone through the motions with him, I was like,that's why you work in private companies.That's why you don't want that exposure.And so that was why I don't think that reflects well on me.I think it reflects really well on you that you're saying you could have this gated wallgarden, but you don't want to just deal with that.You also want to open up to the public.And perhaps it's because you have a thicker skin than me, but I would imagine you geta lot more feedback just by numbers, because now you open up to a lot more people.Or does that not phase you?Or does that feedback just not get to you whenever people are happy about whatever peopleare happy about?
OtherWell, one of the mental models that is very front and center for me is that I run intopeople who criticize Gandhi, who criticize Buffett, who criticize all kinds of peoplewho are, from my perspective, great or phenomenal.So if they can criticize Gandhi, then who am I?Like Buffett says, we can choose to live our life with an inner scorecard or an outerscorecard.And it's really important to live by an inner scorecard.So you are not going to silence the critics.And the critics will say all kinds of things, and they may be fair or unfair or whatever.But I love Terry Roosevelt's quote about the man in the arena, which it is not thecritic who counts.And I have that quote right here on my wall.I'm just going to read you a couple of parts of it, right?A subcredit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dustand sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs, who comes up short again and again.That's very important.Who comes up short again and again.He's human, okay?He's not perfect.He's not always able to prevail because there is no effort without error or shortcoming.But who does actually strive to do the deeds, who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions,who spends himself in a worthy cause, who at the best knows in the end the triumphs
Otherof high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly,so that his place shall never be those old and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.
OtherOkay.
So I just think that to me, it's all about the man in the arena.
And the man in the arena is not perfect.
He comes up short, he's bloodied and scarred and whatever, but he keeps persevering,ignores the critics, right?
And so I think that's our job is we don't need to be in a walled garden.
We can be in the open.
I mean, Munger and Buffett have been in an open field with all kinds of people sayingall kinds of things about him.
People criticize Warren all the time.
So I think, yeah, the outer scorecard, inner scorecard, those are great models to have.
OtherLet's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.
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OtherAll right. Back to the show.
Trey LockerbieYou know, I love that you say that. One of the things I've been thinking a lot about with this whole Buffett and Munger framework is this idea of it's really difficult to solve hard problems. So one of the best ways is just to complete it to avoid them.
OtherBut then at the same time, there are also things you want to take on.You know, it's sort of like you always want to make sure that you keep your promises.And one way to do that is not to make any promises.But it's also a poor life if you don't make promises to people that you really, reallycare for.But then you also have the struggle.But the struggle is where the meat is.That's still the good part.It's wonderful.If I can go back to, this sounds very operational after.This is a wonderful quote that you just listed up and here I am.But I know you invest in a lot of emerging countries.This is one of the many wonderful reasons why I like to invest with you.But do you ever have any issues withdrawing money from those countries?
OtherWell, our investments really very heavily are in one country outside the US, which isTurkey.And I was drawn to Turkey because it was screening cheap, but we didn't invest inthese businesses because we wanted Turkish exposure.We invested in these businesses because they were exceptional businesses available atcigar butt prices.And I think one thing to keep in mind is that for most businesses, almost all businesses,the micro is going to trump the macro.So how well we do with our Turkish businesses is probably 95% dependent on what the managersof those businesses do and what is the nature of the markets they are serving.It's really things inside and around the business.Very little has to do with the macro.So anytime I bring up some Turkish business to someone, they'll say, what about Erdogan?And quite frankly, the focus on going after the leadership of a country as being yournumber one factor you're concerned about is very myopic.The important thing is, what is the quality of these managers?What is the quality of the business?What is the size of the market?How well are they executing?I think those are much more important questions because usually the companies we've investedin, there is no real advantage the leader of Turkey is going to get by trying to goin and mess with those companies.He's got other fish to fry.So it's always important to focus around and inside the business.
Stig BrodersenOkay.That makes sense.I'm always trying to figure out some of that long tail risk.And one story that stuck with me, I used to play a lot of poker back in the day, and therewas one story that always sits with me and I think it's applicable to investing.And so for a guy who's been banned in Vegas, I thought you would, they thought you would
Questionerappreciate this story.So it's about poker.So in poker, you can have the so-called nuts, so that's the best hand.And so you can say that in life, nothing is zero or 100%, but then you can be like,hey, but in poker, if you have the nuts, you have the best hand.So what is your risk?And then there was this Dole Brunson, this old poker legend.He said, well, whenever you played in Texas back in the day, even if you had the nuts,someone would pull out a gun and then he would just take your money.So even 100%, there's not 100%, just so you know.So the reason why I mentioned that, that was sort of where I came from.I was thinking, I understand the thesis or like to think so in Turkey.And I was like, is there a long-
OtherWell, I told my investors, and you've probably read this, but I said, look,if you are invested in any of the Pabrai funds, and they're very concentrated,in some cases, one stock is more than half the fund.And I said that if you have less than 20% of your net worth with me,you have nothing to be concerned about.And if you have more than 20% of your net worth with me, you can trim the position.In fact, I recommend you trim it.So if someone has one fifth of their assets with Pabrai funds,and when you look through those one fifth, probably no more than 10%, 12% of theirnet worth is in one particular company, that's plenty of diversification.I mean, let's put it this way.Walmart went public in, I think, 1970 or 72.I think maybe 72, they went public.So it's been, what, 28 and 26, so like 54 years since they've been public.The heirs of Sam Walton own more than what they owned in terms of the percentage of Walmart thatthey own today versus when it IPO, because Walmart has bought back shares.46% of the company is owned by family members, 56 years after the IPO.And they are not diversified.Pabrai funds is diversified.The Walton family is not diversified.But the Walton family would be far worse off if they had listened to the helpers.You don't need to listen to the helpers.The helpers are just helping themselves.So the reality is that most entrepreneurs and most people who have become billionaireshave, through that journey, had 90%, 95%, 99% of their net worth in a single stock.And they don't lose sleep over it.So we somehow accept that some couple running a Chinese restaurant has 90% of everythingin the restaurant.They're just busy working.It's not even liquid.They don't lose sleep over it.
OtherAnd here we have a portfolio that we can buy and sell every day.And we want to own one of everything.I mean, that just makes no sense.
Stig BrodersenNo, I think it's a good point.And there was this expression, the cup is already full, which basically means that peoplealready have an idea of how the world is.And so actually, I was having a conversation with a guy about this some time ago.And we talked about you and your portfolio.And he talked about how concentrated you were.Not in a bad way, but he was just like, he just does it a different way, as I'm sureyou know.And my rebuttal to that was, well, that was because guys thinking someone would put allhis wealth into, let's say, Piper Eye Funds, which is probably, if you're not an investor,you probably want money to be fully invested in Piper Eye Funds.If you're an investor in Berkshire Hathaway, you want Buffett to be fully invested in BerkshireHathaway, but you can size accordingly.Like if you feel it's too much, put 10% then or 3% of your net worth or whatever in PiperEye Funds, and then you will diversify it.I think a lot of people are missing that whenever you're looking, oh, look at the concentrationhere.Yes, but what is your true exposure of that?And it probably comes from this feeling of control where we feel like if things are goingwell, we feel like it's okay.Oh, minus he's just doing his thing.But if we get something back, it's, oh, that doesn't look as...It's different if you run your own restaurant, you can just feel, I can just do this differently,but I can't control what's going on in Turkey or whatever.So I was reading one of the investment letters of an investment manager who shall go nameless.And they were very early to invest in Constellation Software, Mark Leonard,unbelievably great manager, built a great business, et cetera.And Constellation has compounded at 30 plus percent, 35% since they went public, whatever.And these guys were invested early, et cetera.Anytime the Constellation position got to 10% or more in this fund, they trim it.And in my opinion, that a great fund manager should, after 20 or 30 years,end up with 95% in one stock.Because what Warren has told us with the 4% rule, that's like a law of physics,is it is very difficult to find companies like Constellation.Constellation is a very rare company, just like the company I have in Turkey,Resas is a very rare company.And so when you find yourself in the happy position of owning it, owning a small portion of
Todd Combsit, and the guy is compounding, and he's doing his thing, and Mark Leonard, he now has cancer, he stepped away, he's the chairman, did not take a base salary. No bonus, no base salary. And he flew commercial. Then he said that, I'm too old for commercial. I need to fly business. So what he told the company is, I'm going to be flying business, but I'm going to be paying personally. So the company used to pay for his coach travel. Now the company pays nothing and he travels business. I mean, look at the ethics of the manager. Okay. And the other thing is, so when I look at a business like Constellation, I actually see a business like Constellation as far less risky than a business like Walmart. I think Constellation is a more resilient business than Walmart because it is 1,000 businesses in one. I mean, Walmart is also many businesses in one, but not 1,000. It may be, by the time you get to the sixth or seventh business of Walmart, the rest maybe very small. So Walmart is an exceptional company as well. But just if you look at resilience, I would bet, for me, Constellation is more resilient. So when we are managers, investment managers running a portfolio and these people who have invested in Constellation, they're listening to every conference call, they're reading every annual letter, they know that company code and they know how good that company is. And to me, it is desecration of the temple when you sit there and say, it's not going to go over 10%. The temple just got desecrated.
Stig BrodersenManish, I want to take the opportunity to talk about one of your older investments. Actually, it's the frontline investment back from the fall of 2002. And you might be thinking, that's such a ridiculous question. Is that really because Stig really wants to co-op with brand new questions? Is that why we're talking about something that happened 24 years ago? No, that's actually not why. I think, to be fair, one of the reasons is that I think that there's some similarity to the whole Metco thesis. But anyways, one of the things that asset managers love to talk about is their eras whenever they, if I put you on here, a bit on the spot, Manish, where they say, oh, I sold out too early. I only made 55% on frontline. I could have made 100x on that. And so sometimes asset managers like to talk about their emissions. But I think I wanted to talk about it. And I'm a bit sneaky about it. So please forgive me for this. But beyond the lesson of exiting too early with a wonderful business case here, what
Questionerkey insights or principles did you take away from the frontline investment that have influencedhow you approach similar opportunities today?
OtherSo as you know, with the frontline story, and just to give your listeners a Cliff Notesversion of it, is that I bought a stock with basically no downside.Very quickly, I doubled my money and patted myself on the back and exited.And then I saw it go up 200x after that or more.Now, in the fall of 2008, you know, God loves Manish a lot.And the proof of that is that in the fall of 2008, I was going to make a trip to SanJose, California.And I was saying, oh, I'm in San Jose, have some time.Who can I meet?And I see that Michael Burry lives in San Jose, California.And I don't know Michael Burry very well.But I sent him an email and said, Michael, this is Manish.You may or may not know me, but I would love to meet you in your office if you have sometime.And he says, come on over.Okay.And so it's like September 2008 or something.So I go to Michael Burry's office, which you saw in the big short.They showed his office.His office looks like that, all these papers all over and all that.And as soon as I go into his office, he launches into CDSs.Okay.And he's going, picking up all these things.Literally, he didn't even say, hi, Manish, welcome, whatever.He just goes straight into CDSs.And God, who loves me so much, brought me to the epicenter of CDSs.Okay.There's no human on the planet who could have explained CDSs to me and the whole housingmarket implosion, et cetera, which is going to happen in the future better than MichaelBurry.And it's going so far above my head.And so poor God, he thought Manish is a capable guy.And he said, if I just send him to Mecca and show him the sermon, everything will be obviousto him.But of course, God did not understand how dumb I am.Okay.Now, so this whole frontline thing happened and I got a double and went up to 100x.Last year, I happened to have a trip to Norway.I'd never been to Norway in my life.Okay.And I'm at this conference for offshore drillers, whatever, in Norway.That's where I went.Right.And they say that we have a field trip, which is not on the schedule.If you guys want to go on the field trip, the field trip is to the headquarters of frontline.Okay.So I said, you know, God has a sense of humor.Okay.I said, I'm going to go on this field trip because I know that's why he brought me toNorway, not for the offshore drillers.
OtherHe wants to rub my nose in.
OtherHe wants to rub my nose in my mistakes.
OtherSo I go to the headquarters of frontline.
OtherAnd we go into, and you know, it was an out-of-body experience.
OtherSo when I go into the headquarters of frontline, it's very high-end Persian drugs.
OtherIt's very ornate, extremely ornate, old school, mahogany interiors and all that.
OtherBut they have a lot of art all over the place.
OtherAnd they have a lot of ships, replicas of ships.
OtherAnd those replicas of ships, they're like four feet, five feet.
OtherThere's a VLCC.
OtherHere's another VLCC.
OtherThese are the very large crude carriers, which went up to 100X, right?
OtherI'm walking around and seeing that I owned 2% of all of this.
OtherAnd Fredrickson did all of that.
OtherAnd then I go, there's a door that opens and it's right on the harbor.
OtherI mean, it's the most beautiful building right on the harbor, all these boats and everything.
OtherSuch a nice office.
OtherI said, God wanted you to see this, Monish.
OtherHe didn't want you to die just knowing that was a 200X, whatever.
OtherAll those VLCC, everything got paid by a tiny rounding error of the returns on that investment.
OtherAnd so I like the way God has a sense of humor with me.
OtherI knew the frontline trip was not to, hey, I'm going to make you some money.
OtherIt was like, hey, I took you to the altar.
OtherYou decided not to get married.
OtherAnd I want to show you what could have been if you had gotten married.
OtherI love it.
OtherSo you wanted to know, I'm sorry, the similarity between frontline and what?
OtherWhat were you saying?
OtherThe Metco thesis.
OtherYeah.
OtherSo actually the Metco thesis is more similar to a company called Ipsco than it is to frontline.
OtherAnd you may recall that Ipsco was a Canadian steelmaker.
OtherAnd this was a beautiful math game.
OtherIt's like playing blackjack in Vegas.
OtherOkay.
OtherWhat a blessed life.
OtherI wake up one morning, I look at Ipsco and Ipsco is a Canadian company with a $40 stock price.
OtherThey have $15 a share in cash on their balance sheet, no debt.
OtherAnd they have publicly announced that for the next two years, they're going to produce$15 a share of cashflow each of the next two years.
OtherSo if you just hold the stock for two years, you have $45 in cash.
OtherStock is currently at 40.
OtherPlant, equipment, inventory, everything free.
OtherOkay.
OtherWhat's not to like about that?
OtherAnd then, of course, the issue was that in year three, it's a cyclical business.
OtherThey make tubular steel.
OtherCash flows could be negative.
OtherThey could go below zero.
OtherBut I said, you know, why entertain such morose thoughts?
QuestionerOkay.Let's just hold the stock for two years and see what happens.I want to see Mr. Market price this thing at $40 when there's $45 of cash on the balance sheet.So I put 10% of the funds in Ipsco.One year goes by and the company announces the third year is also going to be $15 a share.So now we are at $60 on the balance sheet.And the stock price by now has moved to about $90,which is a little bit more reasonable than the stupid $40 it was sitting at.Now, when it's sitting at $90, I'm thinking, Monish, we have long-term gains.We have a double.Well done.And we need to be out of here.Okay.And while I'm going through these thoughts,I wake up one day and I see the stock is at $155 a share.It jumped from $90 to $155 because some Swedish company came in and offered $160 a share.Now, Mark Twain says that truth is stranger than fiction because fiction has to make sense.Why that Swedish company didn't make an offer of $50 when it was $40 a shareis something I will never understand.But they did offer the $160.And one femtosecond after I read that, I exited my position.And I've always had great nostalgia about Ipsco.And then on Twitter, where about 260,000 of my close friends hang out,one of my close friends on Twitter posts,hey, Monish, this console energy position by David Einhorn looks like your Ipsco bet.And I read that and say, oh God, he still loves me so much.Because now through Twitter and through X, he gives me what he's thinking.So anytime someone says something like Ipsco, I'm going to look at it.Such a beautiful experience, no downside.So I look at console energy and the guy's right.It looks very similar to Ipsco.They are forward selling.They've got kind of visibility in the future.It's not as clean as Ipsco.Ipsco was just with a bow on it.It was just picture perfect.Like you couldn't do...This was not as clean as that, but it was very favorable risk rewardbecause of what the stock price was, what the cash flows were coming in and so on.And so I said, hallelujah, Ipsco is back.And we don't need to think much.We already have that framework in the head.So I went in and bought console and I started studying the whole business.And then I find that on the Metco side, console was thermal cold, a very good company.But on the Metco side, it's even more favorable.And so I switched the bet from console to alpha and warrior.And then one month before Charlie Munger passed away,
OtherI had never in all the years I was friends with Charlie Munger ever requested that he meet me.I always met him when he wanted to meet.So he would say, Monish, come for dinner.I'd come.I'd never ask for anything.He's too busy.But that year in 23, for the first time, I was feeling that I need to meet Charlie.So I reached out to his assistant and said, I'd really like to connect with Charlie.She said, oh, here's some dates and weekends, whatever, what do you want to do?So I picked a Saturday and I flew from Austin to meet Charlie.It turned out that exactly four weeks after that, he passed away.Okay.And so we had our last, what was to be our last meal together in October, 2023.And when I'm talking to Charlie, console energy comes up.And Charlie says that he's invested in console and this was in May of 2023.And I told Charlie, we both bought the same stock, a coal company,within two weeks of each other, without ever having spoken to each other about it.So I said, how strange is that?So he says, Monish, it was bound to happen.I'm glad, glad Charlie felt like that, like bound to happen.Why are you saying that?But then I told Charlie in October, I said, Charlie, I was orgasmic about console.But then I ran into Alpha, Alpha Metallurgical Resources.And it was even better than console.So I said, I'm going to send you a write-up on Alpha.And I think you should switch.You should switch from console to Alpha.So I sent him the write-up.And six days before he passed away, the Tuesday before Thanksgiving,he was still buying Alpha stock.What I love about Charlie is he's 99.9 years old.And it's irrelevant what his life expectancy is.He's still excited to make bets.And so he was buying Alpha literally till he passed away.And so, I mean, I think these are just great bets because no one wants to be in coal.It's a four-lettered word.And people don't want to even spend time thinking about it.And that's all okay with me.No problem.
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OtherRobert Leonard
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QuestionerI'm going to make an ambitious bridge here,Magnus, because people think that they're getting an investing showwhenever they listen to you, but you also give good marriage advice.And one of the things that you, for example, have told me is thatremember that the mistress is not always better than the wife.I just think the one line itself is just like, what did I ask?But anyway, it's one of the things you said to me.So I'm going to send one back to you that you should not go back to your ex-girlfriendunless it's for the right reasons and not for the wrong reasons.And the reason why I came to think of that, and I know it's a bit of a stretch here,but I was looking at Frontline, I was looking at the Metcall, and I had this idea of thissupply opportunity, whenever the demand goes parabolic and the supply can't go online,and then what happens and so on and so forth.And then it dawned to me, whenever someone like Magnus would double his money,but lose out on a 200 bagger, is there something lingering where we all know thatwe shouldn't be making the money back the way that we lost it orwhatever metaphorical way you want to put that?But how do you protect your own bias against saying, I should have had a 200 bagger inFrontline and now I see the same thing in this thesis or whatever, and so now I want to makethat bet because now I learned the framework?And so you're making those bets for the right reasons.How do you protect against yourself and only take the good from your past experiences and not thebad?
OtherWell, I think that's a wonderful question and it's a very important question.So one of the lessons that took me many decades to learn is not to sell a good company or greatcompany when it's fairly priced or even overpriced.I was always trying to sell things at 90% of fair value.And that was a very bad framework to have, because we don't know what actual fair valueis for a great business.Only when it gets egregiously overpriced, like there's no way you can justify it,is when you can consider exiting the business.
QuestionerBecause of the 4% rule that what Warren has shown us and what the stock market has shown usis that the true great compounders are few and far between.They are going to end up in your portfolio.And your job, when it ends up in your portfolio, is not to be trigger happy.And so the reality of investing is that this is a very forgiving business.So let's say, for example, there's some controversy whether Walmart was part of thenifty-fifty or not in the 1970s.Let's take the case it was part of the nifty-fifty.It was 2% allocation to Walmart out of 50 stocks.And let's say the other 49 stocks went to zero.So we made a $100,000 bet in 1970 or whatever, or 1972, and 98,000 of that has gone to zero.All the companies that were there, which some of them were very good companies likeMcDonald's and Coke and all of that, let's say they all went to zero.And you only had the 2% that you invested in Walmart.If you carried that till today, you blew out the S&P.So you blew out the S&P with a 98% error rate holding on to just one businessbecause that one business outperformed the S&P by so much that it outperformed significantly.So there's a very strong asymmetry here where the winners can be truly spectacular winners.So it's not so much that if you hold on to five companies,that it may have been better to sell three of them.You don't need to be optimized.You own all five, and that allows you to own the one or two that just go spectacular.So the important thing is not to get cute.So, for example, if you look at our wagons fund, right?We have the Constellation businesses in there, the Mark Leonard Constellation businesses.They have a good future.I have no crystal ball that tells me what those companies look like 10 or 20 years from now,but I want to let them run.I want to let them run.We have the coal companies.I also don't know what those look like 10, 20 years from now.We want to let those run too.It looks favorable.We want to let them run.So we have some Turkish bets in there too, like Reysas, et cetera.We want to let them run.And I think that when you put enough of these things, which have great characteristics,the world is a messy place.Things will come from left field.We don't know what happens to these different companies at what point.But it's almost inconceivable that all of them fall apart.That Constellation falls apart, and the coal bets fall apart, and Turkey falls apart,
Otherand our offshore drillers fall apart.Everything falls apart.In fact, I just can't see that.I can see that maybe one or two of them might have some issues, but I don't see it acrossthe board.So we don't need to be right to the fourth decimal.We also don't need to know which one of these is going to be the one.They're all there.Let them all run.Let them go do their thing.We just watch in the sidelines, see what happens.And that's it.
Stig BrodersenSo whenever you're saying that, and you're mentioning Walmart and saying there are 50stocks, and you need to hold on, and it's a 2% position.And I think I'm probably only one of your investors in Powered by Funds who wants youto be more concentrated, because I have this bias where I feel the highest conviction ideas,and that's what you're doing.Personally, I only have five stocks, probably because I don't understand a lot of things.And so I have a bias towards concentration.But then to your point, if you have 50 stocks, and then just 2% allocation, you just holdon for 50 years, and then it beats the S&P 500, if the 49 others go to zero, how do youthink about position sizing?Are you thinking differently about the 10 by 10 framework, for example, in Powered byFunds than we talked about in the past?Or how should we square the circle?
OtherWell, the ETF laws and rules require plenty of diversification, much more diversificationthan I would naturally, that's my natural bent.So we are not going to have large positions there, which is fine.And in Powered by Funds, we've never wanted to put more than 10% into anything.So that's also fine.And so basically, I think at the end of the day, if you've got a spectacular winner,it's going to take care of itself, even with a small position size, as long as you don'ttrim, as long as you don't desecrate the temple, we're all fine.And so we don't need to go all in with a big conviction.The winners are going to get there.Even no matter what they wear, they start out, they'll get there.So just be relaxed and patient, and they'll be fine.In fact, that's exactly what happens in index investing.We don't get to see what's happening with the sausage factory, how the sausage is madewith the index.But effectively, what's happening in the index is that it keeps the winners for a very longtime.And the few 4%, 5% of companies are driving the whole end result.
Stig BrodersenI'm looking at all these mental models
Questionerand trying to figure out how to go back to first principles.And you're typically in trouble whenever you're listening to someone who's talking about firstprinciples, because they seem to go all kinds of directions whenever you do.But I was trying to think about Darwin and what he taught us about survival and adaptation.And I wanted to give you that framework, and please feel free to question the premise inthe first place, but have you learned anything from Darwin about how to avoid ruin and compoundcapital in investing?
Neeraj MishraWell, there's a wonderful book written by a great investor called Pulak Prasad calledWhat I Learned From Darwin About Investing.And it's one of the best investment books I ever read.I think it's a wonderful book.And in fact, I learned a lot from Pulak.And Pulak is an interesting guy.He lives in Singapore, and he runs a fund.It's, I think, about $5 billion or so.I don't think they're taking new capital in.He's posted his entire portfolio on their homepage.And basically, there's no movement in that portfolio.If they buy a company, they're married to the company.They might do five years of research before they buy a company.But once they buy the company, they're pretty much all in forever.It's a very wonderful framework where they think of themselves as owners of these businesses.And these are businesses with truly exceptional corporate governance,very well-run businesses.They can be very basic businesses, but they're really well-run.So I think Darwin says that the species that survive are not the strongest or the biggest,but he says, the ones that are the fittest.It's survival of the fittest.And I think that applies to investments big time.So if we look at a company like, let's say, you look at a company like Microsoft,I mean, the evolution that business has gone through over the last six decades or whateverthey've been around is unbelievable.I mean, they've continuously reinvented themselves.And each time they've reinvented...I mean, Microsoft was threatened with extinction so many times.And if they had not zigzagged, they would have gone extinct like everyone else did.And so that's an example of a business that's a very fit business.Even though it was a big business, what was important was the fitness of the business.And when we look at a business like Walmart, for example, that's also a very fit businessbecause they've been so fanatical about delivering value to their customers and efficiency and
Othertaking costs out of the system and all of that, that they've taken out everyone andbuilt their footprint.So yes, we want to have the fittest businesses.And one of the definitions of fitness is lack of leverage.So when you look at these businesses, you want to see management teams that have theability to zigzag and you have a capital structure that allows you the freedom to zigzag.And so I think, yeah, there's a lot of things that you can learn from Darwin that you canapply in the corporate world, which would be helpful.
OtherWell, let's jump from Darwin and then to our friend, Guy.Especially in, I think Guy would appreciate that we make that jump, but especially inthis tricky situation.But I wanted to round off the episode by asking you, Manish, what's the most important thingthat you learned from Guy, both whenever it comes to investing, but also about livinga good life?
OtherYeah, well, first of all, Guy's situation is very unfortunate.Very sad, actually.I was so heartbroken, probably still heartbroken.Guy and I are very different people.And I would have never predicted that someone like him would be my best friend.I mean, we are so different in how we think about things.And I recently wrote a letter to Guy, old-fashioned letter.And I told him that I've often wondered, why do we have a connection?Why do I feel such a strong connection with you?Why do you feel such a strong connection with you?And I told him that I concluded that it was because he sees me.You remember the Avatar movie, I See You?You don't remember, you have to go back and see the movie again.Okay, you got too much going on.You watch the movie.So, in the movie, there's a point and they bring it up several points where they makethe comment, I see you.And I see you is very deep.And what I felt with Guy, I still feel is, he gets me in a way almost no one gets me.And I get him in a way almost nobody gets him.So, I told him, Guy, I think the reason we have this connection is because you see meand I see you.And I remember that one time, Guy and I were going to take an overnight train in India.From Mumbai to Delhi.The train leaves at around 4pm from Mumbai and it gets into Delhi around 10 o'clock inthe morning.It's an overnight train.And it's a beautiful train.It's the Rajdhani.It's a very nice train.And he and I had a two-person private compartment.And I told him, Guy, I want to just tell you something.Just when the journey was about to start.
OtherI said, you see that there's that button there.That's a bell.And I said, when you press that bell, the butler is going to show up and the butlerwill do whatever you want.Okay.But I said that I want you, the first time you press that bell, to drown the butler incash.Okay.I said, the first time you press the bell, don't ask him for anything.Just hand over.And I said, drowning in cash in India, $25 is enough.Okay.He's almost going to have a cardiac at that point.So I said, just ring the bell.So he rings the bell.The butler shows up.Guy gives him the $25.And I'm going to take a little detour for a second before I continue the story.Another friend of mine who used to be an engineer installing cellular networks in Africa,used to work for AT&T.So they'd go to different African countries and he was in charge.So he said that one time he went to Ghana.Okay.And they always put him up in the best hotel, Accra, right on the ocean.Beautiful hotel, right?So he says that the porter carrying my luggage to my villa, I gave him a dollar, $1 tip.And the guy looked at the dollar and he said, he gave me a full military salute.Okay.And he said, no one has ever given me that type of salute or that type of respect ever in my life.So he said, I gave him another dollar and said, can you please do it again?He said, I was giving him a lot of dollars because of the salute.He said it was awesome.So anyway, coming back to Guy.And so the guy shows up, gives him the $25.He's almost died.It's like almost half his month's salary or something.And he said, yes, sir.What can I do for you?So Guy says, nothing right now, please.This was just, we just wanted to say that we're so happy to have you, et cetera.And the guy couldn't believe, he couldn't believe that we had called him.And I said, now Guy, feel free to ring that bell as often as you want.Okay.And he's going to drop everyone else and be here.Okay.Now Guy loves to have tea.Right.And I said, don't you want some tea, Guy?He says, yeah.So in that 17-hour journey, Guy must have rung that bell like 30 times.Okay.Like there was tea coming every 45 minutes.And then he's FaceTiming his wife, Lori.He's in an orgasmic state.Okay.He's in an orgasmic state in a third-world country with a train, whatever.And he's telling his wife, Lori, that in the compartment, we don't have to go to a diningcar.In the compartment, they bring me my tea, they bring me biscuits, they bring me this,
Otherbring me that.
OtherAnd then I tell them it's slightly cold, they bring me a new one, this, that, whatever.
OtherAnd then he says, for dinner, white tablecloth, everything in our suite, right?
OtherAnd I'm thinking, he's continuously FaceTiming his wife, telling her this, that, whateverelse is going on.
OtherAnd I told Guy, Guy, I see if you were traveling with anyone else, they would not be able tounderstand what's really going to get you excited.
OtherAnd so that was just a wonderful experience.
OtherAnd I felt many times when I'm doing something, he'll make some comment and I'll say, what?
OtherHe's looking straight into me.
OtherHe knows exactly what I need.
OtherIt was just so beautiful.
Stig BrodersenWonderful.
Stig BrodersenI see you.
OtherWatch the movie again.
Stig BrodersenYou said Avatar, didn't you?
OtherAvatar, yeah.
Stig BrodersenYeah, yeah.
Stig BrodersenGo out and watch Avatar.
Stig BrodersenLet that be the final words for this episode.
Stig BrodersenManish, thank you.
Stig BrodersenThank you so much for your service to the value investing community.
Stig BrodersenAnd how poetic that you say all these wonderful things about Guy.
Stig BrodersenI'm sure he would say the same thing about you.
Stig BrodersenAnd we published this over the Berkshire weekend.
Stig BrodersenAny concluding remarks here before I let you go?
OtherWell, Stig, I always enjoy ourconversations and you always impress me so much because every time I'm thinking, Stig is goingto have such a hard time.
OtherHe's asked me everything already.
OtherHe's a poor guy, has to watch so many hours of videos and all that.
OtherBut you outdo yourself each time.
OtherIt's so much fun.
OtherThank you so much.
Stig BrodersenOh, thank you so much for saying so.
OtherAll right, Manish.
OtherWe'll see you soon.
OtherThanks for listening to TIP.
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