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Mohnish Pabrai's Session with Columbia Business School (CSIMA) on February 14, 2024

Pabrai2024-03-22podcast45:51Open original ↗

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SpeakersQuestioner43Other17Warren5Todd Combs3Greg Abel1Ajit Jain1Ted Weschler1
Other[Music][Music]is it's a such a pleasure to have youis it's a such a pleasure to have youis it's a such a pleasure to have you here at SEMA here in columia studenthere at SEMA here in columia studenthere at SEMA here in columia student Investment Management uh Club atInvestment Management uh Club atInvestment Management uh Club at Columbia business school and uh you knowColumbia business school and uh you knowColumbia business school and uh you know it's a pleasure really a pleasure toit's a pleasure really a pleasure toit's a pleasure really a pleasure to have you I know many of the studentshave you I know many of the studentshave you I know many of the students read your books read about a lot of theread your books read about a lot of theread your books read about a lot of the things you write and and you know somethings you write and and you know somethings you write and and you know some of your YouTube videos and yeah whyof your YouTube videos and yeah whyof your YouTube videos and yeah why don't you start and uh then we get youdon't you start and uh then we get youdon't you start and uh then we get you some okay yeah
Questionerit's a pleasure and honorsome okay yeah it's a pleasure and honorsome okay yeah it's a pleasure and honorto be be with you guys um I always feelto be be with you guys um I always feelto be be with you guys um I always feel that Colombia it's Hallowed Groundthat Colombia it's Hallowed Groundthat Colombia it's Hallowed Ground because Ben Graham and and the Legacybecause Ben Graham and and the Legacybecause Ben Graham and and the Legacy there and Buffett being a student Etc sothere and Buffett being a student Etc sothere and Buffett being a student Etc so it's a it's always wonderful to be withit's a it's always wonderful to be withit's a it's always wonderful to be with the students and um in the pre Zoom erathe students and um in the pre Zoom erathe students and um in the pre Zoom era I used to come to Bruce greenall's classI used to come to Bruce greenall's classI used to come to Bruce greenall's class and that was always a lot of fun and uhand that was always a lot of fun and uhand that was always a lot of fun and uh maybe I can speak for maybe five or 10maybe I can speak for maybe five or 10maybe I can speak for maybe five or 10 minutes and then maybe we can go to Q&Aminutes and then maybe we can go to Q&Aminutes and then maybe we can go to Q&A just a little bit of a preamble then
Questionerjust a little bit of a preamble then take it from there I think you guys might have seen in bit's letter this year that last year actually that he had mentioned that basically 12 ideas or 12 Investments that he made for Burk show over 58 years were responsible for most of the outcome you know these 12 decisions you know one of them might have been hiring a Jane you know the coke investment and AMX and cap cities and so on and C candy and so on so one of the questions that comes up is you know I think over 58 years my estimate is that Buffett probably made at least 3 or 400 important decisions and investing decisions and the hit rate if you will was basically like 4% 3 or 4% and it's a 3 or 4% hit rate for Warren Buffett which doesn't leave a lot of Hope for the rest of us mere models and the question you know the question comes up
Questionerquestion you know the question comes up is why would it take even someone likeis why would it take even someone likeis why would it take even someone like Warren Buffett to find one goodWarren Buffett to find one goodWarren Buffett to find one good idea approximately every five years youidea approximately every five years youidea approximately every five years you know and I thought about that and Iknow and I thought about that and Iknow and I thought about that and I think that the five-year period mightthink that the five-year period mightthink that the five-year period might actually be almost like a law ofactually be almost like a law ofactually be almost like a law of investing law of value investing and theinvesting law of value investing and theinvesting law of value investing and the the reason is that you know for for usthe reason is that you know for for usthe reason is that you know for for us to to get to a conviction level on ato to get to a conviction level on ato to get to a conviction level on a particular investment or idea that'sparticular investment or idea that'sparticular investment or idea that's going to move the needle means that wegoing to move the needle means that wegoing to move the needle means that we have a a differentiatedhave a a differentiatedhave a a differentiated view from most of the market because ifview from most of the market because ifview from most of the market because if our view was similar to the market thenour view was similar to the market thenour view was similar to the market then that would be reflected in the marketthat would be reflected in the marketthat would be reflected in the market and there wouldn't be supern normaland there wouldn't be supern normaland there wouldn't be supern normal resultsresultsresults possible so it's it's a it's a kind of apossible so it's it's a it's a kind of apossible so it's it's a it's a kind of a let's say a differentiated view thatlet's say a differentiated view thatlet's say a differentiated view that causes the outsizecauses the outsizecauses the outsize returns and I think the differentiatedreturns and I think the differentiatedreturns and I think the differentiated views they fall into two categories theyviews they fall into two categories theyviews they fall into two categories they fall into categories where we werefall into categories where we werefall into categories where we were delusional which means that we thought
Questionerdelusional which means that we thought that we had a differential differentiated view but in reality we were wrong uh so we make the investment you know thinking oh yeah i' I've figured out something the market hasn't Etc and this is going to be great and it doesn't work so those don't count in his 12 decisions in 58 years but he may have had probably one or two dozen of those types of situations where he had very strong conviction which ended up not being accurate and the second is that you're actually right on the money where you got a differentiated view out size returns and I think one of the things that Charlie Munger used to say was that if they had not been learning machines over that 58e period then their record would be a shadow of what it actually was in fact nobody would even talk about them so basically the knowledge base and information and
Questionerknowledge base and information and understanding about the way the world works that they started out with 58 years ago was relatively small and simple versus what they figured out over the years so to give you an example Warren made an investment in Burlington Northern Railway and first he made an investment in the stock where he bought you know some portion of the company and then I think maybe a few years after that he made an offer to buy the whole company and they mentioned a few times that they were always negative on railroads for most of their career they said that railroads were actually a poor investment they were very regulated unionized and a lot of inefficiencies but what happened is that they noticed a few things which caused them to change their mind so one of the things that happened is the the the railroads over
Greg Abelhappened is the the the railroads over time basically redid the bridges theytime basically redid the bridges theytime basically redid the bridges they had you know thousands of bridges theyhad you know thousands of bridges theyhad you know thousands of bridges they redid the bridges one by one so itredid the bridges one by one so itredid the bridges one by one so it allowed double stack cars to goallowed double stack cars to goallowed double stack cars to go underneath them so instead of havingunderneath them so instead of havingunderneath them so instead of having single stack you could do double stacksingle stack you could do double stacksingle stack you could do double stack and the the second is that you know withand the the second is that you know withand the the second is that you know with diesel costs and all of that and uh thediesel costs and all of that and uh thediesel costs and all of that and uh the the railroads also started becoming morethe railroads also started becoming morethe railroads also started becoming more efficient in terms of how how they wereefficient in terms of how how they wereefficient in terms of how how they were running uh the level of employment therunning uh the level of employment therunning uh the level of employment the length of the trains and so on solength of the trains and so on solength of the trains and so on so basically Tipping Point came where itbasically Tipping Point came where itbasically Tipping Point came where it became much better alternative to thebecame much better alternative to thebecame much better alternative to the best alternative which would have beenbest alternative which would have beenbest alternative which would have been trucks and trucks of course you know atrucks and trucks of course you know atrucks and trucks of course you know a lot of Labor and and stuff they can golot of Labor and and stuff they can golot of Labor and and stuff they can go anywhere and they can go short distancesanywhere and they can go short distancesanywhere and they can go short distances but anytime you had to go long distancesbut anytime you had to go long distancesbut anytime you had to go long distances then the the railroads had an advantagethen the the railroads had an advantagethen the the railroads had an advantage both Warren and Charlie said that theyboth Warren and Charlie said that theyboth Warren and Charlie said that they were actually lit to the party the guy
Todd Combswere actually lit to the party the guy who runs Bill Gates's money at cas a Investments actually figured it out a few years before them and I think even Bill lman may have figured it out a few years before them so the thing is that to go through this learning about railroads for example where you have a view and then you go through a change in that view that doesn't happen overnight that takes a lot of drill down to get to a conviction level and such so when you look at a you know fiveyear time frame it could have easily taken them two or 3 months or more to really get their arms around railroad so first they would have had to make a made a decision that there is meat on this bone so it's worth studying and it's worth looking at maybe destroying one of our best loved ideas which is railroads are stupid and then you go into the rabbit hole of railroads
Questioneryou go into the rabbit hole of railroads which might be 2 3 4 months or something and there's also a lot of rabbit holes you go down which end up being dry wels which is you go down the rabbit hole and there is no meat on the board and there is no differentiated view but the time is gone so basically if you think about these three Monon type deep Di in a 5year period you can do 20 of them if you had something to do every 3 months and you know maybe one out of three that you think is great actually turns out to be great so if you actually did 20 you might have three or four that look interesting and then one is actually a good idea if you look at their investment in C's candy so C candy was a major eye opener for Warren and Charlie because the only thing Warren did in terms of interfering with management every year was that on January 1st he
Questionerevery year was that on January 1st he changed the prices of all the candy himself so he would sit down with the C's candy price list and he would look at the inflation rate and he would like increase it at two times the inflation and what they noticed year after year was that there was no like they increased the prices 15% and volumes were fine then they increased at another 10% or 15% the next year and volumes were still fine and it was a huge learning for them I mean there was a huge step function learning for them to really they were actually in shock that there was no drop in volumes and actually if you think about it so if you you know sees is mostly a California story right it's it's really mostly in California and in this period from you know the 1970s till maybe let's say 1990 let's say 1970 to 1990 that 20- year period in that 20e period California GDP
Questionerperiod in that 20e period California GDP probably grew at a higher rate than US GDP because it was going through so much growth maybe it grew at like 4% year or something so the se's volume over that period and I'm extrapolating based on you know data that bksh has given about you know how many pounds are sold and all that basically se's volumes from from the time they acquired till now has gone up less than 2% a year in that period from 70 to 90 it probably went up around 2% like half of California GDP growth part of that might have been push back against these huge price increases Warren was shoving down people's throats along with the candy okay but he saw that hey I'm pushing this down and it's not declining and maybe he knew that yeah maybe it would have been four or 5% growth if I didn't push the volume if I didn't push the the pricing up but
Questionerdidn't push the the pricing up but probably in that math equation it worked better to have higher volumes so that learning with this you know annual tweaking of C's price list eventually led to the investment in Coke and I'm pretty sure their investment in Coke was at least 6 months in the rabbit hole because you know Munger wrote that essay which is about how coke becomes 2 trillion eventually and all of that but basically the coke investment actually took about two decades to figure out so they wouldn't have been able to make the coke investment in 75 or 80 or 85 it was really in the late 80s when they had enough time screwing around with seas that they actually got a big education on Brands and so Buffett never understood brands at all and suddenly there was this whole new area of this intangible Mo Etc which was tremendous
Questionerintangible Mo Etc which was tremendous you know and so then he was able toyou know and so then he was able toyou know and so then he was able to leverage that into other consumerleverage that into other consumerleverage that into other consumer package goods and even now the Applepackage goods and even now the Applepackage goods and even now the Apple investment is a brand investment and soinvestment is a brand investment and soinvestment is a brand investment and so the the Apple investment actually isthe the Apple investment actually isthe the Apple investment actually is like 40 years in the making you know 40like 40 years in the making you know 40like 40 years in the making you know 40 or 50 years in the making so I justor 50 years in the making so I justor 50 years in the making so I just wanted to share that it is very muchwanted to share that it is very muchwanted to share that it is very much worth going down the rabbit holesworth going down the rabbit holesworth going down the rabbit holes because the payoffs are so big it's alsobecause the payoffs are so big it's alsobecause the payoffs are so big it's also very much okay if we hit a lot of dryvery much okay if we hit a lot of dryvery much okay if we hit a lot of dry Wells that's perfectly fine you onlyWells that's perfectly fine you onlyWells that's perfectly fine you only need to get rich once and one of theseneed to get rich once and one of theseneed to get rich once and one of these rabbit holes could be a mother Lord andrabbit holes could be a mother Lord andrabbit holes could be a mother Lord and so you don't need a lot ofso you don't need a lot ofso you don't need a lot of differentiated views and a lot of thingsdifferentiated views and a lot of thingsdifferentiated views and a lot of things so even like I would say that Buffettso even like I would say that Buffettso even like I would say that Buffett and Munger coming up with this one dozenand Munger coming up with this one dozenand Munger coming up with this one dozen differentiated things I mean likedifferentiated things I mean likedifferentiated things I mean like insurance is a terrible business it wasinsurance is a terrible business it wasinsurance is a terrible business it was a terrible business for Burkshire for 20a terrible business for Burkshire for 20a terrible business for Burkshire for 20 years from the mid-60s to the mid 80syears from the mid-60s to the mid 80s
Ajit Jainyears from the mid-60s to the mid 80s till Ajit chain showed up and when Ajittill Ajit chain showed up and when Ajittill Ajit chain showed up and when Ajit leaves the scene that business willleaves the scene that business willleaves the scene that business will shrink for them there is no successorshrink for them there is no successorshrink for them there is no successor for that business so they had an anomalyfor that business so they had an anomalyfor that business so they had an anomaly in a Jan showing up and they had thein a Jan showing up and they had thein a Jan showing up and they had the second anomaly in Geico showing up whichsecond anomaly in Geico showing up whichsecond anomaly in Geico showing up which is more brand insurance and so basicallyis more brand insurance and so basicallyis more brand insurance and so basically even that was a situation which took a aeven that was a situation which took a aeven that was a situation which took a a long time to basically figure out andlong time to basically figure out andlong time to basically figure out and kind of know what you what you can dokind of know what you what you can dokind of know what you what you can do and what's going on and so on and itand what's going on and so on and itand what's going on and so on and it worked out so basically I think thoseworked out so basically I think thoseworked out so basically I think those are that's really what I wanted to shareare that's really what I wanted to shareare that's really what I wanted to share is that basically what we're looking foris that basically what we're looking foris that basically what we're looking for is we're looking for anomalies and theis we're looking for anomalies and theis we're looking for anomalies and the anomalies are not just you know sittinganomalies are not just you know sittinganomalies are not just you know sitting there ready to be given to us on athere ready to be given to us on athere ready to be given to us on a platter we have to go into differentplatter we have to go into differentplatter we have to go into different rabbit holes we have to decide whichrabbit holes we have to decide whichrabbit holes we have to decide which rabbit holes May hold some promiserabbit holes May hold some promiserabbit holes May hold some promise because there's 50,000 rabbit holes tobecause there's 50,000 rabbit holes tobecause there's 50,000 rabbit holes to go down and if each one took you know 3
Questionergo down and if each one took you know 3 months that's 200,000 quarters which you don't have so you've got like maybe a 100 rabbit holes or maybe 150 rabbit holes if you're lucky and um got to make them count so you don't need to make all of them count but you need to make some of them count so those were some some thoughts I wanted to share with you about why even Buffett and Munger only had 12 hits in 58 years right so thank you for the insights we'll we'll kick off with some with some Q&A I think uh you know maybe to build up on on on your thoughts here uh I think I I read your book uh some years ago about dando investing and I think it doesn't sound very similar to kind of the philosophy you are talking about now and I wanted you to share maybe your view of like how your investment philosophy has evolved uh during these maybe 25 years well I
Questioneruh during these maybe 25 years well I uh during these maybe 25 years well I mean I think the evolution I've gone through is I started out in the mid90s as a mesque great businesses investor and then there was this mega bubble theom bubble 99 2000 wasn't just it was Tech and a lot of things in fact I most of my portfolio was Tech in the '90s and I got concerned that these valuations and numbers made no sense I mean we had my Microsoft at you know 600 billion and with single digigit billion cash flows you know 600 billion market cap like 70 trailing earnings like 70 times earnings or something and I just didn't think that was going to lead to the holy grail and it turned out that that was the case Microsoft then flatlined for the next 13 years in fact it didn't Flatline it was a pretty violent ride lost a huge portion of its value and then came back but basically you held it from 99 to
Questionerbut basically you held it from 99 to 2012 you basically had like zero returns and so in the 99 2000 time time frame I switched to hardcore gr and the reason I switched is because that's where I was Finding opportunities I mean the the day the NASDAQ pried I think March 7th or March 9th 2000 was the day that Burkshire hit a multi-year low so the NASDAQ hit 5,000 for the first time in March 200000 and Burkshire went down to like I don't know 40,000 or something from 70,000 dropped a lot literally people were selling Burkshire toy pets.com you know that's what was going on at that time so basically I thought the great businesses and the tech businesses were very high risk at those valuations and so I moved to you know buying Funeral Homes at two times earnings and steel mills at three times earnings and that sort of thing and that worked really well and what I should
Otherworked really well and what I should have done in hindsight is around 2012 or 2013 I should have switched back because by then the the great businesses the valuations had come into line you know they' gone through all their Corrections and everything but I had become so comfortable in the wonderful world of Ben Graham I probably was late by about five or six years started to make that switch in 2018 or something but also in this business just like I talked about with Warren and Charlie you have to be a continuous learning machine and so on a broader basis I think this is kind of how my journey was you know Munger Graham Munger you know basically that's kind of how it went but that would be too simplistic I think also what happens over that 25 year period or 30 years almost is that we learn a lot of things about how things work in many different
Otherabout how things work in many different places or many different industries that we didn't know so knowledge is cumulative and so that helps as well the dando investor I mean the book is like 17 years old so clearly I've gone through some Evolution since then and yeah if I were to rewrite it then I would have a little different take on it
Questionerhe great thank you because I know so many students want to ask some questions I'm gonna turn the stage to some questions from the students Manish my name is Chris it's a pleasure to meet you um I know you're a dear friend of Charlie's and um we're going to miss him a lot would love to get your take on the future Berkshire now that Charlie's not there
Otheryeah I mean I think you know Warren has said I think almost the exact quote is that Burkshire has been been built to the blueprint of Charlie Munger
Warrenbuilt to the blueprint of Charlie Munger and my role has been that of a general contractor you know so basically in effect what Warren is saying is that Charlie is the architect of Burkshire and Warren was told what to do and he executed and then you know he's repeatedly used to say that he would call Charlie the abominal noad right because Charlie would say no to everything and I think the reason Buffett said that is that there are so many things waren wanted to do and of course he was a senior partner and Charlie was a junior partner and sometimes a senior partner did things without talking to the junior partner like the purchase of jry for example which was actually not did not work well for the senior partner for some time time there was some indigestion because the senior partner knew that the junior partner would shut him down most of the
Questionerpartner would shut him down most of the time and many times a junior partner would tell the senior partner Hey listen we need to go big on Costco you know Warren has such an aversion to paying up and then Charlie would tell him Warren something things are worth paying up for and Warren just still couldn't get there I don't know whether you guys have heard the joke I think this was in the 2011 annual meeting it's on the in the footage but basically Warren and charliie come back from lunch and Warren says you know Charlie and I were on this airplane that Got Hijacked and Charlie you know he's only can only see from one eye First Eye that looks at Warren a glass eye so he's completely turned over looking at him saying we got like he's asking like We Got Hijacked so and then Warren ignores him and say yeah we got hijacked the kidnappers I we got
Otherhijacked the kidnappers I we got kidnapped and the kidnappers made akidnapped and the kidnappers made akidnapped and the kidnappers made a demand of several million dollars to ourdemand of several million dollars to ourdemand of several million dollars to our families to release us and the familiesfamilies to release us and the familiesfamilies to release us and the families basically told the kidnappers look thesebasically told the kidnappers look thesebasically told the kidnappers look these two guys basically do nothing they justtwo guys basically do nothing they justtwo guys basically do nothing they just sit around and they're like useless sosit around and they're like useless sosit around and they're like useless so you can do what you want with them we'reyou can do what you want with them we'reyou can do what you want with them we're not sending any few million dollarsnot sending any few million dollarsnot sending any few million dollars because we'd rather just keep the moneybecause we'd rather just keep the moneybecause we'd rather just keep the money so the kidnappers get really pissed offso the kidnappers get really pissed offso the kidnappers get really pissed off and they tell Warren and Charlie thatand they tell Warren and Charlie thatand they tell Warren and Charlie that not only are we not getting paid we'renot only are we not getting paid we'renot only are we not getting paid we're going to lose two bullets now to killgoing to lose two bullets now to killgoing to lose two bullets now to kill you guys so before we we kill you guysyou guys so before we we kill you guysyou guys so before we we kill you guys do you have any Last Wish Charley raisesdo you have any Last Wish Charley raisesdo you have any Last Wish Charley raises his hand and says I'd like to speak onehis hand and says I'd like to speak onehis hand and says I'd like to speak one more time about the virtues of investingmore time about the virtues of investingmore time about the virtues of investing in Costco and Warren raises his hand andin Costco and Warren raises his hand andin Costco and Warren raises his hand and says shoot mesays shoot mesays shoot me first okay so we had the junior partnerfirst okay so we had the junior partnerfirst okay so we had the junior partner and Senior partner interesting dynamicand Senior partner interesting dynamicand Senior partner interesting dynamic and I had a lot of discussion with
Questionerand I had a lot of discussion with Charlie about you know dynamic of that relationship and I told Charlie I said Charlie you are a type A guy you're not a kind of guy that I see as someone who plays second fiddle to anybody all your other relationships with business partners you are definitely the senior partner you are not only just the SE senior partner you are the dictator basically you know pretty much running you know calling all the shots and then here in Burkshire you're junior so he said to me he said well Mish it was very smart of me to become the junior partner to Warren Buffett and so anyway I think they had a great relationship I don't think Burk show be anywhere near what it is today it would not even be in my opinion 10% of the current market cap 5% of the current market cap if there was no Charlie Munger but I also feel that
Questionerno Charlie Munger but I also feel that going forward these two guys are such iconic Figures it's kind of like the founding fathers of the US are gone like you know more than 200 years back and you know system still running all the deadlock in Washington everything else the system keeps running I mean the country's cranking and everything's at alltime highs and everything else so I think it will be the culture and Ethos of the place is so deeply entrenched with what Warren and Charlie have put together what they've preached what is in the record written record and videos and everything else and all the culture in the board and all that that I think it's like as close to bulletproof as you can get I don't really see any issue with Burkshire in a post Charlie era I think the issue they've already faced and they will face in the future is just
Questionerand they will face in the future is just size so at some point it'll become a dividend paying entity and or heavy BuyBacks and so on uh you were talking about how we only have so many rabbit holes that we can go down in a lifetime and how we should sort of make them count and I guess I'm wondering how do you think about which rapid holes are worth going down before you go down how do you start to sort of decide what Rabbit Hole to go down knowing that some won't pan out and some will but can only choose so many
Warrenyeah I think the way to do it the way I've done it is by being a harsh grader so most companies I look at in 60 seconds or less 10 seconds there's whole you know sections of value line which is outside circle of competence I just take whole bunches and just not interested because like I don't know anything about biotech I don't know anything about Pharma I don't know
Warrenanything about Pharma I don't know anything about a lot of things so we just discard those if something makes it past you know the first minute or first 2 minutes I'll give it five or 10 minutes right and then again the idea is to reject it and move on so if it makes it past the five or 10 minutes then we say okay let's give it an hour see what's there for an hour and so basically it's a gradual process where ideas most of them die most of them die within five minutes then what's left dies within an hour and then what's left dies within a few hours and so once you've done a day or two of work a lot of things have gone through your brain about you know it's still like you know Elton says I'm still standing the idea is still standing you know we can let a lot of uh balls go by and we only need to swing at the fat pitch so if I looked
Questionerto swing at the fat pitch so if I looked at Google or maybe Microsoft 10 years ago and even then felt that it was too rich in valuation which would have been a mistake and I took a pass which is probably exactly what happened it's not the end of the world there's many many more pitches coming at you so it's okay
Questionerappreciate you coming by to kind of build on that question what red flags do you look for once you start digging to know when to stop and then secondly where do you see areas of opportunity today
Questioneryeah I mean I think the the red flag BS can come from anywhere like you you have a a thesis in your head about why this thing looks exciting and the moment you run into data that is telling you your thesis is completely wrong then you're done you know that happens all the time so for example if publicly traded car dealerships you know which is a rabbit hole I'm currently in
Questionerwhich is a rabbit hole I'm currently in we don't know what the end results going we don't know what the end results going we don't know what the end results going to be but basically there's a view the market has that in the end the world is market has that in the end the world is market has that in the end the world is going to be all EVs and EVS don't need going to be all EVs and EVS don't need going to be all EVs and EVS don't need much service much parts and service and much service much parts and service and much service much parts and service and these auto dealerships these you know these auto dealerships these you know these auto dealerships these you know new auto dealerships have something like new auto dealerships have something like new auto dealerships have something like 40% of their profits coming from parts 40% of their profits coming from parts 40% of their profits coming from parts and service and that could go away and and service and that could go away and and service and that could go away and the second threat in that space is that the second threat in that space is that the second threat in that space is that EVS could be sold direct so then what EVS could be sold direct so then what EVS could be sold direct so then what they're making with new cars also goes they're making with new cars also goes they're making with new cars also goes away and so if that Viewpoint is away and so if that Viewpoint is away and so if that Viewpoint is accurate new cars not being sold by the accurate new cars not being sold by the accurate new cars not being sold by the dealersh ship is okay because they only dealersh ship is okay because they only dealersh ship is okay because they only make like you know four five% of their make like you know four five% of their make like you know four five% of their profits from new cars new cars are so profits from new cars new cars are so profits from new cars new cars are so commoditized and the comparison shopping commoditized and the comparison shopping commoditized and the comparison shopping is so easy that the the margins are very is so easy that the the margins are very is so easy that the the margins are very low for all of them they don't try to low for all of them they don't try to low for all of them they don't try to make money there they know they have to
Questionermake money there they know they have to basically just be a service provider there without much margin so my view on that is that for an oem to go direct past the dealer the OEM really doesn't gain much Advantage because they have to now service those folks directly and that the very small margin that the dealer makes on the new cars is actually being subsidized by other facets of the business so an oem going direct may have more than 3 4% in cost to you know sell directly and the second is that you know we get to these early adopters and all that a lot of people in the end may still want to you know have a more kind of brick-and motor experience with how they purchase a car Etc and also some of the new V players are finding they better off setting a a dealer Network so I I'm not sure that that particular notion carries that much weight but it
Questionernotion carries that much weight but it doesn't matter that much because the margins are so low then the second piece is that you know EVS don't need parts and service and actually what I found in the Deep dive so far is that EVs do need a lot of parts and service if you take a 20-year life of a car each EV has like four or five battery modules and after kind of 10 years you might need to replace one of more if you take out one module and replace it it's about $7,000 and you're not going to go to Jiffy Lube to do that you know you're going to go to the the dealership and there specialized equipment and there's High margins and all of that and if car gets to be 13 14 years old it might Mak sense to change the entire battery pack the entire battery pack is like 25,000 or something 20 25,000 so when you look at the entire and and even EVS or non
Questionerat the entire and and even EVS or non EVS they all need brakes they all need EVS they all need brakes they all need EVS they all need brakes they all need tires they all have a bunch of other tires they all have a bunch of other tires they all have a bunch of other parts that are still going to be needing parts that are still going to be needing parts that are still going to be needing service and replacement and so on so I service and replacement and so on so I service and replacement and so on so I concluded that actually that's wrong concluded that actually that's wrong concluded that actually that's wrong that I don't think that the the parts that I don't think that the the parts that I don't think that the the parts and service goes away and then there's a and service goes away and then there's a and service goes away and then there's a few other aspects to some of these large few other aspects to some of these large few other aspects to some of these large players the way they're scaling and players the way they're scaling and players the way they're scaling and optimizing their businesses and so on optimizing their businesses and so on optimizing their businesses and so on and so the valuations of these big guys and so the valuations of these big guys and so the valuations of these big guys is based on those assumptions being true is based on those assumptions being true is based on those assumptions being true which is that there'll be no parts and which is that there'll be no parts and which is that there'll be no parts and service and in the end these businesses service and in the end these businesses service and in the end these businesses will cease to exist because everyone will cease to exist because everyone will cease to exist because everyone will be selling direct so that causes a will be selling direct so that causes a will be selling direct so that causes a differentiation now we'll see whether differentiation now we'll see whether differentiation now we'll see whether the different iation makes it through the different iation makes it through the different iation makes it through the rabbit hole or not but that's an the rabbit hole or not but that's an the rabbit hole or not but that's an example of kind of you know trying to example of kind of you know trying to example of kind of you know trying to look at things in a little different way
Questionerlook at things in a little different way and taking it from there thanks for speaking to his much you 5070 years ago when Warren Buffett and his mentor started investing there was uh not many people looking at data looking analytically at what's inside companies there was a lot of shooting from the hip looking at the brand now there's so much data everyone's looking at data perhaps too much sometimes there's a massive amount of data what's the edge you would say that might be out there that we younger investors should look into to get that kind of Step Up uh or that leg up uh when against everyone else in the market
Warrenyeah well I mean I think if you if we go back in history with the US markets you know after the crash of 29 to 32 and then also the crash of 38 really stock prices did not even come back to the level of 1932 or 34 till the
Otherback to the level of 1932 or 34 till the mid-50s you know like the D was 400 then and 400 and 1954 or something so there was a whole generation raised on the notion that you know stock market is not a place to make money because it did nothing for two decades and of course those are the types of conditions that set up the best conditions to do extremely well and the US markets were an extremely good place to invest in the 50s and the 60s until we got to nifty 50 and all of that and then it became also became a really exceptional place to invest after the 73 74 crash but then more recently I think you know things are kind of you can say overheated and such I don't think it's so much an issue of data and what's available so there's there's always there's always a bare Market somewhere there's always opportunity somewhere so if you broaden your horizons you look at other
Questioneryour horizons you look at other geographies you you might find wide gaps between price and value even though in those markets there is incredible data available and incredible speed with which you can get that data and all of that so Charlie used to always lament to that we can't find anything to buy and blah blah blah you know like things are you know so priced to Perfection or overpriced and so on that is true but you know it's not true for example with car dealers the large publicly Trad car dealers trade at you know mid single digit multiples for example and and of course it depends on whether the differentia view is correct or not or whether they deserve to be at that multiple I don't think it's so much data I think it's more being able to I mean I would say that it's more qualitative of thinking versus quantitative data that
Todd Combsthinking versus quantitative data that is going to give you the edge and and so if you can qualitatively think through different businesses and industries and find some aha moment somewhere which tells you that something is different here like for example another rabbit hole that might be worth going down might be something like Delta Airlines these top four players have a very good lock they've got you know Monopoly oligopoly type situations in the different airports and they've got pricing power and so on so on the other hand you've got unions and you know jet fuel prices and all of that that gives you some headwinds but when you sift through all that should they be worth more and I don't know because I have not been down that rabbit hole yet but it might be a good rabbit hole to go down at some try to get a better sense of what's going on Hi man thanks again for
Questionerwhat's going on Hi man thanks again for your time today uh correct me if I'm wrong but understand you have a pretty significant coal exposure at the moment do you mind talking just through the thesis there and perhaps a differentiation between your thoughts on metalogical versus thermal
QuestionerI mostly duck that question you know because I don't want you guys to miss out on all the fun you know by not having the joy of going down the coal rabbit hole but I will just say this that in the latter half last 6 or seven months or 23 I spent about 11 days in various coales four of the four large us whole like two or 3 days with each of them and went like 200 floors underground you know about 2,000 ft down and it was an orgasmic experience I really enjoyed it in fact I was a little sad when it came to an end but the good news that I'm not done yet so still have some more Minds
Otherdone yet so still have some more Minds to go down and I in some cases it'll be to go down and I in some cases it'll be to go down and I in some cases it'll be better to go in the summer so I've got a better to go in the summer so I've got a better to go in the summer so I've got a few more things to do but besides those few more things to do but besides those few more things to do but besides those 10 12 days in the mines and with the 10 12 days in the mines and with the 10 12 days in the mines and with the management teams and Miners and all of management teams and Miners and all of management teams and Miners and all of that I I would just say the miners are that I I would just say the miners are that I I would just say the miners are the best people on the planet I just had the best people on the planet I just had the best people on the planet I just had the the the most fun time with them the the the most fun time with them the the the most fun time with them besides that I spent about 7 months in besides that I spent about 7 months in besides that I spent about 7 months in that rabbit hole it was a beautiful that rabbit hole it was a beautiful that rabbit hole it was a beautiful seven months and mostly it's come to an seven months and mostly it's come to an seven months and mostly it's come to an end because I've you know learned what end because I've you know learned what end because I've you know learned what there was to be learned I think and such there was to be learned I think and such there was to be learned I think and such so and yeah I mean I would say that the so and yeah I mean I would say that the so and yeah I mean I would say that the rabbit hole you want to focus on between rabbit hole you want to focus on between rabbit hole you want to focus on between the two would be met coal so we don't the two would be met coal so we don't the two would be met coal so we don't really have a practical really have a practical really have a practical alternative to making steel other than alternative to making steel other than alternative to making steel other than through the usage of metallurgical core through the usage of metallurgical core through the usage of metallurgical core so if you want to have a civilization we so if you want to have a civilization we so if you want to have a civilization we will be mining metallurgical coal and in
Otherwill be mining metallurgical coal and in my opinion we'll be mining metallurgicalmy opinion we'll be mining metallurgicalmy opinion we'll be mining metallurgical coal for at least five to seven morecoal for at least five to seven morecoal for at least five to seven more decades there are brand new glastdecades there are brand new glastdecades there are brand new glast furnaces that will be commissioned infurnaces that will be commissioned infurnaces that will be commissioned in different places around the world in thedifferent places around the world in thedifferent places around the world in the 2030s and these blast furnaces which2030s and these blast furnaces which2030s and these blast furnaces which produce Iron and Steel that use met coalproduce Iron and Steel that use met coalproduce Iron and Steel that use met coal have a 50-year life if we you know buildhave a 50-year life if we you know buildhave a 50-year life if we you know build one in 2035 it's not going anywhere tillone in 2035 it's not going anywhere tillone in 2035 it's not going anywhere till 2085 it's going to be cranking at that2085 it's going to be cranking at that2085 it's going to be cranking at that point so beyond that I'll leave all thepoint so beyond that I'll leave all thepoint so beyond that I'll leave all the joys and Pleasures to you thank you Mishjoys and Pleasures to you thank you Mishjoys and Pleasures to you thank you Mish
Questionerpreviously you mentioned um that the keypreviously you mentioned um that the keypreviously you mentioned um that the key component or key character for ancomponent or key character for ancomponent or key character for an investor is continuousinvestor is continuousinvestor is continuous learning can you share with us some oflearning can you share with us some oflearning can you share with us some of your techniques or routine when youyour techniques or routine when youyour techniques or routine when you learn something new
Otherwell I mean I thinkwell I mean I thinkwell I mean I think this is a very random business you knowthis is a very random business you knowthis is a very random business you know we don't really it's very opportunisticwe don't really it's very opportunisticwe don't really it's very opportunistic there's really no game plan you know inthere's really no game plan you know inthere's really no game plan you know in the sense there's no strategy I think
Otherthe sense there's no strategy I think you just kind of you're reading you're looking at different things and you're looking for an aha moment so I'll give you an example of an aha moment which led to the seven months in the coal in the world of coal is someone put a Twitter post and they uh you know put my handle in the post saying hey this David Einhorn bet on Console Energy looks like mish's ipco bet from the early 2000s one of the most orgasmic experiences besides cold that I had was the ipco indust you know and the problem is that these orgasmic experiences don't happen often and so I do have to savor them when they happen and make them last but basically the ipsco investment which I look back very fondly on is that there was this Canadian steel company and I think I had made this investment in 2003 or 2004 there abouts where they made tubular
Ted Weschlerthere abouts where they made tubular steel that went into pipelines and they had given guidance and they said that for the next two years we will produce $15 a share in free cash flow in each of the two years the company had $15 a share in cash on their B balance sheet it had no debt and when you added the next two years of the $15 cash flow you were at $45 and the stock was at $40 and so I said okay I know this is a very cyclical business I know that after year two that cash flow could go to zero it could even go negative but I said you know why fill your head with morbid thoughts I'm going to like take a take a 10% position in this company and I just want to see how Mr market prices this company 24 months from now when there's $45 of cash from the balance sheet I just want to see what it does with the stock price you know so that's all the analysis that I
Questionerknow so that's all the analysis that I did on that company I had no idea what the cash flows would be in the third year and I made that bet okay and then a year after I made that bet the company announced that for one more year we will have $15 a share in cash flow they used to sell their product to people who were you know putting up pipelines and so they would get Advan orders so this was not some estimate on earnings based on some blue sky whatever they actually had actual purchase orders with contracted stuff to be delivered with margins very well known that's why they were telling the market so it was actually set in stone basically and so I said there is a God you know it's awesome and now I'm going to be $60 in cash the stock had kind of started drifting northwards I think it had gotten to 80 or $90 by that point so I only held the
Questioner$90 by that point so I only held the stock for about 12 or 13 months and it was almost a double and I'm thinking you know we don't know what happens in year four and we getting 100% return in a year I think we just sell and move on you know ring the regist and while I was thinking through all of this stuff it had been like 14 15 months since I bought it there was an announcement that some Swedish company was buying this company for $160 a share and so I woke up one morning and the stocks at 152 or something and I'm not uh looking for the Arbitrage about 10 seconds after that it was all sold okay so as you can see I have very fond memories of ipsco and I thought ipco is one and done and I'm never going to see this kind of orgasmic experience ever again and then I read on Twitter last year last May that someone is saying Mr Einhorn with console Energy which I've
QuestionerEinhorn with console Energy which I've never heard of before is ipsco so I said let me look into the rabbit hole called Console Energy it's someone talking about ipsco then let's see so first thing I do is I go to David's 13f and I see that console is his largest position besides the green brick or something that he's himself the founder or something but it's the largest position so I said wow David really loves coal and then I said why does David love coal and why is it like ipsco and it turns out that what console does very similar to ipsco is they forward sell all their production with locked in prices one year in advance not only so in the year 23 the sold all of 24 half of 25 and maybe 40% of 26 so it's not exactly like I scope you know I would like it to be precisely like like give me 24 and 25 and give it to me like below the cash or
Questionerand give it to me like below the cash or whatever so the numbers weren't exactly as good as ipsco but when I started to go down that rabbit hole and console the thermal producer so it's not in the metco business metco is small part of the business but I was just looking at it from a ipco you know mental model point of view which is here's a business that forward sales just like ipsco forward sales they have locked in cash flows coal is a four-lettered word nobody wants to say the four-lettered word much less own it and no endowment will invest in a manager heavy on Co you know you might guess that I have no endowments invested with me such as life okay because I'm not not just invested in Coal my 13 half has nothing else but coal you know which came out actually today so so I said okay this is like a coupon clipping ipco bet I just care about coupon clipping I don't care about
Warrenabout coupon clipping I don't care about anything else but what they were doing that ipsco was not doing is console was doing BuyBacks now when ipsco was sitting at two times earnings or three times earnings if you take out the cash they were sitting at two times earnings basically with the two coming in the next two years what they should have done is bought back every share and and of course management teams have a really hard time with BuyBacks you know you will hit your head against a brick wall trying to convince them over would BuyBacks and I don't like to hit my head against brick wall it's just not very pleasant but I saw that console was already doing BuyBacks and I met them and I became friends with them I said listen the dividend you know it's so lame why don't you go all by Banks and next quarter I see they announced we are
Othernext quarter I see they announced we are all by backs I said oh they love Mishall by backs I said oh they love Mishall by backs I said oh they love Mish it's so nice you know so nice so theit's so nice you know so nice so theit's so nice you know so nice so the ipsco bet I mean the the console betipsco bet I mean the the console betipsco bet I mean the the console bet what I started to do with Cole was justwhat I started to do with Cole was justwhat I started to do with Cole was just to replicate what I did with ipco andto replicate what I did with ipco andto replicate what I did with ipco and then when I was digging into coal I ranthen when I was digging into coal I ranthen when I was digging into coal I ran into met Cole and then I started digginginto met Cole and then I started digginginto met Cole and then I started digging into the Met coal players and then thatinto the Met coal players and then thatinto the Met coal players and then that opens up a whole new world and so that'sopens up a whole new world and so that'sopens up a whole new world and so that's I mean I think like I said this is aI mean I think like I said this is aI mean I think like I said this is a business where there's no strategy youbusiness where there's no strategy youbusiness where there's no strategy you just go where your nose takes you andjust go where your nose takes you andjust go where your nose takes you and then you just keep going where whereverthen you just keep going where whereverthen you just keep going where wherever the rabbit hole goes
Questionerhi monish thank youthe rabbit hole goes hi monish thank youthe rabbit hole goes hi monish thank you for being with us um I have a questionfor being with us um I have a questionfor being with us um I have a question because you mentioned our time is verybecause you mentioned our time is verybecause you mentioned our time is very limited uh but we have to balancelimited uh but we have to balancelimited uh but we have to balance between bread and depth so as a juniorbetween bread and depth so as a juniorbetween bread and depth so as a junior investor do you recommend us to look atinvestor do you recommend us to look atinvestor do you recommend us to look at a variety of like businesses or do youa variety of like businesses or do youa variety of like businesses or do you recommend which should really dig direcommend which should really dig di
Questionerrecommend which should really dig di into one Rabbit Hole maybe like forinto one Rabbit Hole maybe like forinto one Rabbit Hole maybe like for month uh do you have uh for suggestionsmonth uh do you have uh for suggestionsmonth uh do you have uh for suggestions for our for us as uh young investorsfor our for us as uh young investorsfor our for us as uh young investors
Questioneryeah that's a great question so I Iyeah that's a great question so I Iyeah that's a great question so I I would recommend you be a inch wide and awould recommend you be a inch wide and awould recommend you be a inch wide and a mile deep and I would also recommendmile deep and I would also recommendmile deep and I would also recommend that the areas that you start with youthat the areas that you start with youthat the areas that you start with you know if you know nothing day one zeroknow if you know nothing day one zeroknow if you know nothing day one zero circular competence which of course youcircular competence which of course youcircular competence which of course you are not but you know let's let's assumeare not but you know let's let's assumeare not but you know let's let's assume that's the case then you start with thethat's the case then you start with thethat's the case then you start with the products and services that you yourselfproducts and services that you yourselfproducts and services that you yourself use and love so you're in love withuse and love so you're in love withuse and love so you're in love with Apple you can take a look but I canApple you can take a look but I canApple you can take a look but I can already tell you that rabbit hole justalready tell you that rabbit hole justalready tell you that rabbit hole just doesn't have much meat on that bat itdoesn't have much meat on that bat itdoesn't have much meat on that bat it used to but not now so you look at allused to but not now so you look at allused to but not now so you look at all the different parts products andthe different parts products andthe different parts products and services you use you know what banksservices you use you know what banksservices you use you know what banks you're banking at and what clothesyou're banking at and what clothesyou're banking at and what clothes you're buying and food you're eating andyou're buying and food you're eating andyou're buying and food you're eating and all of these Brands they're using
Questionerall of these Brands they're using because for any business to be able to because for any business to be able to because for any business to be able to get even a dollar of revenue from you it get even a dollar of revenue from you it get even a dollar of revenue from you it has to be a spectacular business because has to be a spectacular business because has to be a spectacular business because you're so Discerning and if they were you're so Discerning and if they were you're so Discerning and if they were able to get a dollar from you then they able to get a dollar from you then they able to get a dollar from you then they were able to get a dollar from many were able to get a dollar from many were able to get a dollar from many other people and so I think that's the other people and so I think that's the other people and so I think that's the starting point because if you're using starting point because if you're using starting point because if you're using the product already you already have a the product already you already have a the product already you already have a base level understanding as a base level understanding as a base level understanding as a consumer and then you go from there just consumer and then you go from there just consumer and then you go from there just kind of keep broadening from there and kind of keep broadening from there and kind of keep broadening from there and then beyond that you know like Charlie then beyond that you know like Charlie then beyond that you know like Charlie and waren say read everything in sight and waren say read everything in sight and waren say read everything in sight read things like value investors Club read things like value investors Club read things like value investors Club you know look at the writeups there see you know look at the writeups there see you know look at the writeups there see if there's some writeups that speak to if there's some writeups that speak to if there's some writeups that speak to you see if there some writeups there you see if there some writeups there you see if there some writeups there that look like there's a lot of meat on that look like there's a lot of meat on that look like there's a lot of meat on the bone and a lot of value and then the bone and a lot of value and then the bone and a lot of value and then kind of take it from there there a lot kind of take it from there there a lot
Questionerkind of take it from there there a lot of brain power that goes into putting those writeups together so you know be the Shameless clone monish again thank you so much for your time I have a well it's like a two-part question first off you mentioned that we should you know try and go through very few rabbit holes in our lifetime and that if these rabbit holes pay off you can I mean you could probably become rich and you'll have to become rich once right but to do something like that you probably need to be a little bit concentrated into some of these rabbit holes sort of like in so my first question is how do you protect for that risk you know if the rabbit hole doesn't work out and the second part of the question is when you look at an opportunity and you see that there's a long time frame for it to actually pay off what are those time frames that you
Questioneroff what are those time frames that you work with yeah so you know when a firstwork with yeah so you know when a firstwork with yeah so you know when a first generation Chinese couple decides togeneration Chinese couple decides togeneration Chinese couple decides to open a Chinese restaurant at some Corneropen a Chinese restaurant at some Corneropen a Chinese restaurant at some Corner in Queens or Manhattan they have gonein Queens or Manhattan they have gonein Queens or Manhattan they have gone all in and they have 90 95% maybe 98% %all in and they have 90 95% maybe 98% %all in and they have 90 95% maybe 98% % of everything they have not only do theyof everything they have not only do theyof everything they have not only do they have are they all in all the money theyhave are they all in all the money theyhave are they all in all the money they have they're all in on all the time theyhave they're all in on all the time theyhave they're all in on all the time they have and it's not just the Chinesehave and it's not just the Chinesehave and it's not just the Chinese couple that opens the Chinese restaurantcouple that opens the Chinese restaurantcouple that opens the Chinese restaurant this is the situation with about 10this is the situation with about 10this is the situation with about 10 millionmillionmillion entrepreneurs who are running businessesentrepreneurs who are running businessesentrepreneurs who are running businesses in the US they are all Allin so most ofin the US they are all Allin so most ofin the US they are all Allin so most of them wouldn't understand what athem wouldn't understand what athem wouldn't understand what a diversified portfolio is they've neverdiversified portfolio is they've neverdiversified portfolio is they've never thought about life that way and theythought about life that way and theythought about life that way and they don't seem to have trouble sleeping atdon't seem to have trouble sleeping atdon't seem to have trouble sleeping at night with Allin on the Chinesenight with Allin on the Chinesenight with Allin on the Chinese restaurant in fact they're so tired thatrestaurant in fact they're so tired thatrestaurant in fact they're so tired that after a day work they just probably haveafter a day work they just probably haveafter a day work they just probably have the best sleep of all of us so basicallythe best sleep of all of us so basically
Questionerthe best sleep of all of us so basically when we look at entrepreneurs they'rewhen we look at entrepreneurs they'rewhen we look at entrepreneurs they're not balanced they're unbalanced and whennot balanced they're unbalanced and whennot balanced they're unbalanced and when we have a portfolio that's concentratedwe have a portfolio that's concentratedwe have a portfolio that's concentrated even if we concentrate we're still goingeven if we concentrate we're still goingeven if we concentrate we're still going to have four bets or five bets I meanto have four bets or five bets I meanto have four bets or five bets I mean I'm not asking you to go 100% I've neverI'm not asking you to go 100% I've neverI'm not asking you to go 100% I've never gone 100% in fact I've usually am 10%gone 100% in fact I've usually am 10%gone 100% in fact I've usually am 10% bets you know so I don't even go fivebets you know so I don't even go fivebets you know so I don't even go five bets usually I'm going like 10 bets so Ibets usually I'm going like 10 bets so Ibets usually I'm going like 10 bets so I don't see much issue with thedon't see much issue with thedon't see much issue with the concentration issue at all and I'm sorryconcentration issue at all and I'm sorryconcentration issue at all and I'm sorry I forgot your second question what wasI forgot your second question what wasI forgot your second question what was the second question yeah yeah sorry itthe second question yeah yeah sorry itthe second question yeah yeah sorry it was just about time frames you know howwas just about time frames you know howwas just about time frames you know how how much time frame do you work withhow much time frame do you work withhow much time frame do you work with with paybacks or do you expect or towith paybacks or do you expect or towith paybacks or do you expect or to make sense well the time frame dependsmake sense well the time frame dependsmake sense well the time frame depends on you know whether it's your moneyon you know whether it's your moneyon you know whether it's your money other people's money whether you have another people's money whether you have another people's money whether you have an investor base that is going to let youinvestor base that is going to let youinvestor base that is going to let you play your hand out whether you'replay your hand out whether you'replay your hand out whether you're playing with your own money I think that
Otherplaying with your own money I think that all depends on I mean an ideal situation is that you get to hold things for a very long time you know you you found a great rabbit hole and you don't need to do anything for 10 20 years and it's going to keep the returns may take a few years to show up but then they keep coming for couple of decades two three decades that's what we're hoping to do so all of you have many things to do and many places to go and it was such a pleasure to hang out with you guys and thank you for having me and uh sorry for the salty language some of that I blame on Charlie because of all the salty language he used to use when I used to meet him but I tried to keep it clean so thank you hi M hi Mish this is ROV from your birth list Mumbai I to meet you in person I met you in Omaha in 2019 we have a photo together and uh I actually
Questionerhave a photo together and uh I actually graduated from Columbia last year I had a quick question if you don't mind me squeezing in
Questionerno problem so investing is an apprenticeship business you know one is fortunate if she or he is able to learn and polish their craft under an experienced investor but during this journey how do you think about the right time to sort of start out on your own
Todd Combswell I would say the earlier the better you know I think we want we want long runways uh the other thing about the apprenticeship part is you can be like a via you don't necessarily need to be like Arjun MH aavia is fine you educate your classmates of a loveia verus Arjun but you know the thing is a body of work that these great Giants who've come before us have documented and put forth makes it relatively easy to learn at a distance and yeah so I think if we really serious about the
Otherthink if we really serious about the learning the content is there and the teachers are there and so that should work out just fine sure
Otherabsolutely appreciate it do you mind if I just drop you a quick line on your email ID to connect
Otherno problem MP pabra funds.com
Otherall right thank you very much see you
Other[Music]bye