[0:02]
OtherOkay, if you'll take your seats, we'll get underway. And next up is Cliff. Thank you.
QuestionerBerkshire has an online portal for commercial insurance business. I believe it's cover your business.com. Is there an opportunity in commercial lines to go direct akin to what we've seen GEICO do in personal auto insurance?
WarrenYeah, well, the answer to that is we'll find out. We have actually two online arrangements. I'm not sure whether they're both up yet. One is called, I believe it's called Big. I think we got that domain named B.I.G. And that will be run by the applied underwriters, which is a subsidiary of ours and rights workers' comp. And the other is run by a jeet. And then actually we do do, we do, we do, We do commercial auto, some commercial auto, through GEICO as well. So we will learn soon. I guess my message about inherited wealth is getting delivered here. Kids probably want to put himself up for adoption now. So we will be, we have been a little bit, and we will be experimenting more with various insurance, When you look at what has happened, you know, just take Amazon, you have to, you want to try a lot of things. And it amazed me how fast the inquiries on personal auto migrated from phone to the Internet. And, you know, I would have thought that the younger people would do it, but that people like myself would be very slow to do it. But the adaptation by the American public of Internet response has really been pretty incredible and shows no sign of slowing down. So the answer is we'll try various things and we'll make some mistakes. And my guess is that 10 and 20 and 30 years from now, it'll be a lot different.
OtherStation 8.
QuestionerHi, my name is Matt Claiborne from Columbus, Ohio, and thank you for putting this on for all of us. My question is, you have said before that your role will be divided into parts for your succession, one of which is the responsibility of maintaining culture by having Howard as non-executive chairman. What is the plan for how Berkshire will maintain his culture when Howard no longer fills the role, and what should shareholders watch for to make sure that the culture is being properly maintained decades from now when I am your age.
WarrenYeah. Well, that's a question we've obviously given a lot of thought too. And although I hope that Howard has made Chairman just for the reason that if a mistake is made in selecting a successor, it's easier to correct it if you have a non-executive chairman.
[3:45]
WarrenBut that's a very, very, very, I mean, that's a one in a hundred or one maybe in 500 probability, but there's no since ignoring it totally. It's not a key factor. The main, by far, the main factor in keeping Berkshire's culture is that you have a board and you'll have successor board members, you have managers and you'll have successor managers, and you have shareholders that clearly recognize the special nature of the culture, that have embraced the culture. When they sold their businesses to us, they wanted to join that culture. It's a, it thrusts out people that really aren't in tune with it, and there are very few of them, and it embraces those who enjoy and appreciate it. And I think to some extent, we don't have a lot of competition on it. So it becomes very identifiable. And it works. So I think the chances of us going off the rails in terms of culture are really very, very, very slight, regardless of whether there's a non-executive chairman or not, but that's just a small added prediction. So it's, I think that the main problem that Berkshire will have will be size. And I've always, I thought that when I was managing money, when I started managing money. Size is the enemy of performance to a significant degree. But I do think that the culture of Berkshire adds significantly to the value of the individual components viewed individually. And I don't see any evidence that there'd be any board member, any managers or anything that could in any way really move away from what we have now for many, many decades. Charlie?
CharlieI'm even more optimistic than you are. I've never noticed it. I really think the culture is going to surprise everybody by how well it lasts and how well they do. They're going to wonder why they ever made any fuzzle over us in the first place. It's going to work very well. We've got so many good ingredients in place just in terms of the businesses and the people already here, you know, at the companies.
WarrenThat's what I'm saying. That's what I'm saying. much power in place. Another thing is interesting is how little turnover we get in it, too. So the number of managers that have been needed, we've had to replace in the last 10 years are very few. They, you know, without a retirement age, and I tend to bring that up at every meaning to reinforce the idea. But without a retirement age and with people working because they love their jobs, and they love
[7:02]
Warrenlike the money as well, but their primary motive is that they really like accomplishing what they do in their jobs. And that means that we get long tenure out of our managers. So the turnover is low. The directors are not here for the money. And so we have great tenure among the directors, and I would argue that's a huge plus. It's going to go on a very long time.
Andrew Ross SorkinThank you, Warren. The following question comes from our carrots, Galdos, and several other shareholders asked similar questions that are part of this as well. It's a bit of a multi-part question. Uh-uh. About two dozen men and women work with you, Warren, at our corporate office. I see from last year the quality of the picture has been improved in the annual report, so congratulations on that. However, looking at it, there is something that comes to anyone's attention and is the lack of diversity among the staff. A 2015 analysis by Calvert investments found that Coca-Cola was one of the best companies for workplace diversity, while Berkshire Hathaway was one of the worst. You've explicitly stated that you do not consider diversity when hiring for leadership roles and board members. Does that need to change? Are we missing any investment opportunities as a result? And do you consider diversity, however defined, a company leadership and staff when analyzing the value of a company that you may want to purchase?
WarrenWell, there's a multiple part question. The answer to the last one is no. What was the one before it?
Andrew Ross SorkinYou've explicitly stated you do not consider diversity when hiring for leadership roles in board members. Does that need to change? And are we missing any investment opportunities as a result?
WarrenWe will select board members. And we lay it out. And we've done so for years. And I think we've been much more explicit than most companies. We are looking for people who are business savvy, shareholder-oriented, and have a special interest in Berkshire. And we found people like that. And as a result, I think we've got the best board that we could have. They're clearly not in it for the money. I get called by consulting firms. selling firms who've been told to get candidates for directors for other companies. And by the questions they ask, it's clear they've got something other questions we ask in terms of directors in mind. They really want somebody whose name will reflect credit on the institution, which means a big name.
[10:04]
Warrenwhich means a big name. You know, and one organization recently, the one that did the blood samples with small pricks, got, they got some very big names on their board. And Theranos, I think, is that the way you pronounce it, Charlie? Theranos. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, the names are great, but we're not interested in people that want to be on the board because they want to make a two or three hundred hundred thousand dollars a year, you know, for ten percent of their time. And we're not interested in the ones who, for whom it's a prestige item, and who want to go and check boxes or that sort of thing. So I think we've got, we will continue to apply that test, business savvy, shareholder oriented and with a strong personal interest in Berkshire. And every share of the Berkshire that our shareholders own, they bought just like everybody else in this room. They haven't gotten them on option or they haven't gotten, you know, I've been on boards where they've given me stock. You know, they, I get it for breathing, basically, half a dozen places that are maybe three or four that I was on the board of. We want our shareholders to walk in the shoes, I mean, our directors to walk in the shoes of shareholders. We want to care a lot about the business and we want to be smart enough. so that they know enough about business, that they know what they should get involved in or what they shouldn't get involved in. The people in the office, I'm hoping that when we take the Christmas picture again this year, they're exactly the same 25 that were there last year, even though we might have added 30,000 employees elsewhere, and maybe 10 billion of sales or something like that. It's a remarkable group of people. They, I mean, just take this meeting, virtually every one of the 25, our CFO, my assistant, whatever, they've been doing job after job connected with making this meeting a success and a pleasant outing for our shareholders. It's a cooperative effort. The idea that you would have some department called annual meeting department, and, you know, you'd have a person in charge of it, and she'd he would have an assistant and then they would go to various conferences about holding annual meetings and build up you know and then they hire consultants to come in and help them on the meeting we just don't operate that way and it's a it's a it's a place where everybody helps each other but um part of the what makes part of what makes my job is extraordinarily easy but the people around me really make it easy and part of the reason it's easy is because we don't have we don't have any committees maybe we have some committee i don't know about but i've i've never been invited to any committee
[13:10]
WarrenI'll put it that way at Berkshire. And we don't, we may have a PowerPoint someplace, I haven't seen it and I wouldn't know how to use it anyway. The, we just don't do, we don't have make work activities and, and we might go to a baseball game together or something like that. But it, I've seen the other kind of operation and I like ours better. I'll put it that way, Charlie.
QuestionerWell, years ago, I did some work for the Roman Catholic Archbishop of Los Angeles. And my senior partner pompously said, you know, you don't need to hire us to do this. There's plenty of good Catholic tax lawyers. And the Archbishop looked at him like he was an idiot and said, Mr. Peeler, he says, last year I had some very serious surgery, and I did not look around for the leading Catholic surgeon. That's the way I feel about board members.
OtherOkay, Greg. Warren.
QuestionerAnd while Berkshire is authorized the share repurchase program originally aimed at buying back shares at price is no higher than 10% premium to the firm's most recent book value per share. Figure that was subsequently increased to repurchase shares at prices no higher than 20% premium to book value, there has been relatively little share re-purchase activity during the last four and a half years. Even as the shares dip down below the 1.2 times book value threshold during both January, in February of this year if you base it on a buyback price calculated on Berkshire's book value per share at the end of 2015, a number that had not yet been published when the stock did dip that low. Given your belief that Berkshire's intrinsic value continues to exceed its book value, with the difference continuing to widen over time, are we at a point where it makes sense to consider buying back stock at a higher break point than Berkshire currently has in place? And would you ever consider stepping in in buying back shares if they did dip down below 1.2 times book value per share, even if that prior year's figure had not yet been released.
WarrenYeah, Greg, you mentioned that it sold below 1.2, and I don't think that's correct. I keep a pretty close eye on that. And it's come fairly close to 1.2, but I could almost guarantee you that it has not hit 1.2, or we would have done it. And I'd be happy to send you figures on any day that you might feel that it did hit the 1.2. Clearly, in my view, Charlie's view, the board's, the stock is worse significantly more than 1.2, but it should be worse significantly more, or we wouldn't have it at that level. On the other hand, we did move it up from 1.1 to 1.2 because we had acquired more businesses over time that were the different
[16:27]
Warrenbetween our caring value and the intrinsic value really had widened from when we set the 1.1. I have mixed emotions on the whole thing, in that from strictly a financial standpoint and from the standpoint of the continuing shareholders, I love the idea of buying it at 1.2, which means I probably would love the idea of buying it a little higher than 1.2. On the other hand, I don't take, and it's the surest way of making money per share there is. I mean, if you can buy dollar bills for anything less than a dollar, you know, there's no more certain way of making money. On the other hand, I don't particularly like, enjoy the actual act of buying out people who are my partners at a price that is below, well below what I think the stock is worse. So, but we will buy stock. almost certainly. We don't make it a 100% pledge because there'd be a lot of ramifications to that. But the odds are extremely high that we would buy a lot of stock at 1.2 times or less, but we would do it in a manner where we were not propping the stock at any given level. And if it happens, it will be very good for the stockholders to continue. It is kind of an interesting situation, though, because if it's true that we will, and are eager, even, from a financial standpoint to buy it at that price, it's really like having a savings account where if you take your money out as a dividend, or as an interest payment on a savings account, you know, you'll get a dollar, but if you leave it in, you're almost guaranteed that we'll pay you $1.20. I mean, why would anybody want to take money out of a savings account if they could cash it in what they left at 120%. So it acts as a backstop for ensuring that a no-dividend policy results in greater returns than it would be if we paid out a dollar and people got a dollar. If they leave a dollar in, they're going to get at least $1.20, in my view. It's not a total guarantee, but it's a pretty strong probability. So would we increase that number perhaps if we run out of ideas, and I don't mean, you know, day by day, but if it really becomes apparent that we can't use capital effectively within the company in the quantities with which it's being generated, then at some point the threshold might be moved up a little because it could still be attractive to buy it. And you don't, you know, you don't want, you don't want to keep accumulating so much money that it burns a hole in your pocket.
[19:33]
WarrenAnd it's been said actually that, you know, the full wall, it's a little like a full bladder that you may get it erged very quickly to pee it away. And we don't want that to happen. But so far that hasn't happened. And we will, we will, we will, if it ever gets to where we have a. $100 billion or $120 billion or something like that around, we might have to increase the price. Anytime you can buy stock in for less than it's worth, it's advantageous to the continuing shareholders. And, but it should be by a demonstrable margin. You can't, intrinsic value can't be that finely calculated that you can figure it out to four decimal places or anything of the sort.
WarrenCharlie?
CharlieWell, you'll notice that elsewhere in corporate America, these buyback plans get a life of their own. And it's gotten quite common to buyback stock at very high prices that really don't do the shareholders any good at all. I don't know why people are exactly doing it. I think it gets to be fashionable.
WarrenIt's fashionable, and they get sold on it by advisors.
CharlieThat's true, too. Yeah, can you imagine somebody going out and saying, we're going to buy a business and we don't care what the price is. You know, we're going to spend $5 billion a year. buying a business. We don't care where the prices. But that's what companies do when they don't attach some kind of a metric to what they're doing on their buybacks. To say we're going to buy back $5 billion of stock, maybe they don't want to publicize the metric, but certainly they should say we're going to buy back five billion of stock. It's advantageous to buy it back. But they don't, they, you know, if they say we're going to buy the X, Y, Z company, they say, we'll buy it at this price, but we won't buy it at 120% of that price. But I have very very rare. fairly seen, Jamie Diamond is very explicit about saying he's going to buy back the stock when he's buying it below what he considers intrinsic value to me. But I have seen hundreds of buyback notices and I've sat in boards of directors one after another where they voted buybacks and basically, and they said they were doing it to prevent dilution or something like that. It's got nothing to do with preventing dilution. I mean, if you're dilution by itself is a negative and buying back. your stock at too high a price is another negative. So it has to be related to valuation. And as I say, you will not find a lot of press releases that about buybacks that say a word about valuation.
[22:13]
WarrenWe are always behaving a lot like, but some way, called the Episcopal Prayer. We prayerfully thank Lord that we're not like these other religions who are inferior. And I'm afraid there's probably too much. of that in Berkshire, but we can't help it.
OtherOkay, Station 9.
QuestionerGood afternoon, Mr. Buffett. Hi. My name is Sean Montgomery from Fort Worth, Texas. The Nebraska Furniture Marts been open for about a year in Dallas. Right. I was just curious how sales have been, how they compare to your other stores, and what you think they'll be in the future. Thank you.
WarrenYeah. It's, it's a largest store in volume, but we had a problem there that we had in Kansas City, and we'll probably have every time we open a store in that we generate so much initial volume that we had a delivery problem. Like I say, it was worse than Kansas City when that was the first one we opened. So we really had to take our foot off the gas pedal because the last thing in the world we want to do, you know, is make first impressions with delivery problems, accompanied by delivery problems. So it's our largest store in volume. The deliveries have gotten far better. They actually are meeting our company standards that we have have in Omaha. But that wasn't the case for some months. And it's hard to go open on. We opened up the largest home furnishing store in the United States, and we did it in an area where we naturally thought we trained the the drivers as well as we could and everything, but delivery with 100 plus units out there in a new operation, you know, taking in carpet and people getting lost and routing being bad and all kinds. There was plenty of work to be done, and it's been done. So I expect that store, which already is the largest store we have, but I think it will be a billion dollar. annual store before very long. We're getting ready to step on the gas. It's a terrific, terrific area. We have 20 plus auto dealerships there. They, the location in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. We probably have three or four of them in the, in the area where our furniture mart is. They can't build fast enough down there. Toyota's moving there. the Lexus, it's, it's going, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's something even far beyond that. The, the, we've opened up about, I think there about four, uh, food places so far, we got four or five more in the works, and they're doing a terrific volume. I'm starting to sound like Donald Trump here, you know, you know, tremendous terrific, you know, yeah, you know, fantastic, you know, you know, you know, I've never
[25:30]
Othernever seen anything like it. But the, uh, just wait a little next year. I'll come back. I'll really have, I'll really be in shape that. It's doing well. We couldn't have picked a better area. We have 400 and, over 400 acres that we were very fortunate in corralling a whole bunch of land. And we're bringing prices and variety like they, nobody's seen. And now we just got to bring in delivery like nobody's ever seen.
Carol LoomisOkay, Carol. This question comes from Chris Gottsho of New York. Mr. Buffett, you have expressed concern about cyber, biological, nuclear, and chemical attacks, but preventing catastrophe is not getting enough attention. For example, a bill passed the House unanimously to harden the electric grid against the high altitude nuclear explosion. Not too many bills passed the House. many bills passed unanimously these days, but then the bill got bottled up in the Senate. Have you considered funding, wouldn't it be a good idea for you to consider funding, a lobbying and educational campaign to promote the public good in this area and counteract industry lobbyists who are often more interested in short-term profits?
WarrenYeah, well, in my view, there is no problem remotely like the public. the problem of what I call CNVC, cyber nuclear chemical and biological attacks, that either by rogue organizations, even possibly individuals, rogue states, I mean, you know, you think about, you can think about a lot of things, and it will happen. I think we've been both lucky and frankly, frankly, that people have done a very good job in government, because government is the real protection on this, in not having anything since 1945. We came very, very close during the Cuban missile crisis, and I don't know what the odds were, but I do think that if there had been, I can think of many people that they've been in place of either Kennedy or Crucef, we would have had a very different result. And it's the ultimate. problem. As I put in the annual report, it's the only real threat to Berkshire's economic external threat to Berkshire's economic well-being over time. And I just hope when it'll happen, I hope when it happens that it's minimized, but the desire of psychotics and megalomaniacs and religious fanatics and whatever to do harm on others is a lot more when you have 7 billion people on Earth than when you had 3 billion or so, which is the case when I was born, less than 3 billion.
[28:46]
WarrenAnd unfortunately, there are means of doing it. You know, if you were a psychotic back far enough, you threw a stone of the guy in the next cave, and they were sort of a relationship of damage to psychosis. But the, and that went along, you know, through bows and arrows and spears and cannons and various things. And in 1945, we unleashed something like the world had never seen. And that is a pop gun compared to what can be done now. So there are plenty of people that would like to cause us huge damage. And I came to that view when I was in my 20s and in terms of my fellow tropic efforts, I decided that that was one of two issues that I thought should be the main issue. And I got involved with all kinds of things like the concern union. You supported the Pugwash conference year after year, and you're frankly all by yourself. Yeah, a union to concern scientists. And I've given some money to the nuclear threat initiative that is going to create a sort of a federal reserve system, a bank from to uranium that. It will take away some of the excuse for countries to develop their own highly enriched uranium. So, but it's overwhelmingly a governmental problem when you're dealing. And it should be, and I think it actually has been the top priority for president after president. It's not the thing they can go out and talk about every day and they don't want to scare the hell out of everybody. And they also don't want to tip people's hands as to what they're doing. But being an insurance business, you don't have to even be in the insurance business, you can, you know that someday somebody will pull off something on a very, very, very, very big scale that will be harmful. Maybe it'll, the United States is probably the most likely place it happens, but it could happen a lot of other places. And that's the one huge disadvantage to innovation. people. Warren, I think he also asked, why don't we, Berkshire, spend a lot more time telling the government what it should be doing and thinking? Well, I've tried telling all the people. Nobody disagrees with you on it. They just, it seems sort of hopeless to. I mean, they don't know, they don't know what to do beyond what they're doing. And incident, they've done a lot of things. I mean, not all gets publicized, but, and I think, I think Kennedy and crucially, Chef. I mean, you know, Khrushchev shouldn't have been sending it over to Cuba, but at least he had
[31:44]
Charlieenough sense when he knew Kennedy meant business to turn the ships around. But it's, you can't count on there being Kennedys and Kruhefs all the time in charge of things. And the mistakes that are made, I see the mistakes that are made in business or human behavior where people act so contrary to their own. long-range self-interest, that humans are very, you know, they've got a lot of frailities. You can argue that if Hitler hadn't been so anti-Semitic, you know, he could have kept a lot of scientists that might have gotten him to the atomic bomb before we did. But he drove out the best of his scientific minds and fortune. I imagine a guy stupid enough to think the way to improve science kick out all the Jews. No. It was, no, the hero of the 20th century may have been Leo Zillard. I mean, Leo Zillard is the guy that got Einstein to co-sign a letter to Roosevelt and say, you know, one side or the other is going to get this and we better get it first, basically. He said it much more elegantly than that. You can go to the internet and look up the letter, but, you know, we've both been good good and we've been lucky. But if you remember post 9-11, people started getting a few envelopes with anthrax, and they went to like the National Enquirer, and Tom Brokaw and Tom Dashel, I can't remember. I mean, who knows what mind, when you've got a mind that's going to send anthrax to people, you know, how that decision-making is made is just totally beyond comprehension. And that person did not end up doing a lot of damage, but the capability for damage is absolutely incredible. I don't know how Berkshire does anything about it. I don't know how to do it, Phenontropics. If I knew how to do, reduce the probabilities of the CNBC type mass attack, if I knew how to reduce the probability by 5%, all my money would go to that. No question about that, maybe 1%. But hasn't it been true? We haven't been very good. the government to follow any of our advice?
QuestionerYeah, but this one's important.
CharlieYeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Nobody argues with you about it. They just sort of throw up their hands. And some people work for a while on it and just get discouraged and quit. I was involved, I forget the exact name of it, but their idea was a bunch of nuclear scientists. This was a long ago, but their idea was to affect elections in small states, the theory being, government was the main instrument and you would have the maximum impact.
[34:42]
WarrenAnd just one after another, you know, people took it up and got discouraged. I don't think it's because we've had the wrong leaders. I think our leaders have been good on this. I think, and I think that any candidate, well, I do not worry about the fact that either Clinton or Trump would regard that as the paramount problem of their presidency. But I just don't know. The offense can be ahead of the defense, and that's, you can win the game 99.99% of the time, but eventually anything that has any probability of happening, you know, will happen. I wish I could give you a better answer. Charlie, have you got any?
CharlieI have no hope of giving a better answer.
WarrenThat's what they all say to me. Yeah. Jonathan.
QuestionerThe Lubrizol lubricant additives business is one of your six largest non-insurance units, but there's been relatively little disclosure about its performance since it was acquired nearly five years ago. Can you please update us on how the core business has done and how the competitive landscape and in markets have evolved since it was acquired? I know the core business is not a growth business, but has the increase in miles driven help their top line at all. Could you also talk about the performance of one or two of their more important bolt-on acquisitions, whether it be chemtool, the pipeline flow-improver company, Warwick, Weatherfield, or Lipotech?
WarrenYeah. The additive business, there's four companies in it, basically, and it's a no growth but very good business, and we're the leader. So it is performed. performed almost exactly as you would anticipate since purchase. And other specialty companies, some of which have might have growth possibly, but they're small. So a little result overall on an operational basis has been very much as we anticipated or you would have anticipated if you looked at the prospectus of the time we bought it. They made one large acquisition, which is was a big mistake, and that was in the oil field, especially chemical area, and was made just about the time that, or even a little after, that oil took a nose dive. So we've had some decent acquisitions there, but the biggest acquisition should not have been made. We still got the fundamental earning power of the additive business and everything. That is not disappointed us in any way. It's a very well-in operation that way, but it's not a growth operation. Charlie?
CharlieNothing to add.
WarrenOkay.
[37:54]
QuestionerStation 10. Hello. Hello, Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger. Thank you so much for your insights, teaching, and being great remodels. My name is Eric Soberger, a violinist based in New York City. A question for both of you is related to psychological biases. Through Berkshire Hathaway's operations, you get a very good read on macroeconomic factors, yet Berkshire does not make investment decision based upon macroeconomic factors. How do you control the effect of information such as knowing macroeconomic factors or the anchoring effect of knowing stock prices because of the after a while, it's hard not to, once you've analyzed them before. And how does that influence your rational decision making, whether you should ignore it or whether you should try to use it in a positive way?
WarrenWell, Charlie and I are certainly, we read a lot, so we, and we're interested in economic matters, and political matters for that matter, and so we know a lot, or we're familiar a lot, I should say, with almost all the math. macroeconomic factors. That doesn't mean we know where they're going to lead. We don't know where zero interest rates are going to lead. But we do know what's going on if we don't know what what is likely to...
CharlieWarren, there's a confusion here. It says microeconomic factors.
WarrenOh, micro-economic factors. We pay a lot of attention to those. Oh, yeah. If you talk about macro, we don't know anyone or anybody else.
CharlieYeah. He summed it up. The, in terms of the businesses we buy, and when we buy stocks, we look at at it as buying businesses, so they're very similar decisions. We try to know all, as many as we can know, of the microeconomic factors. We, I like looking at the details of a business whether we buy it or not. I mean, I just find it interesting to study the species, and that's the way you do study it. So I don't think there's any any lack of interest in those factors or denying the importance of them. So am I getting at this question or not, Charlie?
CharlieWell, there hardly could be anything more important than the microeconomics. That is business. Business and microeconomics are sort of the same term. I guess... Microeconomics is what we do and macroeconomics is what we do and macroeconomics is what we put up with.
QuestionerThe anchoring effect, I mean, how do you deal with that as well?
WarrenWell, we're not anchored to a vote we're ignoring. Ah, I see. But Charlie and I are the kind that literally find it interesting in every business.
[40:58]
WarrenWe like to look at micro factors. When we buy a seize candy in 1972, you know, there may have been 140 shops or something. We'll look at the, we'll look at numbers on each one, and we'll watch them over time, and we'll see how third year shops behave in the second year. and we really like understanding businesses. It's just, it's interesting to us. And some of the information is very useful, and some of it may look like it's not helpful, but who knows when some little facts stored in the back of your mind pops up and really does make it different. So we're fortunate in that we're doing what we love doing it. I mean, we love doing this like other people, like watching baseball games, which I like to do too. But they, just the very act, every pitch is interesting. And every moment, you know, whether a guy's a double seal is interesting or whatever it may be. And so that's what our activity is in, has been voted to. And we talk about that sort of thing. We try and avoid the worst angering effect, which is always your previous conclusion. We really try and destroy our previous ideas. Charlie says that if you disagree with somebody, you ought to be able to state their case better than they can. Absolutely. And at that point, you've earned the right to disagree with them. Otherwise, you should keep quiet. It would do wonders for our politics if everybody followed my system.
Becky QuickOkay, Becky. Oh, Warren, just a quick request. Would you please stop using CNBC as an acronym for mass destruction? But if I use NBCC, then, I've got a problem with Steve.
QuestionerThis question comes from Matt Bandy in Dallas Tech. in Dallas, Texas. He's asking about Saradage growth properties. He says, in December 2015, you filed a personal 13G, evidencing a roughly 8% ownership position in the Real Estate Investment Trust, Saratage Growth Properties, which, to my knowledge, is not paralleled as a Berkshire investment. Alternatively, in September 2015, Warren filed a personal 13G, evidencing ownership in Phillips 66, which is paralleled as a Berkshire investment. My question is, is, how do you decide when making a personal investment for your own account versus an investment for Berkshire? I understand market cap and ownership sizing are the likely factors, but does it still not behoove him to invest for the shareholders benefit in a company like Saradage that might have significant upside? And where are you putting your personal money to work?
[43:46]
WarrenRight. I do not own a share or never have owned a share of Phillips 66. I'm not sure where that person, what he's referring to. And maybe that there's some way when the form is filled out, that because I'm CEO of Berkshire, that on some line it imputes ownership to me or something, but the answer is I've never owned a share of Phillips. And Saratage is a real estate investment trust that had a total market value of under $2 billion dollars when I bought it. And my situation is that I have about 1% of my net worth outside of Berkshire and 99% in it, and I can't be doing things that Berkshire does. So a surreage with a $2 billion market cap is not really something that is a Berkshire size. Plus, we've never owned a real estate investment trust to my knowledge or my memory in Berkshire at all. I mean, it's just not a... So I could buy that. and not have any worry about a conflict with Berkshire. It is a practical matter, you know, my best ideas are, I hope they're my best ideas, are off limits for me because they go to Berkshire if they're sizable enough to have a significance to Berkshire. We will not be making investments unless it's something very odd. We will not be making investments in companies with the total market. cap of a couple billion while we're our president's size. But, uh, so every now and then I see something that's subsized for Berkshire that I'll put my, that one percent of my net worth in and, uh, the rest of the stuff is off limits. Basically, unless Berkshire's all done buying something or is it, I mean, I own some wells that I bought a long, long time ago and Berkshire was not, was not interested in, I mean, we bought for something at the time, or maybe we didn't have money for investment, but, but I try to stay away from anything that could conflict with Berkshire. And if I'd been buying Phillips, when Berkshire was buying Phillips, or prior or, or subsequently, there could be a case where it would be okay when we might have hit some limit. But the answer is I didn't buy any, and I've never owned any. Charlie?
CharlieWell, part of being in a business. position like that, we occupy. You really don't want conflict of interest or even the appearance of it. And it's been 50 or 60 years. When have we embarrassed Berkshire by some of us? Side Gondik. Both of us have practically nothing of significance. In the total picture outside of Berkshire, I've got some Costco stock.
[46:55]
CharlieThe director of Costco, Berkshire's got some Costco stuff. There are two or three little overlaps like that, but basically Berkshire's Berkshire shareholders have more to worry about some conflict that Warren and I are going to give it. We're not going to do it. It may sound a little crazy, and it's only because I can afford to say this, but I would much rather make money for Berkshire than for myself. I mean, it isn't going to make any difference to me anyway. I've got all the money I could possibly need and way more. And on ballots, my personality, everything is more wound up in how Berkshire does than I am myself, because I'm going to give it all away. So I know my end result is zero, and I don't want Berkshire's end result to be zero. So I'm on Berkshire's side.
QuestionerCliff? One of the great financial characteristics of Berkshire today is it's awesome cash flow. While as simple earnings, less capex formula yields, and annual free cash flow calculation, I figure of around 10 to 12 billion, in reality it seems to be much higher, closer to 20 billion, and I think in part due to changes in the deferred tax asset year to year. What is the outlook for free cash flow and can investors to expect similar dynamics going forward?
WarrenYeah. There's a lot of deferred tax that's attributable to unrealized appreciation and securities. I don't have the figure, but let's just assume that's $60 billion of unrealized appreciation and securities. Well, then there would be $21 billion of deferred tax. That isn't really cash that's available. It's just an absence of cash that's going to be paid out until we sell the securities. Summarizes rises through bonus depreciation. The railroad will have depreciation for tax purposes. It's a fair amount higher than for book purposes. But overall, I think of primarily the cash flow of Berkshire is a practical matter relating to our net income, plus our increase in flow, assuming we have an increase. And over there's a practical matter, the years, Florida has added $80 billion plus to make available for investment beyond what our earnings have allowed for. And that's the huge element. We're going to spend more than our depreciation in our businesses, primarily, number one, because of the railroad in Berkshire-Hathaway energy, are two entities that will spend quite a bit more than depreciation in all likelihood for a long, long, long time. And the other businesses, unless we get into inflationary conditions,
[49:53]
Warrenit won't be a huge swing one or the other. So our earnings, the 17, not counting investment, not counting capital gains, but our earnings, which were, whatever they were, you know, around 17 billion, plus our change in float is the net new available cash. But of course, we can always sell securities and create. additional cash, we can borrow money and create additional cash. But it's not a very complicated economic equation at Berkshire. People didn't, for a long time, they didn't appreciate the value of float. We kept explaining it to them, and I think they probably do now. The big thing, the goal, what Charlie and I think about, we want to add every year something to the normalized, you know. the normalized earning power per share of the company. And we think we can do it because we should be able to do it. We have retained earnings to work with every year to get that job done. Sometimes it doesn't look like we've accomplished much, and we haven't accomplished much. And other years, something big happens. And we don't know ahead of time which year is going to be which, Charlie?
CharlieWell, there are very few companies that have ever been similarly advantaged in the the whole history of Berksor Hathaway. We've lived in a torrent of money, and we were constantly deploying it and dispersed assets, and we were rising up as we went along. That's a pretty good system. We're not going to change it.
WarrenNo. It's allowed for a lot of mistakes. I mean, that's the interesting thing. American business has been good enough that you don't have to be, you don't have to be smart to get a decent result. And if you can bring a little bit of intellect, you know, you should get a pretty good result. What you've got to do is be aversive to the standard stupidities. If you just keep those out, you don't have to be smart. Thank God. Thank God.
OtherOkay, Section 11. Hey, Warren and Charlie. Thank you so much for your generosity and sharing your life's accumulation of knowledge and financial capital to the progress of humanity. Thank you for that. And Berkshire managers, thank you for building important companies and stewarding our financial futures. Thank you guys. This is Bruce Wang from Microjig, traveling west from Orlando, Florida. Last year, you kindly shared with me the importance of getting the best reputation you can and behaving well. This year, I'd like to ask and preface with Bill Gates wrote,
[52:56]
QuestionerWarren's gift is being able to think ahead of the crowd. It requires more than taking his affirmism to heart to accomplish that, although Warren is full of aphorisms, well worth taking to heart. And he also added that I've never met anyone who thought in business in such a clear way. Warren, what elusive, yet obvious to you, truth, has allowed you to think ahead of the crowd and build a clear mental framework to produce a historically significant institution, powerhouse brand. And Charlie, same to you, what obvious truth presents itself so clearly to you, but many would fervently disagree with you upon.
WarrenI think I got the question. And I, you know, I owe a great deal to Ben Graham in terms of learning about investing, and I owe a great deal to Charlie in terms of learning a lot about business. And then I've also been around, I mean, I spent a lifetime, you know, looking at businesses and why some work and why some don't work. You know, as Yogi Berra said, you can see a lot just by observing. And that's pretty much what Charlie and I have been doing for a long time. And you do, I mentioned pattern recognition earlier. You know, there's you, and I would say it's important to recognize what you can't do. So we have, we may have. We may have tried the department store business and a few things, but we've generally tried to only swing of things in the strike zone at our particular strike zone. And it really hasn't been much more complicated in that. You do not need, you don't need the IQ in the investment business that you needed certain activities in life. But you do have, you do have to have emotional control. I mean, you know, we see very smart people do very stupid things. And it's fascinating how humans do that. Just take the people that get very rich and then leverage themselves up in some way that they lose everything. I mean, that they are risking something that's important to them for something that isn't important to them. Well, you can say you can figure that one out in first grade, but people do it time after time. And you see that constantly self-destructive behavior, one sort or another. another. I think we've probably, and it doesn't take a genius to do it, but I think we've sort of avoided the self-destructive behavior.
CharlieWell, there's just a few simple tricks that work well. And particularly if you've got a temperament that has a combination of patience and
[56:00]
Warrenopportunism in it. And I think that's largely inherited, although I suppose it can be learned to some extent. Then I think there's another thing. factor that accounts for the fact that Berkshire's done as well as has, is that we're really trying to behave well. And I had a great grandfather when he died, the preacher gave the talk, and he said, none envied this man's success so fairly won and wisely used. That's a very simple idea, but it's exactly what Berger's trying to do. There are a lot of people who make a lot of money and everybody hates them. them and they don't admire the way they earn the money. And I'm not particularly admirable of making money running gambling casinos. And, you know, we don't own any. And we've turned down businesses, including a big tobacco business. So I don't think Berkshire would work as well if we were just terribly shrewd, but didn't have a little bit of what the preacher said about my grandfather, Angham. We want to... to have people think of us as having one fairly and used wisely. It works. And we were very, very lucky to be born when we were and where we were. And I mean, we, you could have dropped us at some other place in time or some other part of the world, and things would have turned out. And think of how lucky you were to have your uncle Fred. Warren had an uncle was one of the finest men I ever knew I used to work for him, too. You know? A lot of people have terrible relatives. That's not an unimportant point. Just yesterday, we had a meeting of all my cousins and a whole bunch that we just get together. At the annual meeting time, there are probably 40 of us or 50 of us there. But, and they were pulling out some old pictures. And four, I had four aunts that they all in these pictures. And every one of them, you know, I mean, you were so lucky if you had one like that, and I had four. I mean, they were just were. In every way, they reinforced a lot of things that needed some reinforcement in my case. I wish you'd had a couple more. Yeah. We'd be doing even better. But he mentioned my Uncle Fred, but my Aunt Katie worked in the store, too. My Aunt Alice worked in the store. And they just, you just couldn't have been around better people. I think Charlie would agree with that.
CharlieYeah. Well, we were very lucky.
WarrenYeah. My grandfather was a little tough, however. tough, however. Tell him what my grandfather used to do when he paid you on Saturday.
[59:01]
CharlieWell, that was very interesting. You know, Warren's a Democrat, but he came from different antecedents. I worked for his grandfather, Ernest, and he was earnest. And when they passed Social Security, which he disapproved of because he thought it reduced self-reliance, and he paid me $2 for 10 hours work. It was no minimum wage in those days on Saturday, and it was a hard 10 hours. hours. At the end of the 10 hours, I came in, and he made me give him two pennies, which was my contribution to Social Security. And he gave me two one-dollar bills and a long lecture about the evils of Democrats and the welfare state and a lack of self-reliance. And it went on and on, no, no, no. So I had the right, I had antecedents, too. I had Ernest Buffett telling me what to do. Okay, enough family history. I haven't overstated that, haven't?
WarrenNo, you haven't overstated that?
CharlieNo. No. No. You can't believe the people. And he thought he was doing his duty by the world to do that. But we were lucky that. The people were around when we were young, we were very lucky.
Andrew Ross SorkinAndrew. Warren and Charlie. You're famous for making a deal over a day or two with nothing more than a handshake. You pride yourself on the small overhead of doing the diligence mostly yourself. Other successful acquisitive companies use teams of internal people, outside bankers, consultants and lawyers to do diligence. often over many months to assess deals. Speed may be a competitive advantage. You've done some amazing deals. But does your diligence process also put us at greater risk? And if you're ever gone, how would you recommend Berkshire change how we approach deal-making?
WarrenYeah, I get that question fairly often, often from lawyers. In fact, our own... We talked to Munger Toles, the law firm, and that was one of the questions I got why we didn't do more due diligence, which we would have paid them by the office. we would have paid them by the hour for. It's interesting. We've made plenty of mistakes in acquisitions. Plenty. And we made mistakes in not making acquisition. But the mistakes are always about making an improper assessment of the economic conditions in the future of the industry of the company. They're not a bad lease. lease. They're not a specific labor contract. They're not a questionable patent. They're not the things that are on the checklist, you know, for every acquisition by every major corporation in America. Those are not the things that count. What counts is whether
[1:01:49]
Warrenyou're wrong about whether you've really got to fix on the basic economics and how the industry is likely to develop or whether Amazon's likely to kill them, you know, in a few years, or that sort of thing. And I, we have not found a due diligence list that gets at what we think of the real risks when we buy a business. And like I said, we've made, we certainly made at least, oh, at least a half a dozen mistakes and probably a lot more if you get into mistakes of omission. But none of those would have been cured by a lot more due diligence. They might have been cured by us being a little smarter. It just isn't the things that are on the checklist that really count. Assessing whether a manager, who I'm going to hand a billion dollars to for his business, and he is going to hand me a stock certificate, assessing whether he's going to behave differently in the future and running that business than he has in the past when he owned it, that's incredibly important. But there's no checklist in the world that's going to end. answer that. So if we thought there were items of due diligence, and incidently, there are a few that get covered. I mean, you want to make sure that they don't have twice as many shares out as you're buying or something in the sort. But if we thought there were things that we were missing that were of importance in assessing the future economic prospects of the business, you know, we would by all means drill down on those. But the question of, you know, when we bought Cs, they probably had 150 leases. You know, when we buy precision cash parts, they have 170 plants, you know. There's going to be pollution problems at some place. That is not what determines whether a $32 billion acquisition is going to look good five years from now or 10 years from now. And we try to focus on those things. And I do think it probably facilitates things with at least certain people that our method of operation does cut down. You get into squabbles on small things. I've seen deals fall apart because people start arguing about some unimportant point and their egos get involved, and they draw lines in the sand and all of that. I think we gain a lot. When we We start to make a deal that usually gets done. Charlie?
CharlieWell, we just have to think about it. Business quality usually counts on something more than whether you cross the tea in some old lease or something. And the human quality of the management we're going to stay are very important.
[1:05:01]
WarrenAnd how are you going to check that by due diligence, you know? And I think I don't know anybody who's... anybody who's had a generally better record than Berkshire in judging business quality and the human quality of the people, we're going to lead the business after it's acquired. And I don't think it would have improved at all by using some different method. So I think the answer is that for us at least, we're doing it the way we should. Negotiations that drag out have a tendency, they're more likely to blow up for some reason. I mean, people, they can get... They can get obstinate about very small points, and it's silly to be obstinate, but people get silly sometimes. So I like to keep things moving. I like to show a certain amount of trust in the other person because usually trust comes back to you. But the truth is there's some bad apples out there, and spotting them is not going to come from looking at documents. you really have to size up whether that person who's getting a lot of cash from you is going, how they're going to behave in the future, because we're counting on them. And that that assessment is as important as anything involved. You know, we know all the figures and everything going in, and we know what we'll pay. And so we don't want things to get gumbed up in negotiations. and I'm perfectly willing to lose small points here and then on a deal. If I have the deal on the right terms, I don't believe in making a... And Tom Murphy taught me this. I mean, you know, you just don't try and win every point. It's a terrible mistake. But you make a decent deal, and if you find something that bends a little different some way, that's okay. If you think it's bad faith and gives an indication of the character, of the person you're dealing with, then you've got another problem. And you're lucky if you find that out early.
WarrenCharlie, anymore? How many people in this room who are happily married, carefully checked their spouse's birth certificate, and so on? My guess is that our methods are not so uncommon as they appear.
CharlieI'll think about that.
QuestionerOkay, Greg. Warren, the announcement earlier this month that, this month that Ajit Jane would be taking over responsibility for all of Berkshire's reinsurance efforts once Tad Montrose retires from General Rhee, has raised some questions about not only the change in leadership structure, but succession planning. Given the state of the reinsurance market, it makes sense to have Ajit overseeing both businesses,
[1:08:04]
Questionerespecially if the pricing environment is expected to be difficult for another 10 years. And there are duplicative efforts that can be streamlined. Given this move and the change in responsibilities we've seen at several of Berkshire subsidiaries the last few years. I was just wondering if you could give us some color on how succession planning is handled at the subsidiary level, and any insight you could give us into what led you to finally decide to have Ajit oversee both of Berkshire's reinsurance arms, and whether or not it will change the amount of work he'll be doing on the specialty side of the business would be greatly appreciated.
WarrenYeah. Well, Tad Mantras, after 39 years, have done an absolutely sensational job for Berkshire. You know, originally, Jen Re was a problem child for a while. as you know, and some brought on by itself and some external. But the, and Tad is, I mean, he's sensational. And I tried several times, maybe successfully in terms of months, but not in terms of years to get him to stay out longer. The, as you say, it makes sense to have the reinsurance operation under Ajit's ability to handle more and more things in insurance. He oversees a company called Guard, which most of you have never heard of, and we bought it a few years ago. And it's doing terrifically. It's based in Wilkesbury, Pennsylvania, but it's doing a great job with small business policies, primarily workers come, around the country. And it's flourished, you know, being put under Ajit. He started the specialty operation a couple of years ago. And under Peter, that's, I mean, that is going gangbusters. And I have found, and this is interesting, but it's true. I have found with really able people, they can handle so much. I mean, they almost, well, just take Kerry, so with it, put this meeting together. You know, if you have some preconceived notion that an annual meeting that's going to have 40,000 people therefore needs, you know, to spend. and millions of dollars with all kinds of organizational planning and meetings and meetings and meetings and meetings at it. But really able people, you know, my assistant, Debbie Bush, not like she can do anything, you know. So it, there's just no limit to what talented people can accomplish. And if I hadn't something else an insurance tomorrow that needed doing, I'd probably call a jeet on that, too. So it has no, you know, in terms of my succession, that's something, we'll have a board meeting on Monday, but we'll have a board meeting on Monday, but we'll talk about it as we always do at every meeting.
[1:11:03]
WarrenAnd, you know, when we haven't, our thoughts are as one on that, and everybody knows why it's, makes the most, sense. But five years from now, something different could make sense. Well, we, that's one reason for not announcing any names. I mean, who knows what happens in terms of the time when it happens or what happens to the person involved. Maybe that maybe their situation changes. So it's not a, there are no tea leaves to read in the fact that Ajita's supervising generally from this point forward.
CharlieCharlie? Well, there's an obverse side of that. Not only can the able people usually do a lot more, but the unable people, by and large, you can't fix. So I think you're forced to use our system if you have your wits about you. And we don't feel the need to follow any kind of organizational common view as to, you know, you do this and you have only so many so many many people can report to you or any sort of thing. Berkshire, every decision that comes up, you know, we just try and figure out the most logical thing to do at that time, but we don't have some grand design in mind of, you know, like an Army organizational charter or something to the sort, and we never will. Warren and I once reached the decision, we wouldn't pay more of the next dollars for something. And the man who was subordinate to both of us who was working on and just said, you guys are out of your minds. It's just really stupid. This is a quality operation you ought to pay up for it. We just looked at one another and did it his way.
WarrenYeah. Yeah. We don't pay any attention to titles. He was right, too. He was right, yeah, of course. Okay. I'm sorry. But charwoman gave us a good idea we'd accept it cheerfully. Actually, one time the woman that does clean my office came in, and I think she'd been kind of wondering what I did, you know, based on. you know, based on, and I'd see her frequently, and the name was Ruby. And finally one day, she decided to really get to the heart of the matter. And she said, Mr. Buffett, do you ever get any good horses? Apparently thought this where I was really making my money was at the trap. Okay, Station 1. Hello, Mr. Buffett. Hi. Mr. Munger, Nirov Patel, Haveral, Massachusetts. Thank you for taking my question. my question. With Berkshire Hathaway being so well managed, why doesn't it have a highest credit bond rating?
QuestionerI may take that one.
WarrenOkay. The rating agencies are wrong.
[1:14:11]
OtherAnd said in their ways. And we don't fit their model very well. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, we don't look like anything exactly they see otherwise. But that's the answer. Yeah. And we, I'll say this, though. What I do, when they, when they, when they, they come in the door, I always say, let's talk quadruble A. I believe in starting to negotiate from that standpoint. I never get any place.
Carol LoomisOkay, Carol. Questions continue to come in about the financing and working relationship that Berkshire formed with 3G a couple of years ago, and this is one of those questions. While 3G has been very successful in cutting costs and increasing margins at Kraft Hines, the company has seen volumes and revenues decline. As a long-term investor, how do you judge when a management is cutting muscle as well as fat? Can a business increase revenues while cutting costs? And I forgot to say this came from Rick Smith at New York City.
WarrenWell, the answer is yes. That sometimes it's, you can cut costs that are a mistake to cut, and you can, and sometimes you can keep costs that are a mistake to keep. Tom Murphy had the best approach. I mean, he never hired a person that he didn't need, and therefore, they never had layoffs. And you might say that at headquarters at Berkshire, we followed a similar approach. You would never, we just don't, we don't take on anybody. Now, I think it is totally crazy when companies are in, now if you're in a, a cyclical business, you may have to cut a workforce because there aren't as many carloads of freight moving or something like that, so you cut back on crane crews and all that. But the idea that you give up your staff, whatever, it may be, economists or something like that, because businesses slowed down, if you didn't need them in the, if you don't need them now, you didn't need them in the first place, you know. I mean, the people that are there are just because somebody started a department and they hired more people and so on. I would argue that, since we've forgotten to insult this group so far, I would suggest that happens in investor relations departments, perhaps, or something of sort, that, you know, you get people, you get a department going and they're always going to want to expand. The ideal method is not to do it in the first place, but there are all kinds of American companies that are loaded with people that aren't really doing anything or are doing the wrong thing.
[1:17:11]
WarrenAnd if you cut that out, it should not really have any significant effect on volume. And then if you cut out the wrong things, you could have a big effect. I mean, it can be done in a dumb way or a smart way. My impression from everything I've seen, and I've seen a fair amount so far, is that 3G, in terms of the cost cuts that they've made, have been extremely intelligent about it and have not done things that will cut volume. It is true that in the packaged goods industry, volume trends for everybody, whether they're fat or lean in their operation, volume trends are not good. And the test will be over time, three, five years, are the operations which have had their cost cut. Do they do poor in terms of volume than the ones that, in my judgment, look very fat? So far I see no evidence of that whatsoever. I do think at Kraft Heinz, for example, we've got certain lines that will decline in volume. I think we've got certain lines that will increase. But I think overall, the package good industry is not going to go any place in terms of physical volume. And it may decline just a bit. I can't, I've never seen anybody run anything more sensibly than 3G has in terms of taking over. operations where costs were unnecessarily high and getting those costs under control in a hurry. And the volume question we'll look at as we go along. But believe me, I look at those figures every month, and I look at everybody else's figures every month. And I try to, I'm always looking for any signs of underperformance because of many decisions made, and I've seen none. Yeah, and sometimes when you reduce volume, it's very intelligent because you're losing money on the volume, you're discarding. It's quite common for a business, not only to have more employees than it needs, but sometimes it's two or three customers that it'd be better off without. And so it's hard to judge from outside whether things are good or bad just because volume is going up or down a little. Generally speaking, I think the leanly staff companies, do better at everything than the ones that are overstaffed. I think overstaffing is like getting to weigh 400 pounds when you're a normal person. It's not a plus. Yeah, sloppy thinking in one area probably indicates there may well be sloppy thinking elsewhere. I have been a director of 19 public corporations, and I've seen some very sloppy operations and I've seen a very sloppy operations and I've seen a few really outstanding.
[1:20:14]
Warrenbusiness operators, and there's a huge, huge difference. If you have a wonderful business, you can get away with being sloppy. We could be wasting a billion dollars a year at Berkshire, you know, the $650 million after tax, that'd be 4% of earnings, and maybe you wouldn't notice it. But it would. It grows. And Charlie would notice it. But it's the reason. It's the really prosperous companies that, you know, some, well, the classic case, I think, were the tobacco companies many years ago. I mean, they, you know, they went off into this thing and that thing, and, and, you know, it was practically plain money because it was so easy to make. And it didn't require, you know, it didn't require good management. And they took advantage of that fact. Didn't read about some of that in barbarians. at the gate. Okay, Jonathan.
QuestionerBerkshire paid $4.1 billion for Van Tiles' auto retailing business and consolidated its earnings for nearly 10 months last year. Given prevailing acquisition multiples in the industry and margins and the record level of retail auto sales, it seems that the acquisition should have contributed more to Berkshire's bottom line in 2015 than it seemed to, although it's hard to tell for sure since its results were lumped in with those of the German motorcycle apparel acquisition, which was only owned for a part of the year also. I understand the tax deductible and tangibles reduce the effective purchase price of Van Tile, but I still wonder whether there were any one-time charges or whether profits from insurance and finance operations could have been reported somewhere other than in the retail segment. I imagine Mercia is earning a better return on the acquisition than is so far apparent, but I wonder if you could explain the difference between the likely economics of the deal and what I infer from the annual report figures.
WarrenYeah. Well, you're right about it. It is better than it looks. For one thing, we got a billion dollars of securities, roughly, with the 4.1, and those securities were basically carrying at a quarter of a percent. So, but that billion is available to us, and that came with the deal. There are some very, very, very significant acquisition accounting charges that will continue for a couple of years, and that I'm happy to have taken that way. The economics of Van Tile, I would say, have worked out almost exactly as I would. If you add me a year ago, layout projection, I don't do it, but if I had, it would look very much
[1:23:12]
Warrenlike things that turned out. And Jeff Rocker, who runs that operation, really fits the Berkshire mold. I mean, we've got a first-class CEO there. But take a billion off the purchase purchase for openers, and then there are some amortization charges of items that are allowable that make you correctly see a fairly low figure against what it appears the acquisition price it was. So far, it's exactly on schedule. And the schedule was perfectly satisfactory.
WarrenWe haven't, incidentally, we haven't had much luck so far in acquiring other auto dealerships based on the same metrics that we bought Van Tile. And I think to a small degree, that's because people think we paid more for Van Tile than we did. They're not seeing certain factors. in it, so they think we paid X, and therefore they're entitled to X, and we didn't pay X, so we haven't made it. We've bought very little so far. I hope that changes in the future, but we're not going to change, we're not going to change our metrics in terms of how we value auto dealerships.
QuestionerGood afternoon, Mr. Buffett and Mr. Bunger. I'm John Gorey from Iowa City, Iowa. When interest rates go from zero to negative in a country, How does that change the way that you value a company or a stock? Do you choose a high valuation because the discount rate is low? Or on the other hand, do you choose a low valuation because the cash flow is likely to be poor?
WarrenWell, going from, which we haven't done in this country yet, but going from zero to minus a half is really no different than going from four to three and a half. I mean, it has a different feel to it, obviously. if you have to pay a half a point to somebody, but if you have your yield or your base rate reduced by a half a point, it's of some significance, but it isn't dramatic. What's dramatic is interest rates being where they are generally. I mean, whether it's zero plus a quarter, minus a quarter, plus a half, minus a half, we are dealing with a situation of essentially very close to zero interest rates, and we have been for a long time and longer than I would have anticipated. The nature of it is that you'll pay more for a business when interest rates are zero than if they were like 15% when Boker was around. And you can take that up and down the line. I mean, we don't get too exact about it because it isn't that exact to science, but very cheap money makes me pay a little more for businesses than when money was at what we
[1:26:21]
Warrenpreviously thought was normal rates and very tight money would cause me to pay somewhat less. I mean, you know, we had a rule for 2,600 years that ESOP lived around 600 B.C., but he didn't happen to know it was B.C., but, you know, you can't know everything. And it was that a burden a hand is worth doing the Bush, but a burden of hand now is worth about nine-tenths of a burden in the Bush in Europe, you know, because it depends on how far out the Bush is, but it keeps getting worth less as you go along. So these are very unusual times that way. And if you ask me whether I paid a little more for precision cash parts because interest rates were around zero than if they'd been 6 percent, the answer is yes. I try not to pay too much more, but it has an effect. And if interest rates continue at this rate for a long time. If people ever really start thinking something close to this is normal, that will have an enormous effect on asset values. It already has some effect. Charlie?
CharlieYeah, but I don't think anybody really knows much about negative interest rates. We never had them before. And we never had periods of stasis, except for the Great Depression. We didn't have things like happened to Japan. Great modern nation playing all the monetary tricks, Keynesian tricks, stimulus tricks, and mired in stasis for 25 years. And none of the great economists who studied this stuff and taught it to our children understand it either. So we just do the best we can. And they still don't understand it.
WarrenNo. And our advantage is that we know we don't understand it. It's really, it's interesting, though. I mean, we are, you know, it's, it makes for an interesting movie. And it does modestly affect what we pay for businesses. Whether, I don't think anybody expected to last this long, do you, Charlie, virtually?
CharlieI don't think everybody, if you're not confused, you haven't thought about it correctly.
WarrenYeah, I thought about it correctly then. Becky.
Becky QuickWarren, in the past, you've talked about GEICO working with IBM's Watson. Yeah. And this shareholder, Guillermo Bermudez, writes in and wants to know, would IBM be able to offer insurance industry competitors of GEICO, the solutions developed with GEICO help and expense.
WarrenI would think that there would be confidentiality provisions to protect GEICO because in as much as GEICO educates IBM as to insurance issues, GEICO could be at jeopardy of competitors gaining
[1:29:18]
Otheror equaling its advantage if they purchase solutions jointly developed by GEICO and IBM. Yeah, I would say the answer to that is that both parties have thought about that matter and very intensively and extensively. and neither would be in a position to talk about it. I don't like to not answer any question, but there's some things that it doesn't pay the answer. Am I right, Gerald?
OtherYes, of course you're right.
OtherI like that. Cliff?
QuestionerYou've long stressed the importance of taking a long-term view when investing. Over the decades, your substantial returns in American Express seem to support your point. Now, you've talked in the past about the ability of American Express to reinvent itself over time, but today it seems to be a company that does doesn't have alternative businesses, and its brand doesn't seem to have the same cachet as it once did. Shouldn't approve an investor, shouldn't Berkshire periodically reassess its reasons for owning an investment?
WarrenWell, we reassess our reasons for owning all investments on almost a continuous basis. And both Charlie and I do that, and we're usually in a general range of agreement, but sometimes we are a fair distance apart, perhaps. There's no question that, you know, that we're usually that payments are an area of intense interest to a lot of very smart people who've got a lot of resources. And rapid change.
OtherYeah, and rapid change, and it will change.
WarrenAnd I personally feel okay about American Express, and I'm happy to own it. I think, but their position, and it has been under attack for decades, more intensively later lately, and it will continue to be under attack. I mean, it's too big a business, and it's too interesting a business, and it could be too attractive a business for people to ignore it, and it plays to the talents of some very smart people. I mean, it's a natural that a great many organizations that are really quite able think about it, and it's big. So a lot of great businesses aren't quite so great as they use. to be the package good business for the Procter and Campbells and so forth of the war, General Mills. They're all weaker than they used to be at their peak. And the auto companies. I mean, when Joe... Oh, my God. When I think of the power of General Motors when I was young and what happened, they wiped out all the shareholders, I would no more have predicted that. When I was young, General Motors loomed over the economy like a colossus. It looked totally.
[1:32:06]
Warrentotally invincible. Torrents of cash, torrents of everything. Trying to hold down market share. Yes, because they, yeah, they were afraid they'd be too monopolistic. And so the world changes and we can't change, make a portfolio change every time something is a little less advantage than it used to be. But you have to be. You have to be thinking all the time in alert to whether there's been something that really changes the game in a in a big way. And that's not only true for American Express. That's true for other things we own, including things we own 100 percent of. And we'll be wrong sometimes. We'll be late sometimes. We'll be wrong sometimes. But we'll be right sometimes, too. But it's not that we're not cognizant of threats, but assessing the probabilities of those threats being a minor problem or a major problem or a life, threatening problem. You know, it's a tough game, but that's what makes our job interesting. I think anybody in payments probably who's an established long-time player with an old method has more danger than used to exist. It's just there's more fluidity of it.
QuestionerOkay, station three. Hi, Mr. Buffett. Hi. Hi. Hi, Mr. Munger. I'm from Flagstaff, Arizona. My name is Mick Kelly. My family runs some cattle ranch is down in Arizona. And that's kind of what my question pertains to. I'm curious on your thoughts as it relates to the expanding global population in investing in cattle. And if you think it's wise, thank you.
WarrenCharlie?
CharlieI think it's one of the worst business I can imagine for somebody like us. There's nothing personal about this.
WarrenYeah. Not only is it a bad business, we have no aptitude for it. Some people have done well in it, Charlie.
CharlieBoy, yeah, they have one good year every 20 years or something.
WarrenYeah. I know you guys like State. Very much. But not owning cattle.
CharlieYeah. Yeah. Actually, I know a few people that have done reasonably well in cattle, but they usually own banks on the side or something. But I wish you the best in it.
WarrenYeah. And I'm in Keywood Plaza if you want to send anything along. Somebody has to occupy the tough niches in the economy. We need you.
QuestionerThank you.
OtherThank you.
Andrew Ross SorkinYeah. Andrew. Warren and Charlie. Well, the first part's for Charlie, second part's for Warren. Charlie, you clearly understand the power of incentives. How do you apply this at Berkshire when designing compensation formula without naming names or dollar amounts, please illustrate for us with examples of a couple of examples of how
[1:35:42]
QuestionerBerkshire's operating managers get paid for performance in different industries. The second part is for Warren, which is you once said you'd write about how we should compensate the next Berkshire CEO. Can you describe exactly how we should do it now?
CharlieWell, Warren, worry about the next CEO. But the, when it comes to the system, our incentive systems are different, and what they try to is the reality of each situation. And the basic rule on incentives is you get what you reward for. So if you have a dumb incentive system, you get dumb outcomes. And one of our really interesting incentive systems is at GEICO. And I'll let Warren explain it to you because we don't have a normal profits type incentive for the people at GEICO. Warren tell them because it's really interesting.
WarrenYeah, well, at GEICO, we have two variables. and they apply to well over 20,000 people. I think you have to be there a year, but beyond that point, anybody's been there a year or more, and I could be wrong on the exact period, is subject and knows, understands that these two variables will determine bonus compensation, and as you go up the ladder ladder, and as you go up the ladder, it has a multiplier effect. It's still the same two variables, but it gets to be larger and larger in terms of bonus compensation as a percentage of your base. But it's always significant. It's always significant. And those two variables are very simple. I care about growing the business, and I care about growing it with profitable business. So we have a grid which consists of growth in policies in force on one axis, not gross and because that's reflected by average premiums which are outside their control. But growth in policies and force. And then on the other grid, we have the profitability of seasoned business. It costs a lot of money to put business on the books. I mean, we spent a lot of money on advertising and all of that. So the first year, any business we put on the books is going to reduce profit significantly. And I don't want people to be worried about the profit if it's going, that comes a – that that might be impaired by growing the business fast. So profit of season business, growth of policies enforced. Very simple. We've used it since 1995, we've put a tiny little tweak or two in for new businesses or something. But it's overwhelmingly the simple system. Everybody understands it. In February or so, it's a big day when the two variables are announced and people
[1:38:42]
Charliefigure out how they come out on it. And it totally aligns the goals of the organization in terms of compensation with the goals of the owner. And that's a simple one. The interesting thing about version. It's simple, but other people might reward something like just profits, and so the people don't take on new business that should take it on because it hurts profits. So you've got to think these things through, and of course, Warren's good at that. And so is Tony Nicely. Yeah. Just thinking about, you know, I mean, very, somebody comes to say, well, you reward profits. You don't want to reward profits. I mean, alone, it'd be the dumbest thing you could do them. You just quit advertising and, you know, start shrinking the business a little. That's a, and like I said, that people there know that the very top person is getting paid based on those same two variables. So that they don't think that the, you know, the guys at the top have got a cushy deal compared to them. and all of that. It's just a very logical system. The interesting thing, and I'll get to your second thing in the second question in a minute, but the interesting thing is that if we brought in a compensation consultant, they would start coming up with plans that would be designed for all of Berkshire and get us all pulling together, you know. Maybe an undertaking parlor. Yeah. God knows where they'd get the plan. And they, you know, the idea of having a sort of a, sort of a, coordinated arrangement for incentive compensation across 70 or 80 businesses or whatever me is just totally nuts. And yet I would almost guarantee you that if we brought in somebody, they would be thinking in terms of some master plan and little subplans and all this kind of thing and explain it with all kinds of objectives. We try to figure out what makes sense in each business we're in. There's some businesses where the top person is enormously important, or some businesses where the business itself dominates the nature, the result. We try to design a plan that makes sense. In certain cases, I asked one fellow that came to work for us, or that was selling me as a business. The day I met him, he came to the office, and he had a business. He wanted to sell, but he also wanted to keep running it. And I made a deal with him on it. And then I said, you know, tell me what the compensation plan should be. And he said, well, he said, I thought you told me that.
[1:41:22]
WarrenI said, no. I said, I don't want a guy working for me that has a plan that he thinks doesn't make sense or that he's unhappy with or chewing at him or he's complaining to his wife about or whatever it may be. Tell me what makes sense. And he told me what made sense and it made sense. And we've been using it ever since. Never changed a word. We have so many different kinds of businesses. of businesses. Some of them are very tough businesses. Some of them are very easy businesses. Some of them are capital intensive. Some of them don't take capital. I mean, you can just go up and down the line and to think that you'll have a simple formula that can be sort of stamped out for the whole place. And then with some overall stuff for corporate results on top of it. But you'd be wasting a lot of money and you'd be misdirecting incentives. So we think it through one at a time and it seems to work out pretty well. In terms of the person that succeeds me, it's true. I have sent a memo to the, in fact, I sent two memos to the board with some thoughts on that. Maybe I'll send a third one, but I don't think it would be wise to disclose exactly what's in those letters. But it's the same principle as I've just gotten through describing. And he wanted more bad examples. A lot of the bad examples of incentives come from banking and investment banking. And if you reward somebody with some share of the profits, and the profits are being reported using accounting practices that cause profits to exist on paper that are not really happening in terms of underlying economics, then people are doing the wrong thing and it's endangering the bank and hurting the country and everything else. And that was a major part of the cause of the great financial crisis is that the banks were reporting a lot of income. a lot of income they weren't making, and the investment banks were too. The accounting allowed for a long time a lender to use as this bad debt provision, his previous historical loss rate. So an idiot could make a lot of money by just making way game of your loans at high interest and accruing a lot of interest and saying I'm not going to lose any more money on these because I didn't lose money on different loans in the past. That was insane for the accountants to allow that. And literally insane. It's not, that's not too strong in the word. And yet nobody's ashamed of it. I've never written an accountant that's ashamed of it.
[1:43:49]
CharlieThe other, another thing that possibility is when you get the very greedy chief executive and who wants an enormous payoff for himself and to justify it, designs a pyramid so that a whole bunch of other people down the line get overpaid in some relation, or get paid in relation to something they have no control over, just so it doesn't look like he doesn't look like. he's all by himself in terms of that fantastic payoff he's arranged for himself. There's a lot of misbehavior. You know, we saw it, you saw it in pricing of stock options. I mean, people that, you know, I literally would hear conversations in a boardroom where they hoped they were issuing the options, you know, at a terribly low price. Well, if you get people interested in having options issued at a terribly low price, they may even occasionally. occasionally do something that might cause that. And it's certainly, what can be dumber than a company looking for a way to issue shares at the lowest price. But compensation isn't as complicated as the world will like to make it, but that's, if you were a consultant, you want to make people think it's very complicated and that only you could solve this terrible problem for them that they couldn't solve. We want it simple and right, and we don't want it to reward what we don't want. If you have, those with children, just imagine how your household would work. You constantly rewarded every child for bad behavior. The house would be ungovernable in short order. Okay, Greg.
QuestionerDuring the past several years, Burlington Northern has spent more than just about every railroad on capital expenditures. While the company reduced its CAPEX budget from $5.7 billion during 2015 to $4.3 billion this year, It still represents around 20% of annual revenue, which we believe is at least a bare minimum for most railroads to continue to invest indefinitely. Other than maintenance cap X, which is likely to count for around 60% of that total, what do you believe are the most likely additional investment opportunities for BNSF, realizing that the secular declining coal, which is accelerated by late, and the complicated nature of crude oil shipments where BNSF has already invested heavily in the past few years, are likely to push it more towards other parts of the business. business.
Greg AbelAs I mentioned in the annual report, in the case of all railroads, merely spending their depreciation expense will not keep them in the same place.
[1:46:30]
WarrenSo depreciation is an inadequate measure of the actual steady state capital expenditure needs of a railroad, even in these fairly non-inflationary ways. And that's an important. consideration in in buying the business. We knew that going in and and it's been reinforced since. We spent a lot of money in 2015 because he had a lot of problems to correct. And that was when we spent the $5.7 billion. I would say that the true maintenance cap-ex, if you're looking at $4.3 billion, is higher than 60% of that number when you really evaluate. keeping the railroad in competitive shape to do just the same volume as it would be doing the year before. So there is an additional expense at the NSF that is not reflected in the figures. There we also have a lot of intangible expenses at some other businesses that aren't real expenses. I mean, overall, I think that Berkshire's fees. figures actually are on the conservative side in relation to real economic earnings. But that's not true at any railroad. They've also had something called positive train control, which amounts to a lot of money for the industry. I think we may be a little further along than most of them in paying for that, but that's $200 or $300 million a year and maybe, I don't know whether it be close to $2 billion or something like that in aggregate. So it is a very capital-intensity. of business. We run at the BNSF, we run far more gross and revenue ton miles than any other railroad in North America. And that has obviously some is a factor on capital expenditures. But I would say that it's very likely that we will spend more than depreciation, unfortunately, quite a bit more than depreciation, stay in the same place for a long, long time, as will other railroads. And that is a, that's a negative in the picture. We will always be looking for ways to use capital expenditure money to develop additional business. And we get that opportunity regularly. It's just a question of the size of it. And we did a lot of that in the Bakken, and we recognized. We reckon we got benefits from it. We're not getting benefits as much as we thought we would at this point when the price of oil has fallen off. But that was a very sensible, very sensible capital expenditure, and I hope we get the opportunity to do more. What's happening in coal with the decline? I mean, that doesn't really have anything to do with our overall capital expenditure budget, except we won't be spending a whole lot of money to expand in that arena.
[1:49:48]
Greg AbelIs that answer your question? Okay. I was just thinking maybe with intermodal as well, if that's, you know, a longer-term opportunity to invest more heavily there. Well, we're always open to it, but we would want, you know, you have to see a fair amount of revenue coming from, we had a proposition very recently, which we worked on for many, many years in terms of making the port at Long Beach considerably more efficient. And we spent a lot of money on that and spent a lot of time. And we would have spent a lot more money, a whole lot more money, if it had been approved. And recently, a court came out with a decision that was negative on it. And whether that kills the chance to do that or we look someplace else, you know, we'll have to look at the situation. Our competitors there pretend to be environmentalists. It's a common practice now. Yeah, in any event, we would, we thought we had something that made a lot of sense for both the area and for the transportation system of the country. But there are a lot of... We're trying to do the right thing, and so far we've lost. But we're still willing to spend a lot of money. Yeah. If we can find things that make the railroad more efficient or make it larger. I mean, either way.
OtherOkay, Section 4. Good afternoon, Mr. Buffett, Mr. Munger. My name is Marcus Douglas. I'm an investment advisor from Houston, Texas. Where I'm from, there are a lot of people losing their jobs, mostly due to the sharp decline of crude oil prices. My question pertains to the overall State of the Union, more so than my dear city. Keeping in mind that crude oil is primarily by and sold in American dollars. Do either of you believe the major fluctuations in the supply of crude oil influence the future monetary policy decisions? Decisions? Sorry.
WarrenWell, that's yours, Charlie.
CharlieWell, my answer would be not much.
WarrenYeah, it's an important industry, obviously, and the decline in the price of oil had a lot of effects, very good for the consumer, millions in oil. millions and, well, hundreds of millions of consumers, and very bad for certain of the businesses, like the one we bought in Louisville, and some others to a degree. Net, it should be good for the United States overall to have low prices for oil. We're a net oil importer. I mean, just like it's good for the United States, have low prices for oil. good for the United States have low prices for bananas. We're a banana importer.
[1:52:57]
WarrenAnything we net buy is a plus when prices fall, but that oil is big enough and extends into so many areas that it also hurts plenty when the price of oil falls, and it particularly hurts capital values. So the valued, the consumer gets the benefit, here she goes to the phyllic station, you know, every two or three weeks or something like that, and it comes in relatively small increments. The capital value contraction, which is huge if you, if you project out lower-priced oil for a while, you know, hits immediately. I mean, an oil field that was worth X, maybe worth half X or a third of X or no X overnight. And so there are certain big factors, well, in terms of our chemical operation, people just stop ordering. So you have this big impact on capital values immediately, and you have the benefits move in over time. But net, the United States, is better off, and Saudi Arabia is worse off when prices of oil or lower. It's a, oil is a big part of the economy, but our economy. Our economy has continued to make progress overall during the oil price decline. But obviously, given regions, suffered disproportionately just as like they boomed, you know, they got a real boom. And during the period when it was at $100 and when fracking came in big time, Charlie?
CharlieWell, I think that we'll do for this subject.
Carol LoomisOkay, Carol. Thank you. The question is from Larry Leibowitz of Boston. The year-end balance sheet for our manufacturing, service, and retailing operations shows total current assets of $28.6 billion, of which cash and equivalents are $6.8 billion. Meanwhile, total current liabilities are $12.7 billion, implying networking capital of $15.9 billion. It has become increasingly common for companies like Apple and Dell to finance. their business via their suppliers, in some cases with negative working capital. Why is it necessary for these Berkshire businesses to have so much working capital, particularly so much cash? More generally, how do you think about efficiently managing the working capital of a business segment so large, sprawling, and decentralized as this one?
WarrenYeah, well, we have excess cash every place at Berkshire. So we don't, at present, it really doesn't make any difference whether we have a business. it at certain subsidiaries or other subsidiaries. So we do not, we have excess cash. As I've pointed out in the past, we'll never go below $20 billion of cash and we'll actually stay comfortably above it.
[1:56:10]
Greg AbelBut allowing for the preferred that's going to, of Kraft Heinz, will be, again, over $60 billion of consolidated cash. We don't really worry much about what pocket it's in. It's not making anything anyway at these levels. If rates move higher, we've actually got the mechanics in process to do sweep accounts and that sort of thing. So I would pay no attention to the particular cash that's being held in that category there. The cash in Berkshire Hathaway Energy, the cash in the railroad, we have independent levels that we don't guarantee their that and they run with ample cash and we would not look at sweeping that down to a minimum. But if you talk about 40 or 50 of our miscellaneous subsidiaries, we will go to a sweep account when rates get where it really makes any difference to do it. But right now, when you're getting zero, it makes much difference where you get zero. So I think the fellows over analyze it a little bit, but I understand why he did it.
WarrenWarren, one of his ideas is why don't we imitate some of these other people and pay our suppliers a lot more slowly, so we have more working capital? Well, that's a big thing in business now. And last year, a Walmart, for example, went to almost all of their suppliers, as I understand, and certainly the companies that we supply. And they basically had a list of half a dozen things that they. wanted present suppliers to agree to. And one of those things was more extended terms, and each of our companies made their own decisions. But my guess is they got more extended terms from most of their suppliers, maybe a very high percentage of their suppliers. And they may have gone from, I don't remember the exact request, but they may, whether they went from 30 to 60 days or what it was. But they got a meaningful extension. So you will, you know, in a couple years or a year, it takes time to implement, you'll see higher payables relative to sales at Walmart than you saw a year a year or two ago. And, you know, they are under a lot of pressure competing with Amazon and others. And that's one of the ways they expressed it. And I've seen it down other places. and it's conceivable that one of our subsidiaries might deem it wise to do it, but I don't think they will. I mean, I think that the pressure for cash at Berkshire is not that high, and I think that the pressure for, or the desire for great relations with suppliers would probably overcome, and most of our managers minds, any desire to start extending terms.
[1:59:31]
WarrenYeah, I think it's hard to do that brutally when you're rich and your supplier isn't, and think that your supplier is going to love you. And so I think there's something to be said for leaning over backward to have a win-win relationship with both suppliers and customers, always. It's never been pushed at Berkshire. You can argue we've got a pretty good thing going and float anyway, so. Yeah, and we don't need it. That somebody else set the record on that one.
QuestionerOkay, Johnny. Post-American corporations separate out supposedly, separate out supposedly one-time restructuring costs, whereas Berkshire doesn't. Berkshire's reported operating earnings are, therefore, in my opinion, of higher quality. Have you ever calculated how much higher operating earnings on average would be if Berkshire separated out plant closing costs, product line, exits, severance, pay, and similar items? Is it a material number, or does Berkshire not incur much in the way of these types of costs typically because most of you, your acquisitions are standalone.
WarrenLet me take that one. That's a question like asking, why don't you kill your mother to get the insurance money? We don't do it. We're not interested in manipulating those numbers, and we haven't had a restructuring charge ever, and I don't think we're about to start.
CharlieYeah. I would say this, too, Johnny. We don't do that. The numbers would not be huge. There could be a year, I guess. I suppose when they might be for some reason. But they are more conservatively stated than most companies, and I think they're of higher quality. But I pointed out also that I think that our depreciation expense at the railroad, which is standard, and which all the other railroads use, is inadequate as a measure of true operating earnings. And you're talking about it. We like to advertise our defects. Not all of them. There's no question that we, I think we will have more amortization of certain intangibles in our, which reduce earnings and reported earnings, but which in reality are not expenses, we'll have more of that than some companies. And I've pointed that out. I haven't, I never, I never want to report one of these things where I have all the whole adjusted earnings set out and say this is what you're supposed to pay attention to because every one of those I've seen virtually results in some inflation of figures and things are good enough at Berkshire. We don't need to inflate the figures.
OtherOkay. Station 5.
[2:02:31]
QuestionerThis is Martin calling from Germany. I'm a fixed income manager. We launched with Henry Labor a fund and you have my sympathy. Yeah, yeah. The volume is. The volume is about 600, 650 million. We are 4.1% ahead this year. Obviously my question is about fixed income. If I look in your annual report, it's about the volume of 25 billion. And if I add, let's say, the CDS, you were selling the CDS, and it's about a volume of 7 or 8 billion. So my concrete question is the premium on your CDS is about 31%, 31 basis. points at the end of the year. So market to market, it's probably at the high teens or at 20s. So would you consider to unwind this position? Are you allowed to do it? In the annual world, you say no, but probably you can make exactly the contrary trade on it. That means you are buying protection. Is that a philosophy which you stand behind? Could you do that from the any point of view, when the premium are extremely low, which is at the case that the spreads are, as I said, between 15 and 20 phases points. Can you go to have his?
WarrenThat sounds like it was designed for you. I think I think he was referring to. We have one position left over from six or seven years ago or thereabouts that involves us selling protection on zero coupon municipal bonds with a nominal value. maturity value, which is, since there's zero coupons, is far off and not present value at all, I think 7.7 billion or something like that. And we're just sitting with that position because we like the position. And the gentleman mentions that our CDS, our CDS is, that's an insurance premium against our debt that people buy. A, there's a fair amount of activity in it from time to time. And I think that's partially caused by the fact that we neither collateralize that municipal contract that he refers to, but we don't collateralize with minor exceptions, the equity puts that are still out there. So the counterparties have to buy, I believe this is the case. I think the counterparties have to buy protection on Berkshire's credit it through CDS. Now, the people they buy it from, their credit probably isn't as good as Berkshire. So, I mean, I think they're, but it's probably in an internal rule at some of these firms that are on the other side of the contract. And so, but that really doesn't make any difference to us. Back in 2008 and nine, our CDS prices went up to a crazy level. And I even commented here at the annual meeting that I would love to be selling them myself, except
[2:05:46]
WarrenI wouldn't allow to. But what goes on in the CDS market really isn't of any particular interest to us. And it's too bad for the other guys. They didn't get collateral from us, and we wouldn't have given it to them. And so they have to buy these things that, like I say, from our standpoint, they're wasting their money, but they probably have internal rules that make them. I think I've addressed your question, but, Charlie, do you think I've addressed this question?
CharlieWell, the truth of the matter is that we don't pay much attention to trying to get an extra two basis points by being gamey on our short-term things, and that credit default position is a weird historical accident, and we don't pay much attention to it either. It'll go away and do, of course. Yeah, all of our contracts are just going to expire. We're not a, now we do a few operational contracts in our energy company, and there's a couple places where they, for their own reasons, and sometimes because the utility commissions want them to. They do certain things, but it's peanuts. And the positions that I instituted six or seven years ago are basically all in a runoff position, and the first big runoffs will be in 2018 in a couple of years. We're basically not in that. We're not in. We don't fool around with our own credit default swaps at all. No, no, never, no. But I would have liked to have sold them in 2008. They actually got up. People were paying 500 bases, but 5% in terms of, betting that Berkshire would go broke, which was totally crazy, but I couldn't take advantage of it. I wanted to, though.
Becky QuickBecky. This question comes from Tom Hensley, a longtime shareholder from Houston, Texas, who says, over the years you've been effusive in your praise of Ajit Jane and his contributions to Berkshire. In the 2009 chairman's letter you wrote, If Charlie, Ajit and I are ever sinking in a boat, and you can only save one of us, swim to Ajit. My question is. is what if we don't get to Ajit in time? Please comment on the impact on national indemnity in Berkshire and whether or not there's another Ajit in the house.
WarrenThere's not another Ajit in the house. I didn't hear the part immediately before, when you were, but there's not another a jeet in the house. The impact on national indemnity, I guess the impact on the insurance companies as a result. If we lost him? Yeah, it would be very significant and that would be true of some other managers that some
[2:08:23]
Greg Abelthere's some serious, but it's quite dramatic with the Jiet's operation because literally there were a few years when we had like 25 or so or 30 people where that operation, it was an unusual period to be in, but where its earning potential under a jeet was fantastic. That probably won't happen to that degree again, and I wish it would, but the, but his, but his he's done a tremendous amount for Berkshire, but I can, you know, start with Tony. You go to all, there have been a lot of managers that have created billions and billions of dollars of value for Berkshire. I mean, and maybe you can get into the tens of billions, you know, it's having a fantastic manager that has a large business, potential business available to them and who makes the most of it, you know. It's huge over time. You don't see it necessarily in a week or a month or anything at the sort, but when you're building capital value, I mean, think of the value of Jeff Bezos to Amazon, I mean, that it wouldn't have happened without them, you know, and you're looking at huge values, and I can name other situations. You know, the value of Tom Murphy and Dan Burke was the difference between zero and what they ended up with. I mean, they built that thing from a bankrupt UHF station in Albany. It wasn't that they were, they didn't invent television or anything of the sort. They just managed it so well. So really outstanding managers, they're invaluable, and we want to align. Charlie and I can't do it ourselves, but we want to align ourselves with them and then, and and then, you know, have them feel about Berkshire the way we feel about it. And if we do that, we have an enormous asset, and we do have in Ajit and a number of the other managers, Charlie.
CharlieYes, and Ajit has a longer shelf life than we do. He'd be particularly missed.
WarrenWell, let's not give up here, Charlie. I reject such defeatism.
QuestionerCliff. Thank you. Um, low to negative interest rates is something that's been discussed a few times today. And you mentioned its implications for a return on float. I was wondering, how should shareholders value the 25% of your, of the float that's been created by retrocessional reinsurance, where the business is booked at an underwriting loss, and at times has adversely developed?
Ajit JainCliff brings up some of our business, uh, in the insurance business, we take with either the probability. of some underwriting loss in order to get to use the money for a very long period of time.
[2:11:35]
WarrenAnd it would look under today's interest rates like we can't do much with that. There's two answers to that. We don't think it will, for the duration of the kind of contracts we have, we don't expect these rates, but we could be wrong. But the second one also is that we do think that occasionally we will get chances even in periods of low interest rates to do things that are, will produce quite a bit, very reasonable returns. And so we do not, we are not measuring it against, you know, double a corporates or anything of the sort. We're measuring it in the potential utility to us with our really pretty unusual flexibility flexibility in respect to the deployment of funds and this long period when we'll have an opportunity, perhaps to come up with one or two things that, where we can deploy money at a rate that may be quite a bit higher than other people assume now that money can be deployed. Charlie?
CharlieYeah, we're willing to pay a little money now to have a certainty of having a lot of money available in case something really attractive comes up in a bit difficult time. It's an option cost.
WarrenIt's an option cost, right? And that option came in handy in 2008-9, for example.
OtherIs it ever?
OtherOkay, Station 6.
QuestionerHi, Charlie and Warren. My name is Mindy Jensen, and I'm from Longmont, Colorado. I work for the largest real estate investing social network online called BiggerPockets.com. We're seeing investors starting to get concerned that the real estate market is a bit frothy, similar to the run-up of 2005, 6, and 7 that led to the crash in 2008. Warren, in 2012, you told Becky Quick that if you had a way to easily manage them, you'd buy 100,000 houses and rent them out. How do you feel about the real estate market today?
WarrenIt's not as attractive as it was in 2012. They, you know, we're not particularly better at predicting real estate markets than we are stock markets or interest rate markets, but there's certainly, and it's driven to some extent by these low interest rates, but there are certainly properties that are being sold at very, very low cap rates that strike me as having more potential for loss than gain. But again, if you can borrow money for very, very little and you think you're getting into some very safe asset, 100 basis points or, you can borrow money for very little, and you think you think you're getting into some very safe asset 100 basis points or 150 basis points higher, there's a great temptation
[2:14:36]
Warrento do it. I think it's a mistake to do that, but, you know, I could be wrong. I don't see a nationwide bubble in residential real estate now at all. I think, you know, I think in a place like Omaha or, you know, I think in a place like residential real estate now at all. you know, you know, most of the country, you are not paying bubble prices for residential real estate, but it's quite different than it was in 2012. And I don't think the next time around the problem is going to be a real estate bubble. I think that it certainly was the cause in a very large part of what happened in 2008 and but I don't I don't think it'll be the replica of that. Charlie?
CharlieNothing to add.
Andrew Ross SorkinOkay. Andrew. Warren, Todd and Ted now have been at Berkshire for several years. What have been their biggest hits and failures, specifically? And what have they learned from Charlie and Warren? And what are the biggest differences between you and them?
WarrenWell, Well, I'll answer the last part, the easiest. I am trying to think of very big deals that we can do something in investments or in business, preferably, and just in operating businesses. I mean, they still are, their primary job is working on a, each has a $9 billion portfolio. And one of them has, I don't know, perhaps seven or eight positions, and the other one has maybe 13 or or 14, but they have a very similar approach to investing. They've both been enormously helpful in doing several things, including important things, that for which they don't get paid a dime and which they're just as happy working on as working on the things as they are when they're working on things that do pay off for them financially. They've got their perfect cultural fits for Berkshire. They're smart at what they do, and, you know, they're a big addition to Berkshire. Charlie?
CharlieAgain, I've got nothing to add.
WarrenDid I cover the whole thing, Andrew, or was there one part I missed there?
Andrew Ross SorkinBiggest hits and failures. I think they specifically wanted to know in terms of investments and trying to understand the way you think, perhaps. I think the question was more focused. I think the implication was the way they think and the way you think. Are there differences?
WarrenYeah, they're, you know, I would say they're, you have a bigger universe to work with because they can look at ideas in which they can put 500 million, and I'm looking, I'm trying to think of ways to put, you know, not sums into billions.
[2:17:53]
WarrenBut, and they probably, well, they certainly have a more extensive knowledge of certain industries and activities in business that have developed in the large. last 10 or 15 years, they'd be smarter on that than I am. But their approach to investing, I mean, they're looking for businesses that they understand and that are going to, and through the stocks of those businesses, that they can buy at a sensible price and that they think will be earning significantly more money five or 10 years from now. So it's very similar to what I'm thinking about, except I probably add another zero. to it.
OtherAnd we don't want to talk about specific hits and failures.
WarrenNo.
OtherOkay, Greg.
WarrenYeah, we will never get into disclosing. I mean, we file reports every 90 days that show what Berkshire does in marketable securities, but we don't identify, I may identify whether it's mine or theirs, but we don't get into identifying what they do individually.
QuestionerLooking at Berkshire's finance and financial products segment, there was a fairly significant increase in the amount of cash carriers. carried on the group's books last year. After holding steady between two and two and a half billion dollars during 2012 to 2014, the amount of cash held at the segment spiked up to 5.4 billion at the end of the third quarter of last year and $7.1 billion at the end of 2015. This incidentally coincided with your acquisition of G's rail car leasing unit, as well as the acquisition of several rail car repair and maintenance facilities. Sales and profitability were fairly solid last year, but don't really seem to account. for the magnitude of the change in cash. And investments, debt, and other liabilities do not look to have changed significantly enough to account for the difference, perhaps accounting for about $1 billion of the increase. Just wondering where the additional $3.5 billion in cash came from and whether or not the elevated level of cash at the end of last year is access to the business or a new required level of cash for the operations.
WarrenWell, I can't tell you where it came from. You'd think I would, $3.5 billion. But I can tell you what it was. why we were funneling money into the parent company and in the finance company. That money was basically dedicated to making the $22 billion portion of the precision cash parts purchased that was accounted for for cash. We borrowed, we actually borrowed $12 billion,
[2:20:37]
Warrenbut $10 billion was what was of the borrowing was there. And we pushed money from various sources, depending on who owned what, and that sort of thing. We pushed money into those two entities and eventually into the parent company to take care of the $22 billion that was coming due. It turned out to be at the end of January when the precision cash parts closed. There's really no significance to it other than that.
QuestionerOkay, Station 7. Good afternoon, Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger. My name is Jeffrey Eastup from Cranford, New Jersey. I just have a simple question for you. How would you explain IBM's moat?
WarrenI'm not sure that's a simple question.
QuestionerNo, I don't either.
WarrenWell, it has certain strengths and certain weaknesses, and I don't think we want to get into giving an investment analysis of any of the portfolio companies that we own. I would, I think I'd probably better leave it there, Charlie.
CharlieYeah, it's obviously coping with a considerable change in the computing world. And it's attempting something that's big and interesting, and God knows whether it's going to work modestly or very well. I don't think Warren knows either.
WarrenNo, we'll find out whether the strengths are strengths. But it's a field that a lot of intelligent people are. people are trying to get big in.
QuestionerOkay, we're going to go to Section 8, and then we will adjourn for 15 minutes prior to the formal meeting of the company.
OtherOkay. Thank you.
QuestionerHello, everybody. Good afternoon. My name is Christian Campos. I'm from New York City. I'm a senior accounting major at Beru College, part of the City, part of the City University of New York. And Mr. Buffett, in your annual shareholder letters and during interviews, and even today, your sense of humor always shines through. Where does your sense of humor come from? Please tell us. Thank you.
WarrenThat's just the way I see the world. It's a very interesting and in times very humorous place. Actually, I think Charlie has a better sense of humor than I have, so I'll let him answer where he got his.
CharlieI think if you see the world accurately, it's bound to be humorous because it's ridiculous.
QuestionerWell, I think that's a good note to close on. We will reconvene in 15 minutes for the formal part of the meeting. We have one proxy item to act on, and so I hope that those of you who are interested in learning more about actually the insurance aspects of climate change. We'll stick around and we'll have a discussion in that, and I'll see you at 345.
[2:24:23]
WarrenThank you. Okay, if everybody will please settle down, we'll proceed with the meeting. Meeting will now come to order. I'm Warren Buffett, Chairman, the Board of Directors at the company. I welcome you to this 2016 annual meeting of shareholders. This morning I introduced the Berkshire Hathaway directors that are present. Also with us today, They are partners in the firm of the Deloitte and Tuchar auditors. They are available to respond to appropriate questions you might have concerning their firm's audit of the counts of Berkshire. Sharon Heck is Secretary of Berkshire Hathaway and she will make a written record of the proceedings. Becky Amick has been appointed inspector of elections at this meeting. She will certify that the count of votes cast in the election for directors and the motion be voted upon at this meeting. The name proxy holders for this meeting are Walter Scott and Mark Hamer. Does the Secretary have a report of the number of Berkshire shares outstanding, turned off the lights on me, entitled to vote and represented at the meeting?
OtherYes, I do. As indicated in the proxy statement that accompanied the notice of this meeting that was sent to all shareholders of record on March 2, 2016, the record date for this meeting, there were 807,242,242 shares of Class A, B, Brookshire Hathway, Common Stock Outstanding, with each share entitled to one vote on motions considered at the meeting, and 1,254,000, 393,030 shares of Class B, Brookshire Hathway, Hathway, Common Stock, outstanding, with each share entitled to 1,10,000th of one vote on motions considered at the meeting. Of that number, 575,608, Class A shares, and 772,724,950 Class B shares are represented at this meeting by proxies returned through Thursday evening, April 28th.
WarrenThank you. That number represents a quorum, and we will therefore directly proceed with the meeting. The first order of business will be a reading of the minutes of the last meeting of shareholders. I recognize Mr. Walters Scott, who will place a motion before the meeting.
OtherI move that the reading of the minutes, the last meeting of shareholders be dispensed with, and the minutes be approved.
WarrenDo I hear a second?
OtherI, second the motion.
WarrenThe motion has been moved and seconded. We will vote on the motion by voice vote. Oles in favor say aye. Opposed? The motion is carried. The next item of business is to elect directors. If a shareholders present who did not send in a proxy or wishes to withdraw a proxy previously sent in,
[2:27:28]
Otheryou may vote in person on the election of directors and other matters to be considered at this meeting. Please identify yourself to one of the meeting officials in the aisle so that you can receive a ballot. I recognize Mr. Walter Scott to place a motion before the meeting with respect to election of directors.
OtherI move the Warren Buffett, Charles Munger, Howard Buffett, Stephen Burke, Susan Decker, William Gates, David Goddisman, Charlotte Gaiman, Thomas Murphy, Ron Olson, Walter Scott, and Merrill Whitmer be elected as directors.
OtherAre there a second?
OtherI second the motion.
OtherIt has been moved and seconded. Warren Buffett, Charles Munger, Howard Buffett, Stephen Burke, and Decker, William Gates, David Goddessman, Charlotte Diamond, Thomas Murphy, Ronald Wilson, Walter Scott, and Merrill Whitmer be elected as directors. Are there any other nominations or any discussion?
OtherThe nominations are ready to be active. are ready to be acted upon. If there are any shareholders voting in person, they should now mark their ballot on the election of directors and deliver their ballot to one of the meeting officials in the aisles. Ms. Amick, when you are ready, you may give your report.
OtherMy report is ready. The ballot of the proxy holders, in response to proxies that were received through last Thursday evening, cast not less than 643,789 votes for each nominee. That number far exceeds a majority of the number, of the number of the total votes of all Class A and Class B shares outstanding. The certification required by Delaware law of the precise count of the votes will be given to the Secretary to be placed with the minutes of this meeting.
OtherThank you, Ms. Hammack. Warren Buffett, Charles Munger, Howard Buffett, Steven, Burke, Susan Decker, William, Gage, David Goddustman, Charlotte, Guyman, Thomas Murphy, Ronald Olsen, Walter Scott, and Merrill Whitmer have been elected as directors. The next item of business, of business is a motion put forth by the Nebraska Peace Foundation. The motion is set forth in the proxy statement, and will the projectionist please put up number nine.
OtherHere we are. The motion requested our insurance business issue a report describing their response to the risks posed by climate change, including specific initiatives and goals relating to each risk issue identified. The directors have recommended that the shareholders vote against the proposal. I will now recognize, and I think it will be up in area one,
[2:30:13]
OtherI will now recognize Dr. James Hansen, to present the motion. But I believe maybe the gentleman from the Nebraska Peace Foundation may be introducing it, and then he may introduce Dr. Hansen. To allow all interested shareholders to present their views, I asked the initial speaker to limit his remarks to five minutes, and then those, the microphone of Zoom. Those, the microphone of Zone 1 is available for those wishing to speak for against the motion. Subsequently, Zone 1 is the only microphone station in operation. For the benefit of those present, I ask that each speaker for or against the motion limit themselves, with the exception of the initial speaker, to two minutes and confine your remarks solely to the motion, and the motion should be left up on the, let's see, is that up there or not. Yeah, okay, the motion should be left up there. up there. In a sense, incidentally, it asked us to present a report about the risk to the insurance division by climate change, and I did address this subject in the annual report. That would be a report, and it was a report that was concurred by Ajit Jane, who is number one expert on insurance risks. insurance risk. So that does represent the view of our insurance division and myself as the chief risk officer. But the subject now is open and we welcome the initial speakers' comments. And if you're just going to introduce Dr. Hansen, I can't see who's who up there. Then I presume he will have the five minutes and then subsequent speakers will have two minutes. So go to it. You're on.
QuestionerThank you. My name is Mark Vassina. I'm the treasurer of the Nebraska Peace Foundation, the owner of 1A share of Berkshire Hathaway. We are the sponsor of the shareholder resolution, which Mr. Buffett has described. In so doing, making the recommendation to develop a risk analysis and report on it, we're following the lead of the Bank of England, which last September published a comprehensive report on climate change risks. change risks facing the insurance industry and recommended that its regulated companies conduct reviews of the risks and make this available. The Bank of England regulates the U.K. insurance industry, which is the third largest global insurance market. I'll turn the rest of my time over to world-renowned climate scientist, Dr. James Hansen.
QuestionerThank you for this opportunity. I want to make a suggestion that I hope you will ponder.
[2:33:12]
QuestionerSome aspects of climate have become clear. Humans are changing the atmosphere, and we can measure how this is changing Earth's energy balance. More energy is coming in than going out. So the ocean is warming. Ice sheets are melting, and sea level is beginning to rise. We are now close to a point of handing young people, people, a situation that will be out of control with ice sheet disintegration and multimeter sea level rise during the lifetime of today's young people, which would mean loss of coastal cities and economic devastation. Sea level rise would be irreversible on any time scale of interest to humanity. The other irreversible effect of rapid climate change would be extinction of a substantial fraction of the species on Earth. The bottom line is that we cannot burn all fossil fuels. And the economic law of gravity is that as long as fossil fuels appear to be the cheapest energy, we will keep burning them. So my request, given the respect and the trust the public has in you, is that you reflect upon the possibility of a public statement in favor of a revenue-neutral, gradually rising carbon fee. A carbon fee is needed to make the price of fossil fuels honest, to include the costs to humanity of their air pollution, water pollution, and climate change. A rising carbon fee is needed to spur effective investments by the private sector in clean energies and energy efficiency. Most important, it will steadily phase down fossil fuel use. So I'm not asking you to endorse a carbon fee on the spot, but I hope that you will reflect upon it and perhaps provide a clear statement in your next report. It could be your greatest legacy. It could affect everything, even the course of our future climate. Thanks. Thank you, Dr. Hansen.
WarrenI might say that we Although we may differ on some specifics, and I don't know, I am no expert on this subject whatsoever, I don't think you and I have any difference in the fact that it's important that climate change, you know, since it's something where there is a point of no return, if we are on the course that you think is certain and I think it's probable, that it's a terribly important subject. but the motion that was put forth was relating to the insurance aspects of it. And we have discussed, believe me, we have thought and discussed insurance aspects and I've, in effect, given a report in the, which was asked for by this, within the annual report.
[2:36:29]
WarrenSo it is really not the issue before the shareholders is not how the issue before the shareholders is not how, I feel about whether climate change is real or whether carbon tax is appropriate, it's whether it poses a risk to our insurance business. And I recognize the Bank of England, read that report, but we respectfully disagree with them in terms of, not in terms of the importance of climate change, but in terms of the risk to our insurance business. We don't, we are not forced, we don't write policies for a long period we're not forced to write a policy on anything. So we are, our judgment is made as propositions are presented to us, usually as to whether for one year we are willing to accept a given risk for a given price. And that, obviously, climate is enormously important in our activities, hurricanes being the most important probably, although we also get involved in earthquakes, but that is what the proposal is about and that, and we've given a response to that, and it does not mean that we differ on the importance of climate change to the human race. So with that, I'd be delighted to hear from the various seconders.
QuestionerHello, my name is Jim Jones. I'm the executive director of the Katie School of Insurance at Illinois State University. I would like to express my concerns based on three hidden risks associated with climate change. The first relates to stranded assets of insurers investing in fossil fuels. The second is a more insidious risk related to climate change. This risk is associated with the long-term liabilities associated with property, life, and health lines of business. And I realize that a number of intelligent people and experts don't see a long-term liability, but they're missing one important part is that primary insurers are not able to withdraw or reprise the entire books of business. Following Hurricanes, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma, new hurricane models were developed in Florida, and they attempted to get the recommended rate of the recommended rate. approvals for that. They were not allowed to. And so many insurers began to withdraw from that market. Ten years later, that about 40% of the underperforming business is still on the books of those insurers. And this could play out in several other states that are exposed to climate risk. For a reinsurer, the value of reinsurance with the value of reinsurance with their customers is a long-term business.
[2:39:51]
QuestionerThe reason why this is so important is because, according to my count, 156 of your reinsurance customers have filed climate change disclosures. And these customers are looking for long-term interest being protected by their reinsurer. And if not, there's a potential for a relationship default risk. that could occur if they perceive your reinsurance as just being one-year contracts that can be repriced or withdrawn, and you enter into that world of the expanding market competition of alternative reinsurance, which just last year was $72 billion. And earlier this quarter, we set a record of $2.2 billion in CAT bonds. Thank you.
WarrenAnd I would point out that we have not been asked ever, to my knowledge, to write long-term contracts. Our primary insurers know that we look at it one year at a time, and we will not write business that we think has a major negative probability. And they don't expect us to. It's way less a relational business than in the past. It's much more a transactional business. But we will not, right, if we lose the customer because they want us to do something stupid, we lose the customer. And there is not a, in our business, I'm not speaking for other reinsurers, but in our business, and I believe with most other reinsurers, they are not going to do something that they think is terribly discharacterial. and advantageous to them just to maintain a relationship. That's not really a relationship and be a subsidy. So I do, that does not strike me, frankly, as a factor at all of any negative consequence at Berkshire. We, in terms of what happened after Katrina, rates one up. And actually, it, the hurricane experience in Florida has been better than any period since than before 1850 that we have any records on. That's been a surprise to us, incidentally, but we have not written business, catastrophe business in Florida during that period because we didn't think the rates were adequate. They were adequate. We just were wrong about it. So the, and incidentally, that is not. But the fact that we walked away from cat business in Florida that we thought was mispriced has not hurt us in the business. It's really a, it's much more of a transactional business. And there may have been a time when relationships were very big in reinsurance, but with so many entrants in it, it is very much a transactional business. And no one expects you to do something that's very stupid.
[2:43:20]
QuestionerAnd, you know, if they do that, that's the wrong kind of a relationship. I'm glad to hear the next speaker. Hello, Mr. Buffett. My name is Jane Cleb. I run a group called Bulls, Nebraska, which was part of an unlikely alliance who beat Keystone XL to protect the aquifer in our state as well as property rights. And I met you several years ago at Senator Nelson's home, and I had pulled you aside and asked, how could we get health care reform passed? And you told me two things. You said, the poll. numbers matter and that we have to keep on applying public pressure. And we feel the same way about climate change and climate action. The most recent Yale study said that even 47% of conservatives believe in climate change and want to start seeing corporate and government action. And your response to this resolution struck me because one of the sentences said that if you live in a low-lying area, you should probably move. Well, we work with native brothers and sisters who live in coastal communities, and one of those tribes is now the first United States climate refugees. They didn't have the option to move. They were forced to move. And so we're turning to you and we're turning to ourselves to continue to apply public pressure and hope that both you and Charlie stand with us. And maybe it's not this year and maybe it's not the year after. But we really look forward to you doing full climate risk analysis, as well as divesting from all the fossil fuels that you own. And lastly, it takes both small and mighty, as well as big and powerful, to solve this problem of climate change. So you blocking small solar in Nevada is the wrong road to go down. Thank you.
WarrenOkay. I think you'll have a reasonable time to move, but I would say if you're making a 50-year investment in low-lying property, it's probably a mistake. I actually said you may. in a low-lying area you may wish to consider moving. And I would say that if you expect to be there for 10 years or so, I don't think I would consider moving, but if I thought I was making a 100-year investment, I don't think I would make it. And I think it gets to the question, we have a shareholder proposal that says, what are the risks to the insurance division from climate change? We're not denying climate change is incredibly important subject. We're not denying its existence, but it will not hurt our insurance business, and it's immaterial compared to other things that couldn't affect our insurance business.
[2:46:11]
QuestionerAnd, you know, that is the issue before the meeting. But I'll be glad to hear from the next speaker. Good afternoon, Mr. Buffett. My name is Kay Karn. I've been a shareholder for more than a decade, basically my investing life. Today, someone said that you think ahead of the crowd. With regards to this resolution, you're saying that the Berkshire insurance business will just raise rates the next time the policy is renewed, and that makes sense. But you agree that climate change poses a major problem for our planet. I would say that climate change poses a major problem for the stability of our global financial markets if the political action continues at its' current pace with regards to this issue. I personally agree with Dr. Hansen that a carbon fee is the solution to address this issue. I'm wondering if you can tell us what you think the solution to address this issue is and whether you think the Berkshire businesses more broadly than just insurance will be impacted by this issue in the next decade or two.
WarrenYeah, I would doubt if it's affected in the next decade or two, but I would doubt if it's affected in the next decade or two, I won't argue with you at all, but that it's likely, not certain, that unless various techniques are designed for reducing, well, for sequestration, different things of that sort that plenty of people will be working on, or unless the emissions greenhouse gas emissions are reduced significantly, that it's a terribly important problem for civilization and there have been other i mean they're certainly going to be very some very smart people working on ways to change the balance in some way either through less being released in the atmosphere or by by various uh techniques that might diminish the impact but no one here will deny that it's important i don't think it i don't think it will impact, I don't think it will impact in the serious way the climate or insurance, for that matter, in the next decade or two. But as I pointed out in the report, if you're dealing with something where there's a point of, you pass a point of no return, the time to do something isn't to wait to get 10 minutes away from the point of no return, so that there are policies, which we subscribe to very strongly in terms of renewables and that sort of thing. But I think there's also possibly within the scientific community that there will be solutions that are beyond my limited knowledge of physics to can conjure up myself.
[2:49:14]
WarrenBut there are a whole lot of people out there that are a lot smarter. And I think that a basic problem on the reduction, on the, if those things don't come to pass, is the fact that it's a planetary problem and it requires cooperation by very important countries. And I think President Obama has done a good, made a good start in working with leaders of other countries, but it can't be solved by the United States alone, as you know, better than I. I'd be glad to hear from the next speaker.
QuestionerHello, my name is Nancy Meyer, and I've been a shareholder for 15 years with my husband. We have great faith in our in Berkshire Hathaway, that's why we invested. So I'm just here to say that as a shareholder, I'd like to ask my fellow shareholders to consider the economic costs of climate change and urge Berkshire Hathaway to adopt this resolution to show leadership in the insurance industry. Thank you.
WarrenThank you, and I appreciate the fact you've been a shareholder and But I do think for reasons I've laid out, I don't really think that the resolution, I think the resolution is, in a sense, inapplicable to our insurance business. I mean, insurance, global climate, is not a risk to our insurance business. Maybe a risk to the planet over time, but that's a different thing. I mean, you can, we can adopt all kinds of resolutions about saying that, that obviously, nuclear proliferation is a threat to. the planet and you can say, well, then it's a threat to Berkshire. But in terms of being Berkshire specific, you know, you can read the resolution. And like I say, our answer with the G. Jane, it's probably the smartest person I know in insurance. And I have 99% of my net worth in Berkshire that's all destined to go to philanthropic institutions, and I'm not eager to see that disappear. And I do regard myself as the chief risk officer of Berkshire. And I worry about things that can hurt Berkshire, and I do not see it in our insurance division in relation to climate change. But thank you.
QuestionerGood afternoon, Mr. Buffett. I am Richard Miller in the Creightonthinth theology department here in Omaha, and I study and teach climate change and its social effects. I just wanted to make you aware that Berkshire is operating in within a larger economy, and that the most important climate analysis, economic analysis, from Nicholas Stern, indicates that on our current path, by the end of this century,
[2:52:23]
Questioner30% loss in global GDP is possible. The other issue is when we talk about doing something about climate change, doing something means to avoid major sea level rise, we need to reduce emissions globally, starting today, 7% per year. The only time we've ever reduced emissions over a 10-year period in a growing economy was in the 1990s in England, and we reduced them 1% per year. So we're talking about a completely different thing than present. President Obama's gradual move, and we need to do something. No, we need to do massive transformation immediately. And with your large global holdings, you are a world significant figure on this, not just about this particular shareholder resolution. Thank you for your time.
OtherThank you.
OtherIs that complete the speakers?
OtherSay that again?
OtherAre you the final speaker?
OtherAre you the final speaker?
OtherYes, I think those are all the speakers.
OtherOkay, well, thank you.
OtherCharlie, do you have anything you want to say?
CharlieWell, yes. We're in Omaha, which is considerably of a sea level. And we have no big economic interest in this subject in our insurance companies. We don't write much of that catastrophic insurance we used to write many years ago. So we're asked as a corporation to take a public stance on a very complicated issues. We've got crime in the city. We've got a hundred, we've got a thousand complicated issues that are very material to our civilization. And if we spent our time on the meeting, taking public stands on all of them, I think it would be quite counterproductive. And I don't like the fact that the people constantly present this issue never discuss any solution except reducing consumption of fossil fuels. So there are geoengineering possibilities that nobody's willing to talk. about and I think that's asinine. So put me down as not welcoming.
OtherYou know what? I have a political rally.
OtherThe motion is now ready to be acted upon. There are any shareholders voting in person? They should now mark their ballots on the motion and deliver their ballot to one of the meeting officials in the aisles.
OtherMs. Samick, when you are ready, you may give you a report.
OtherMy report is ready. The ballot of the proxy holders in response to proxies that were received through last Thursday evening cast 69,114 votes for the motion and 531,724 votes against the motion. As the number of votes against the motion exceeds a majority of the number of votes of all Class A and Class B shares properly cast on the matter,
[2:55:47]
Otheras well as all votes outstanding, the motion has failed. The certification required by Delaware law of the precise count of the vote, will be given to the Secretary to be placed with the minutes of this meeting. Thank you, Ms. Hammock. The proposal fails. Does anyone have any questions for our audit firm before we adjourned? If not, I recognize Mr. Scott to place a motion before the meeting.
OtherI move this meeting be adjourned.
OtherMr. Olson?
OtherAnd I second it.
OtherMotion adjourned has been made and seconded. We will vote by voice. Is there any discussion? If not, all in favor say aye. All opposed say no. The meeting is adjourned. Thank you.