[0:02]
WarrenThank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. I'm Warren. This is Charlie. He can hear, I can see. We work together. In just a couple of minutes, we'll move on to the questions and answers and follow the same procedures as in previous years. But first, there's just a couple of special introductions I'd like to make. And I'd like to start it off with John Landis. And do we have a spotlight that we can pick out John? John is the man that directed, conceived, et cetera, of the Floyd Mayweather fight. And John, as you know, directed coming to America, Animal House. And the one I particularly like is trading places. If you haven't seen trading places, by all means get it. As Dan Aykroyd and Eddie Murphy and Charlie's favorite Jamie Lee Curtis. And it's a truly great movie. It brought back Ralph Bellamy and Don Amici. Don Amici had disappeared. We got a light on, we got a light on John. Where's John? It should be right down here. We're going to fight it over here. Come on. You got it on? Well, John, thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Did all that. Now came to the meeting. We really appreciate it. The other person I want to say, have a special thanks for. is a young 30-year-old woman who has a one-and-a-half-year-old baby at home and manages to put on this whole event with the help of hundreds that come from our various companies. And that's Carrie Sova. I hope Carrie is here that we can give her a thanks. Carrie, a few months ago, while she was already working on this meeting, I said to Kerry, I think it would be kind of nice if we had a commemorative book. commemorative book, sort of a retrospective on the 50 years. And I said, would you mind turning out a book in your spare time during these couple months while you're putting together the meeting? And she put together what I think is absolutely terrific book, which we have outside. We printed up, we thought we printed 15,000 copies, but I think there are not quite that many. We sold 5,000 yesterday and then held back copies. But it's really a nice history of Berkshire Hathaway. and the credit 100% goes to Kerry for putting that together. So I'd just like to thank her personally, and I hope you'll thank her. Well, we'll have the annual meeting at 3.30, and at that time, we will be voting on directors, but many of you won't be here at that time, although we'll have a full house in here. I should mention all of the overflow rooms here at the CenturyLink are full now.
[3:46]
OtherThere may be seats, we've got the grand ballroom and the second ballroom over at the Hilton, and there may be some seats left over at the Hilton. So if you can't find a seat here at the Century Link, either here in the overflow rooms, at least give it a try over there at the Hilton. We've got all the rooms we could possibly get. But I think the attendants may have outrun the seats this time. I'd like to introduce the directors, and like I say, you'll vote on them at a little after 3.30. And if they'll stand and we'll get a light down here and withhold your applause until the end, and you can withhold it then if you would like. And we'll do this alphabetically. You've met Charlie, of course, but we'll start with Howard Buffett. Steve Burke. Decker, Bill Gates, Sandy Goddessman, Charlotte Geiman, Tom Murphy, Ron Olson, Walter Scott, and Merrill Whitmer. A very great bunch of directors. And we're missing one of our great directors, Don Keough, my neighbor from over 55 years ago. He was a coffee salesman then for butternut coffee for those of you around Omaha. He broadcasts Nebraska football. games and around 1950 had a radio show on W.O.W. For 15 minutes, he was followed by a fellow named Johnny Carson, who had another 15-minute program. And Don, when I would see him in later years, he'd always say, what happened to that Carson fellow? And Don, Don, Don died a few weeks ago, but we are very grateful that his Mike Keough has joined us together, so let's have a hand from Mickey Keough. Mickey, will you stand? Mickey practically raised our kids, so if they have any faults, you know, talk to Mickey about it. Okay, we have just one slide that relates to our quarterly earnings that we could put up. We released these yesterday afternoon, and nothing particularly remarkable. The The railroad BNSF did dramatically better last year, not only in earnings, but in all kinds of performance measures, in terms of train velocity and on time and you name it. So that the, you know, we got behind last year early in the year, and there's been lots of money and more important, lots of effort spent to get the railroad operating like it should be. And in the first quarter, those efforts paid off. We gained share. Our earnings relative to other railroads improved dramatically. So, you know, we've got the trains running. We're spent a lot of money making sure we get even better. But the improvement has been huge, and I want to thank Matt Rose and Carl, Carl, for really
[7:36]
Warrenextraordinary performance in having our railroad running the way it should be running. Thanks, Matt, and Carl. I didn't quite get it, but I'll assume it was complimentary. Okay. I think we're ready. We're ready to move on to our questioners. We'll handle it the same as before. We start with the journalists. We move to the analysts, and then we move to the audience. And we keep doing that until about noon. And at that time, we take a break for about an hour. and then we come back and we repeat the procedure. After we get through a, I think it's either 48 or 54 questions, then we just take them all from the audience. We have various zones where people have been selected by drawing to ask questions personally. But we start off the first one with a woman who retired after 60 years setting a longevity record for all of Time, Inc. at, she retired at Fortune, been my friend for many years, and my opinion, the best print business journalists in the world, Carol Loomis. That doesn't soften her up at all, folks. I'll make my customary very short speech. The three of us have been getting questions for two months, and there have been a lot of them. Warren and Charlie have no idea what our questions are going to be. And some of them are very tough. Warren is right that I don't normally soften them up. And we're sorry, we've got hundreds of questions, literally, many hundreds. And we're sorry if we didn't pick yours, which doesn't mean it wasn't a good question. It's just that our ability to ask as many as you'd like as you would like to get yours in was limited. So my first question is from a man in, who happens to have a familiar name, Frank Gifford, but wants to make it clear that he isn't the football, Frank Gifford, but rather a travel photographer. And his question is a hard one. He says, I've been a shareholder for 15 years, but I'm now suffering heartburn. Until recently, I considered Berkshire an ethical company benefiting society through, and here he was a And here he mentions two Berkshire companies headquartered in his home state. He says through BNSF and Acme Brick. Two points call that opinion into question now. One is the Seattle Times story on predatory practices at our Clayton home subsidiary. Clayton mainly responded with platitudes to this article and would not answer questions. So I have to assume the facts and story are correct. The other point that I want to
[10:59]
Questionermention is our growing partnership with 3G capital. I sold my Tim Horton stock in disgust before 3G gutted 20% of the corporate staff and plunge this well-run company deep into junk territory. Other takeovers 3G has made still or have been still more brutal. You and Charlie have made many statements about upholding Berkshire's reputation, and you have avoided antisocial investments like tobacco and gambling. Your efforts years ago to keep Berkshire's textal mails running show he once aspired to balance capitalism with compassion. I cannot make the moral case for practices at either Clayton or 3G, and I wonder how you can do so.
WarrenOkay, let's talk first about the Clayton article because there were some important mistakes in that. But I think it's better to back up even to... the situation in mortgage lending that's taken place and why Clayton follows a pattern that actually is exemplary and rather extraordinary in the home building and mortgage business. If you look back at the housing bubble in 2000, well, ending more or less in 2008, one of the great problems, in fact, maybe the greatest cause, cause was the fact that the mortgage holder became totally divorced from the mortgage originator and from the home builder. In other words, the home builder built a house and sold it, took his profit, and that was that, and it didn't really make much difference who he sold it to. And the mortgage originator would originate a mortgage, but then package those, securitize them, and often sell them around, even around the, even around the world. So people thousands and thousands of miles had no connection with the original transaction. And the mortgage originator suffered no loss if the loan went bad. So he had these two parties, the one that connected with the home buyer and the one that originated the mortgage and they had no connection with the actual outcome of whether it was a good mortgage or not. At Clayton, unlike virtually anybody, there's a few. We offer the, we offer mortgages to all the buyers of our homes. And we have retained roughly 12 billion of mortgages on 300,000 homes. Now, when a mortgage, when a mortgage goes bad, two people will lose. The person that owns the house loses and the person that owns the mortgage loses. And in our case, we have this identity of interest. We have a We have no interest in selling anybody a house and having the mortgage default.
[14:03]
WarrenBecause it is a net loss to us, it's a net loss to the customer. And like I say, that's not true of most home builders. It's not true of most mortgage originators. So you, and there's been much talk in terms of possible changes in mortgage rules to try and get the mortgage originator to keep some skin in the game. And they've talked about them to keep retaining maybe 3% of the mortgage or something like that, just so they would have an interest. And really what kind of a mortgage they were putting on the books. Well, we keep, in many cases, we offer to everybody, but we keep probably in half the cases, we keep 100% of the mortgage. So we have exactly the same interest as society has and as the home buyer has in not making mortgage loans to people who are going to get in trouble on those loans. Now, it's true that manufactured housing hits the lower end of the market in terms of house values, of the homes selling for $150,000, new homes selling for $150,000 or less, 70% of them are manufactured in houses. And some of those people, most, many of those people, do not qualify on a FICO score to obtain loans that are government guaranteed. Some do, but most don't. And the question is, can you, can you lend intelligence? the people will have a good chance of making the payments and keeping that house. And Clayton has been exemplary in doing that. About 3% of the mortgages default in the year. And when they do, we lose money and the person who bought the house loses money. But 97% don't, and most of those people would not be living in the kind of houses that you can see right here. at the auditorium without the financing availability that Clayton makes available and others make available. And I invite you to go out and look at that house for $69,500. That house will be transported and erected, ready to go, you have to have the land, and I'll get to that second. But for 69,500, you have that house with appliances, with air conditioning, with a couple bedrooms, 1,200 square feet, and probably you'll put another $25,000 or so in the house, but in terms of the land and preparation there. So maybe it'll be $95,000, but I just, you know, you can make your own judgment as to whether that's a decent value. And I know most of you are not living in $95,000 homes, but there are an awful lot of people that aspire to do that. And we help them very, with our own money at risk, to move into those homes.
[17:08]
WarrenAnd if we make a mistake, it hurts them, and it hurts us. And that is a very unusual arrangement in the financial industry. Now, I read that story, and in it, there was an item in it, which, reading through the story I just knew wasn't true. I mean, nobody that knew anything about manufactured housing could have put that up. But I'd like to put that up on the slide where it says another Clayton executive said it a 2012 affidavit that the average profit margin on Clayton homes sold in Arkansas between 2006 and 2009 was 11,070, roughly one-fifth of the average sales price of the homes. So this fellow is quoting somebody of saying that we're making a 20% profit. on home sales. Well, I knew that that was nonsense. So I asked for the affidavit. And I read the affidavit about three times, and nowhere in that affidavit was a statement made. Now, what was said was what I'd show in the next slide. It's hard for me to see what's up there, but it should show Adam 6, where it says Clayton, manufactured homes sold 2,201 homes. And item 7, that 4% of the gross profit from the home sales total 983,000. So if we'll move to the next slide, I did a little arithmetic. And sure enough, if you take 25 times the commission, the commission was 4%, so you take 25 times, and then you divide by the number of homes, you come up with 11, 170. But that statement in the affidavit said gross profit. And gross profit is not the same thing as profit. I'm not sure that the fellow that wrote the story understood that. So I have put on the next page the difference, for example, of a couple other retailers. I've put Macy's in Target. And Macy's has a 40% gross profit margin, but a pre-tax margin of 8.5% after tax of 5% and 4. Gross profit is what you, if it's the case of Macy's, what they pay for a soap or something, and what they sell it for. But they also have the expenses of paying salespeople, rent, utilities, advertising, all kinds of other things. So the idea that gross profit and net profit are the same thing is, you know, anybody that understands accounting would never make a mistake like that. In our particular case, on the next page, our gross margin is what the fellow said in the affidavit. And he used the word gross of 20%. But the writer of the story terms. that into a profit margin and our profit margin is actually 3%, so I just like to point out the mathematics on that particular subject. There's one other item you should see, and again,
[20:19]
WarrenI have trouble seeing what's up there. But we have a, in every retail Clayton establishment, we have a lender board which shows exactly what a variety of lenders are willing to do and in terms and what their terms are and we also have a sheet which I think will be put up there and it's it's it's less than a full page and it sets out the lenders who are available and at the very top I'm just looking to see whether I can find that right here. At the very top of it, it basically says, you know, check out more than one letter, and you can send the application to any of these people, and we have people sign at the bottom, and there's no small print on it. I can't see it here, but it may look like small print. But it's one page, and multiple lenders are put on that sheet. Sometimes people borrow, there's a credit union in San Antonio is very big. The local bank is very big. And we also will lend money to the buyer of the home if they wish. If you buy that home that's out there, we'll give you a list of four or five lenders, probably including your local bank, and you will probably take the loan that offers you the best terms. So I make no apologies whatsoever about Clayton's lending terms. I get letters from people complaining about our subsidiaries in various ways. I mean, some people call to the office, some people write in. I can say in the last three years I have not received one call. We've got 300,000 loans. I have not received one call from any party in connection with a Clayton home. Moreover, we are, at Clayton, we are regulated in almost every state, every state in which we have financing, which is practically every state. And in the last three years, we have had, I think, I think it's 91 examinations by the state. Ninety-one examinations, they come in, they look at our practices, they make sure that they conform with the laws. And in those 91, I think the largest fine we've had has been $5,500. And the largest group of refunds we had was about $110,000. dollars. Yeah, there were, and, you know, those were regulated, not only by those, those states were regulated by HUD, all kinds of people. When we can, we try to get people in FHA loan because that's the best loan for them to get. But as I say, most of our, most of our borrowers are below the 620 FICO score. And, and it's true that 3% or so will lose their homes in a year. It's true that 97% of those people will have a home
[23:38]
Warrenwhere their average principal and interest payment is a little under $600 a month. And that takes care of having a two- and perhaps three-bedroom house well-equipped. I invite you to go through it. And Clayton has behaved in my book extraordinarily well. The article talked about 30-year mortgages. Over four and a half years ago, I said we're not going to have 30-year mortgages. So we don't have them except for the FHA guaranteed which, of course, have a very low rate. So I have no, I'm proud of the Clayton Management. I'm proud of the fact that they put this year maybe 30,000 people in homes at a very low cost, a very good home, and a very high percentage of those people are going to have those loans paid off. probably in 20 years and have a home that has cost them, it's been a real bargain, basically. I'll get to the other question, the 3G question, to the second, and I'll give Charlie a chance to say what he'd like to.
CharlieWell, I don't know a lot about the mortgage practices with Clayton, but I certainly know that we've sold an enormous number of houses, and we have a big share of the total market in manufactured. About 50%. Yeah, 50%. And it's a big share of a number of houses. very constructive thing. Personally, I've always wondered why manufacturing houses don't have a bigger share of the market. It's such an efficient way of creating quite usable houses. Part of the reason is that the track builders under capitalism got so efficient. And isn't Clayton now doing some track building itself? Yeah. I think so, yes. So, Clayton is a very productive part of the economy, but we can't make lending to poor people who buy houses. is 100% successful for everybody. It would be running the business right if the foreclosure rate was zero. Too many people would deserve credit that wouldn't get it.
WarrenYeah, the big causes of default are the loss of a job, death and divorce. And, you know, that happens with high-priced houses as well, but it happens more often. it happens more often up with people that are living closer to the edge. But I don't think that's a reason to deny them a house, and particularly when so many, it turns out so well for so many. The 2008 recession was, and nine, was very interesting because all kinds of securitized deals involving houses costing hundreds and hundreds of thousands of dollars, the default rate on those was many, many, many times what happened in our own case.
[26:37]
WarrenAnd similarly with delinquency rates, our delinquency rates are running about 3% currently. And, you know, the people want to live in those houses, and I think they deserve the right to. Incidentally, we had a few years ago, we had a couple of houses here, we called them the Warren and the Charlie. The Charlie sold first, and it sold to one of the cameramen who was in the credits on the movie you just saw. and you can check with Matt and he's Matt Mason. He is very, very happy with that house he bought four or five years ago. The second question was about 3G and I don't think you can ever find a statement that Charlie and I have ever made in terms of Berkshire companies or anybody else is where we said that there should be more people working than are needed in a company. And the 3G people have been successful. in building marvelous businesses. And it is true that they have entered into some purchases where there were considerably more people running the business than needed. And the interesting thing is that after they reduced the head count to the number needed, the companies have done extremely well. I mean, you've seen Burger King outgrow its main competitor by a number by a significant margin. You've seen Tim Horton have some very good figures in the first quarter. And I don't know of any company that has a policy that says we're going to have a lot more people than we need. But a good many companies end up in that position, and the 3G buys into one they quite promptly and treat people well in terms of the severance, but they get it down to what they need. And I hope our Berkshire companies are not being run with more people than they need either. They usually aren't when we buy them. And, you know, we look for those kind of companies that are well managed. 3G is will, if they find out that 100 people are doing what 50 people can do, they'll get it to where 50 people are doing it. And I think that actually makes sense throughout American business, Charlie.
CharlieWell, the alternate to the system of having your company right-sized the right number of people is what eventually happened in Russia. And there, everybody had a job. And the way it all worked out was some workers said, well, they pretend to pay us and we pretend to work. And the whole damn economy didn't work. Of course, we want the right number of people in the jobs. It's interesting in the railroad business.
[29:26]
WarrenIn the railroad business, after World War II in 1947 or thereabouts, I think there were about 1.6 million people in the railroad business, and it was a lousy business. And capital was short for any kind of improvements. And now there are less than 200,000. So they've gone from a million six to less than 200,000, carrying more freight, more distance, and doing it in far safer conditions. Safety has improved dramatically in the railroad industry. If somebody thinks it would be better to be running the railroads with a million six, you know, people doing it, you would have a terrible railroad system. You wouldn't have anything like you have today. Efficiency is required over time in capitalism. And I really tip my hat to what the 3G people have done.
OtherOkay, Johnny Brandt.
QuestionerThank you, Warren, for inviting me to be part of this 50th anniversary celebration. I have a question about Vantile. Vantile is a fabulously productive auto dealer that has, since its founding, used a traditional negotiated model with a particular successful emphasis on profitable add-on insurance and financial products. Meanwhile, at least some other auto dealers, CarMax and Don Flo among them, have adopted or are moving towards models which emphasize fixed prices, transparency, and low sales pressure. Given the evolving regular regulatory environment and changing consumer preferences, will Van Tile eventually need to adapt to this new mode of selling, or do you feel the traditional method of selling cars will be viable for decades into the future? If the market requires a new way of selling, how hard is it for a sales culture that has been successful for decades doing business one way to change to another?
WarrenYeah, if a change is required, it will be made. And I don't know the answers to which way it's going to go on that. The, it's true that people are been, and that's not new, it's been experimented with before, where people have tried a one-price system and no negotiating, no haggling and everything. And I think a very large number of people would like to see that system, except when they actually get into it, it seems to break down for some, some reason. There's negotiation going on in a lot of businesses that, and it always amazes me. People say they don't like it, but it's what ends up happening. And so, Van Tile will adapt to what the customer wants. We'll see how some of these experiments go, and I don't think there'd be any problem at all
[32:20]
Warrenif the world goes in that direction in Van Tile going to it. But I wouldn't be surprised if five or ten years from now, the system is pretty much the same. I wouldn't be totally surprised if it changes either. But I can't predict the outcome. I can predict that Bantile and the subsequent auto dealerships we buy, I can predict that they will be a very important part of Berkshire and I think will be quite profitable in relation to the capital we employ in the business.
WarrenCharlie?
CharlieWell, I very much like that acquisition, partly, because I think we can do a lot more like it.
QuestionerYeah. I, you think you'll be negotiating on cars 10 years from now? Can you buy a new one?
CharlieIt's been amazingly resistant to change for my whole lifetime.
QuestionerYeah. Happens in the jewelry business, too. I mean, there are certain items.
WarrenWell, it happens in real estate. I mean, let's just say that some real estate firms said we're only going to take listings where you can't negotiate. And you think, I'm not sure how it would do in terms of obtaining both listings and customers that people seem to want to negotiate. If they hear a house is priced at $200,000, they're not going, unless it's in some unusual. usual situation, they're not going to step right up and pay the 200. They're going to bid. When people are dealing with a big ticket item, a lot of people, their natural tendencies to negotiate, and particularly will do so if they think that that's built into the system. So I'm not sure how it changes. But we'll do fine whatever direction it goes.
OtherOkay, now we go to the shareholder at Station 1.
QuestionerHi, Warren. Hi, Charlie. Great to be here. And this is my first time here. my first time here, incredibly lucky to have my question answered. So my question is the, can you name at least five characteristics of a company that gives you confidence to predict its earnings 10 years out in the future? And can you also use IBM as a case study, how it checked all those boxes? all those boxes.
QuestionerCharlie, what are you five?
WarrenWe don't have a one-size-fits-all system for buying businesses. They're all different. Every industry is different. And we also keep learning. So what we did 10 years ago, we hopefully are doing better now. But we can't give you a formula that will help you. Now, if you're looking at the BNSF railroad, as we were in, as we were in 2009, or if you're looking at Vantile in 2014, there are a lot of things that go through our minds.
[35:16]
WarrenAnd most of the things that go through our minds are things that will stop us from going further. I mean, there's, the filters are there, and there are a lot of things that, if we see it in a business, including maybe who we're dealing with, will stop us from going on to the next layer. And, but it's very, it's very very, It's very different in different businesses. We are looking for things where we do think we've got some reasonable fix on how it's going to look in five or ten years, and that does eliminate a great many businesses. But it's not the same, not the same five questions at all. Certainly, when we're buying a business where we're going to have somebody that's selling it to us continue to run it for us. You know, a very big question is, you know, do we really want to be in part? with this person and count on them to behave in the future when they don't own the business as they behave in the past when they do own the business. And that stops a fair number of deals. But I can't give you a five. We don't have a list of five. If we do, Charlie's kept it from me. Do you want anything more? Becky?
Becky QuickThis question is for Charlie. It comes from John Baylor. He says, Charlie, you broke Warren of his cigar. Warren of his cigar but buying habits. With the significant innovation that is occurring in technology, is IBM similar to those textile mills in the 1960s? And did you try to talk Warren out of buying IBM?
CharlieThe answer is no. I think IBM is a very interesting company. It totally dominated hollow earth machines, you know the punch card computing. And then when they invented electronic computing, it dominated that. It dominated that for a while. It's very rare that when technological change comes along, that people adapt as successfully as IBM did that time. Well, now they've had the personal computer, and that's been a mixed bag. And, but I think IBM is a very creditable company. And we own a lot of companies that have temporary reverses or ones who are mightier in some ways than they are now. they are now. IBM is still an enormous enterprise. And I think it's still a very admirable enterprise. And I think we bought it at a reasonable price. When we bought it, it was a two to nothing boat. Yeah. Okay. Incidentally, it's one thing I always find interesting, we get asked questions about investments we own we own and people think we want to talk them up. want to talk them up, you know, or we have no interest in encouraging other people to buy
[38:22]
Warrenwhat, the investments we own. I mean, we are better off because either we or the company is likely to be buying stock in the future. Why would we want the stock to go up if we're going to be a buyer next year, and the year after, and the year after that? But the whole mentality of Wall Street is that if you buy something, even if you're going to buy more of it later or if the company is going to buy a zone stock and the people seem to think that they're better off if it goes up the next day or the next week or the next month. And that's why they talk about talking your book. If we talk to our book from our standpoint, we would say pessimistic things about all four of the biggest holdings we have because all four of them are repurchasing their shares and obviously the cheaper they repurchase their shares, the better off we are. But people don't seem to get that point. Do you have any idea why, Charlie?
CharlieWarren, if people weren't so often wrong, we wouldn't be so rich.
WarrenHe's finally explained it to me. Okay. Gary?
QuestionerThank you. In his letter, Charlie talked about Berkshire's insurance success, quote, being so astoundingly large that I believe that Buffett would now fail to recreate it if he returned to a small base while retaining his smarts and regaining his youth. Do you agree that you could not repeat that success today? And if so, what do you think are the conditions in the insurance industry today that would inhibit a repeat of that performance?
WarrenWell, I had many, many, many pieces of luck, but I had three extraordinary pieces of luck in terms of the insurance business. One was, when I was 20 years old, having a fellow on a Saturday, a fellow named, a fellow named Lorimer Davidson be willing to spend four hours with some 20-year-old kid who he never heard of before, explain the insurance business to him. So I received an education at age 20 that was, I couldn't have gotten at any business school in the United States. And that was just pure luck. I mean, I just happened to go to Washington. I had no idea I would run into him. I had no idea whether he would talk to me, and he spent four hours with me. So just chalk that one up. The chances of that happening again. In 1967, I got lucky again when Jack Ringwald, who for about five minutes every year, wanted to sell his company because he would get mad about something. Some claim would come in that he didn't like or something of the store.
[41:15]
WarrenAnd I told my friend Charlie Haider, I said, next time Jack is in the mood, be sure and get him to my office. And Charlie got him up there one day, and we bought National Indemnity. We couldn't have done that. We not only couldn't have done that a day later, we couldn't have done it an hour later. But it just, you know, and that, that was lucky. And then I really got lucky in the mid-80s when, on a Saturday, some guy came in the office. And he said, I've never worked in the insurance business, but maybe I can do you some good, and that was a G-Jane. And, you know, how lucky can you get? So it asked me whether we could pull off a trifecta like that again. In the future, I'd say the odds are very much against it. But the whole thing in businesses is being open to ideas as they come along. And insurance happened to be something that I could understand. I mean, that was in my sweet spot. If Lorimer Davidson had talked to me about some other business, you know, it wouldn't have done any good. But it just so happened he hit a chord with me on that and explaining it. I could understand what he was talking about. And I could understand what national indemnity was when Jack had it for sale. And that's, there's an awful lot of accident in life. But if you keep yourself open to having good accidents happen and kind of get past the bad accidents, you know, some good things will happen. Might not happen in insurance, you know, can happen in some other field, probably would happen in some other field if you were to start in today. So, no, we could not have, you couldn't expect to have three lucky events like that happen, and there were many more along the way. But, you know, we'd have, I think if we were starting over again, we'd find something else to do. What about it, Charlie?
CharlieYeah, but I don't think we would have that kind of success. You know, mostly we've bought wonderful businesses and nourished them, but the reinsurance division was just created out of the whole cloth right. here in Omaha. And it's a huge business. Insurance has been different for us.
OtherOkay, station two. And if you'll say where you're from, too, too, please.
QuestionerDear Warren, dear Charlie, I'm Lawrence from Germany, and in my home country, you two are regarded as role models for integrity, and at Berkshire, its culture is its most important competitive edge. Hence my question, how can we? as outside investors judge the state of Berkshire's culture long after you departed from the company.
[44:08]
WarrenYeah, well, I think it's fair that you do, you know, come with a questioning mind to the culture, both me and Charlie. But I think you're going to be very, you don't think you should be surprised, but I think you will be very pleased with the outcome. The culture, I think Berkshire's culture runs as deep as any large company could be in the world. It's interesting here from Germany because just three or four days ago, we closed on a transaction with a woman named Mrs. Louis in Germany. And she and her husband had built a business over 35 years. They'd spent developing this business of retail shops dealing with motorcycle owners and lovingly had built this business. Her husband died a couple years ago and Mrs. Louis in Germany, it came about in sort of a roundabout way, but she wanted to sell the Berkshire Hathaway. And, you know, that would not have been the case 30 or 40 years ago. So it does, it's a vital part. of Berkshire to have a clearly defined, deeply embedded culture that pervades the parent company, the subsidiary companies. It's even reflected in our shareholders. And, you know, when you have 97% of the shareholders vote and say we don't want a dividend, I don't think there's another company like that in the world. So we have a, it, our directors sign on for it, and there again, we behave consistently. Instead of having a bunch of directors who are loved to be a director because I'd like to get two or three hundred thousand dollars a year for showing up four times a year, we have directors who look at it as a great opportunity for stewardship and who want their ownership and have their ownership represented by buying stock in the market exactly like you do. So we try to make clear and define that culture in every way possible, and it's gotten reinforced over the years. to an extreme degree. People who join us believe in it. People who shun us don't believe in it. So we, it's self-reinforcing. And I think it's, I think it's a virtual certainty to continue and to become even stronger. Because once Charlie and I aren't around, it will be so clear that it's not the force of personality, but it's the, it's institutionalized that, you know, nobody will doubt that it will really continue for decades. and decades and decades to come. Charlie?
CharlieWell, as I've said in the annual report, I think Berkshire is going to do fine after we're gone. In fact, it'll do a lot better in dollars.
[47:13]
WarrenBut percentage-wise, it will never gain at the rate we did in the early years. And that's all right. There's the worst tragedies in life than having Berkshire's assets and have the growth rate slow a little. Name one. And I have one not very far ahead.
OtherOkay.
OtherOkay. Andrew?
WarrenI should say that culture is everything at Berkshire. And if you run into a terrible culture, the terrible culture, the Solomon thing was up there on the screen, and it would be hard to turn Solomon into a Berkshire. I don't think we could have done anything, Charlie. I don't think anybody's ever done without Wall Street. No. It's a different world, you know. And that doesn't mean that Berkshire is a monastery by any means. But it does mean that I can guarantee you that Charlie and I and a great, great many of our managers are more concerned. And Kerry Sova, who put this meeting together and everything, they are more concerned about getting a good job done for Berkshire than what they get out of it themselves. And it's great. to work around people like that.
OtherAndrew?
Andrew Ross SorkinOkay, Warren. This question comes from Simone Wallace in New York, New York. And she writes, over the last 50 years, we Berkshire shareholders have effectively been long sugar consumption through directly owned companies such as Seas Candies, Gary Queen, in funding Heinz and in publicly traded investments such as Coca-Cola today. Yet from improvements in scientific research, we as a society have become increasingly attuned to the true cost of greater sugar consumption in the form of rising health care costs. We are seeing this awareness of sugar's impact in changing consumer behavior. Carbonated soft drink volumes are declining and consumer package good companies focused on the center aisles of supermarkets are struggling with organic growth. If we have reached an inflection point in human behavior in how consumers view sugar consumption and do you think Coca-Cola's moat and potentially that of Heinz or Crafts is narrowing? And if not, what news would it take you? to be convinced that it is.
WarrenWell, I think it's an enormously wide moat, but I think it's also true that the trends you described are happening. But, you know, there will be 1.9 billion 8-ounce servings of Coca-Cola products, not Coca-Cola, but Coca-Cola products consumed in the world today. And I don't think you're going to see anything revolutionary, and I don't think you're going to see anything revolutionary.
[50:04]
WarrenAnd I think you will see all food and beverage companies adjust to the expressed preferences of the consumers as they go along. No company ever does well, ignoring its consumers. But there will be, I would predict 20 years from now, there will be more people. There will be more Coca-Cola cases consumed than there are now by some margin. Back in the late 1930s, Fortune ran an article saying that the growth of Coca-Cola was all over. And when we bought our Coca-Cola stock in 1988, you know, people were not that enthused about gross possibilities for the product. I sit here as somebody who, in the last year, 30 years, one quarter of all the calories I've consumed come from Coca-Cola. And that is not an exaggeration. I am one-quarter of Coca-Cola. I'm not sure which quarter, but, you know, if you really, I don't think there is this choice. I think there's a lot to be said about being happy with what you're doing. If I've been eating broccoli and Brussels sprouts and all that all my life, I don't think I'd live as long. You know, every meal I would approach thinking, you know, it's like going to eat. jail or something and now I think I think Charlie Charlie's 91 and his habits aren't that different than mine either slightly better but there's no question about it the way I look at it is sugar is an enormously helpful substance it prevents premature softening of the arteries and and the way I look at it is that if I die a little sooner, they'll just be avoiding a few months of drilling in a nursing home. Charlie and I have enjoyed every meal we've ever had virtually, except when I was eating my grandfathers and he may eat those damn green vegetables. But there obviously are some shifts in preferences, although it's remarkable how durable items are in this field. We, Berkshire Hathaway, I believe, was the largest shareholder of general foods from about 1981 or thereabouts to about 1984 when it was bought by Philip Morris. And, you know, that's 30 plus years ago. And those same, those same brands, you know, they went through Philip Morris, they got spun out of craft, they broke craft into two pieces, but now we're going to own those brands. brands and they are they're terrific brands but um you know hines hines goes back to 1869 the ketchup came out a little later they went they went bankrupt actually when they were counting on the horseradish or whatever was but but the but the
[53:42]
Warrenketchup came out in 1870s and Coca-Cola dates to 1886 and it's a pretty good bet that an awful lot of people are going to like the same thing I'm when I compare drinking Coca-Cola, you know, to something that somebody would sell me at Whole Foods. I don't know, I don't see smiles on the faces of people at Whole Foods. So I like the brands we're buying.
Andrew Ross SorkinAndrew. Okay. Greg Warren. Thank you, Warren. I just wanted to circle back and add on the Jonathan's question on Bantuil Group. What is it that attracted you to the deal, the potential for consolidation in a highly fragmented industry, which would allow you to put some of your excess capital to work, or the unique position in the auto chain of the auto dealer sector, which has its hands not only in auto sales, but financing insurance and parts of the services. I know that Charlie just said that he'd like to do more deals like it, but where do you feel the greatest return will come from longer term, rolling up auto dealerships or tapping into the advantages that are inherent in the full service model?
WarrenYeah, there are not any huge advantages of scale, at least that I'm aware of, in owning lots of dealerships. But running dealerships well is a very good business. It's a local business. So I don't see that having some, there's 17,000 dealers in the country. And if you ask the people here in Omaha to name a bunch of dealers, they'd come up with a bunch of local names. And I don't think that you widened profit margins, particularly by having a thousand dealers versus having 100 or even having one very good dealer. So we will be buying, I hope, more dealerships, but it will be based on local considerations. We don't see the finance business in dealers. We don't bring anything to that party. John Sump is here from Wells Fargo. I think they're the biggest auto-financial company in the United States. And they have a cost of funds advantage over Berkshire. Berkshire is able to borrow money at a low price, but I forget whether John's liabilities cost them something like 12 basis points or something like that last quarter. And we can't come up with money as cheap as the banks can. And they're the natural lenders. So we're not going to be in the finance business. will keep looking for dealerships, maybe groups of dealers. It doesn't give us a buying advantage from the manufacturer. And we will hope that we run those local operations very well
[56:50]
Warrenand that they're regarded by the people who buy cars as a local business, not some part of some giant operations. So I think you'll see us buying more, but I don't think you'll see us widening out margins from what existed before, except in the cases where we can run a local dealer better.
WarrenCharlie?
CharlieWell, yes, and Van Tile has a system of meritocracy where the right people get the power and get some ownership and so on. It reminds me a lot of the Kiwit company, an Omaha company, in whose headquarters Berkshire resides as a tenant. And the Van Tile and Keywood are kissing cousins. Those are very successful cultures, and I think they've got a very good thing going for them. The right people are prospering in Ventile.
OtherOkay, Station 9, and if you'll identify where you're from, please.
QuestionerOh, I'm sorry. Station 3, your number 9. I apologize.
OtherApology accepted. We'd have cut off your mic if you hadn't.
QuestionerFair enough. My name is Stuart K. And I'm from Stanford, Connecticut. And I wanted to follow up on the questions that have been asked about culture and stewardship at Berkshire Hathaway. Because I'm currently in Year 5 of helping build a firm called Materan Capital Management. And we discuss values and culture quite a bit. And so I'd like some tip from you about what characteristics you thought about 45 years ago when you were building the culture and values at Berkshire Hathaway.
WarrenYeah, well, I think culture has to come from the top. It has to be consistent. It has to be part of written communications. It has to be, you know, it has to be lived and it has to be rewarded when followed and punished when not. And then it takes a very, very long time. to really become solid. And obviously, it's easier, much easier to do it if you inherit a culture you like. And it's easier in smaller firms, I think. I can think of a lot of companies, very big companies in this country, and I don't think if Charlie and I were around them for 10 years, we'd be able to accomplish much of anything. So it, you know, it is a grain of sand type of thing. And people, just like your, you know, you know, you know, it is a grain of sand type of thing. people just like your child, you know, sees what you do rather than what you say, it's the same thing in a business that people see how those above them behave. And they move in that direction. They don't all move that way. We've got 340,000 people now working for Berkshire.
[1:00:13]
WarrenAnd I will guarantee you that there's, you know, some number, a dozen, maybe 50, maybe 100,000. that are doing something today that they shouldn't be doing. And, you know, we, what you have to do is when you find out about it, you have to do something about it. I didn't like, for example, making 30-year mortgages at Clayton five years ago, and I said, we're not going to make 30-year mortgages, you know, unless they're government guaranteed. And when we bought Kirby, there were some sales practices we didn't like, and we particularly didn't like them with older people. people so we put in a golden age policy where if you over 65 and you and you bought a Kirby and for any reason you didn't like it any time up to a year you could send it and get all of your money back and I encourage people to write me if they had a problem on anything like it. So it takes a lot of time. And you all, you know, at Geico we're going to, you know, we're going to send out millions and millions and millions of claims. And I will guarantee you that when two people are in an auto accident, they don't agree 100% of the time on whose fault it was. So they may go away and be unhappy for a time. But we work all the time at trying to behave with other people as if our positions were reversed. That's what Shirley's always advised in all our activities. And we've tried to follow it, and we're certainly far from perfect at it. But if you keep working at it, working at it, it does get results. Charlie?
CharlieYeah, I think the one thing that we did this work best of all is we were always dissatisfied with what we already knew and we always wanted to know more. And Berkshire, if Warren and I had stayed frozen in time, particularly Warren, it would have been a... I'd like to do it, understand. It would have been a terrible place. It's what we kept learning that made it work. And I don't think that will ever stop.
Carol LoomisCarol?
QuestionerThis question comes from Mona Diane. And it concerns two indicators, Warren, that you have discussed in the past about the general level of the stock market. The first one is the percentage of total market cap relative to the USGNP, which you have said is probably the best single measure of where stand at any given moment. This indicator is at about 125%. That is the ratio of total market cap to USGNP. And that's about what it was when Warren's talked about this back in 1999, just before the, not shortly before the bubble broke.
[1:03:16]
QuestionerThe second indicator, which you mentioned in a famous 1990, this 1999 speech that subsequently became an article in Fortune is the corporate profits, is corporate profits as percent of GNP. You had said at the time that that number ranged between 4% to 6.5% over a long period of time, which I believe was 1951 to 1999. Well, as a Friday, it is about 10.5% according to 10% percent according to the St. Louis Federal Reserve side. That is way above the range you had mentioned. Are the current levels of either one or both of these indicators a matter of concern for the General Investing Republic?
WarrenYeah. Well, it might be the second figure, which is the profits as a percentage of GDP, might be a concern for other segments of society because what it indicates is that American business has done wonderfully well in recent years and and though it says how, what a terrible disadvantage it has because of U.S. tax rates and a host of other things, you know, the facts are that American business has prospered incredibly. And the first comparison is a is very much affected by the fact that we live in an interest rate environment, which Charlie and I probably would have thought was almost impossible, not too many years ago. And obviously, profits are worth a whole lot more if the government bond yield is 1%, then they're worth if the government bond yield is 5%, is 5%. And so it gets back and, you know, Charlie in that movie talked about alternatives and opportunity cost. And for many people, the opportunity cost is owning a lot of bonds, which pay practically nothing, or owning stocks, which are selling at fairly high prices historically, but they weren't selling at those historic prices with interest rates like this. So I would not, I look at those numbers, but I also look at those numbers, but I also look at those at them in the context of the fact that we're living in the world that has incredibly low interest rates, and the question is, is how long those are going to prevail? Is it going to be something like Japan that goes on decade after decade? Or will we be back to what we thought was normal interest rates? If we get back to what are normal interest rates, stocks at these prices will look pretty high. If we continue with these kind of interest rates, stocks will look very cheap. And now I've given you the answer and you can take your pick. Charlie?
CharlieWell, since we failed to predict what happened and what exists now,
[1:06:34]
Warrenwhy would anybody ask us what our prediction is in the future? We, incidentally, the one thing I can assure you, Charlie and I, to my knowledge, or my memory, I can't recall ever us making an acquisition or turning down one, based on macro factors that, you know, and we talk about deals when they came along, but whether it was Seas Candy or whatever it might have been, the Burlington Northern, we bought it a terrible time, general economic conditions, but we don't talk, it just doesn't come up because we don't, we know we don't know what the next 12 months, 24 months, 30, we know we don't know what that's going to look like, going to look like, but it doesn't really make any difference if we're buying a business to hold for 100 years. What we have to do is figure out what's likely to be the average profitability of the business over time and how strong its competitive mode is and that sort of thing. So people have trouble believing that. They think we talk about it. We think any company that has an economist, you know, certainly has one employee too many. Charlie?
CharlieDo you think of anything rude to say that I haven't said?
WarrenWell, it would be hard to top that one. Okay. Okay. Jonathan.
QuestionerThere's been an awful lot written about what should be done to improve the safety of the crude by rail infrastructure. Both this week and last month, federal regulators introduced new standards. These new standards include thicker tanks, better fire protection, electronically controlled pneumatic brakes, and speed limits in more populous areas to reduce the chance of derailments near where people live. The railroad association has complained that the brakes are too expensive. while others have complained about what they view as an overly long timetable to switch out the old tank cars. Given the tank cars industries limits on manufacturing and retrofitting capacity and the impact on overall rail network velocity from speed limits, do you think the new rules strike the right balance between efficiency and safety? For Berkshire, what impact will these new rules have on the operations of Marmans Union tank car subsidiary and on the BNSF Railroad? Can you also update us on the BNSF Railroad? us on the BNSF initiative to purchase up to 5,000 of its own oil tankers, oil tank cars, which is a departure from historic industry practices, and what drove that decision?
WarrenYeah. Well, you've asked all the questions I'll be asking, but the, I think those rules just came out, what, two days ago now?
[1:09:20]
WarrenYeah, and there are 300 pages, and little as I have to do with this meeting and everything. I have not read those, although I've talked very briefly to Matt Roosevelt and also Frank Patack. who runs the company that manufactures and leases tank cars. You know, our interest, actually the interests of our railroad and our tank car manufacturing and leasing operation may diverge in various ways. Clearly, we've got an interest, the country has an interest, in developing safer cars, and we found that the, some cars we thought were safe, that turned out to be less safe than we thought going in. The most dangerous kinds of things we carry, of course, are we, as a common carrier, we have to carry chlorine, we have to carry ammonia, and we're required to carry that. We'd rather not carry it. There are dangerous products that have to get transported in the country, and it's more logical to transport them by rail than either truck or pipeline, and some of those we'd rather not carry, but we do carry. I would say that the, probably everybody will be somewhat unhappy with the rules, but then, you know, it's up to, it is up to Washington and the government to devise the rules under which something that is potentially dangerous is transported, and transporting by a pipeline has its problems. Transporting by rail has its problems, and railroads have gotten dramatically safer over the years. Our safety figures, and Burlington Northern leads the industry in safety, but the safety figures get better year after year, and you are, but you're going to have derailments, and you better, you better have very safe cars carrying that, and nothing will be perfect. Charlie?
CharlieYeah, well, big companies and successful companies, like Burlington Northern and Exxon and Chevron and so on, have a lot of engineers, and they have long histories of trying to be way safer than average and knowing a lot about how to do it. And none of that is going to change. You'd be out of your mind on these big companies and not run them with big attention to safety. And we're not out of our minds. and neither of the people who run Burlington Northern, the safety is going to be improved continuously and should be.
WarrenYeah, and it has been consistently, but it...
CharlieYeah. But there are new problems. For one thing, the Bakken crude has proven to be quite a bit more volatile than most of the crude that is... Well, it's not really crude, it's condensate.
[1:12:23]
WarrenI mean, it's almost misnamed, call it crude. It is more volatile. Yeah. I can tell you, and I may write about this next year, the report, though, that Burlington Northern has the best safety record among the big railroads and Berkshire Hathaway Energy, it's extraordinary their safety record in terms of utilities. And every utility we purchased at Berkshire Hathaway Energy, we've brought the safety statistics. They've gotten far better after Gray Aibald has taken over. After they bought the Omaha pipeline, which had been misband, and safety had been improperly ignored. We watched those people, the Berkshire employees, just worked day and night improving the safety. They didn't want more pipeline explosions. Yeah, we went from last out of 40-some, I think it was, to either second or first. And if we were second, it was because our other pipeline was first.
OtherOkay, station four. Hello, Mr. Munger and Mr. Buffett. Niroff Patel from Haverle, Massachusetts. What advice would you do you? What advice would you give to someone who's trying to network with influential people but doesn't have access to the alumni network of a top business school?
WarrenLet me take that one. I think you should do the best you can. Playing the hand you've got. Charlie's very old testament on this. Didn't get much past Genesis. It was his question that he didn't have a lot of associations because of... Well, he'd like to have you help him... Tap into... ...do well about business school training. I never had any business school training. Why should you have any? And actually, I would say the business school training, particularly in investments, was a handicap about 20 years ago when they were preaching efficient market theory because essentially they told you didn't do any good to try and figure out what a company was worth because the market had a price perfectly already. Imagine paying, you know, $30,000 or $40,000 a year to hear that. Yes. You were very lucky to avoid a law that you've avoided. How do you feel about your law school training, Charlie, while we're on it?
CharlieWell, I have a son-in-law recently explained how modern profit-obsessed law school law firms work. He says it's like a pie eating contest, and if you win, you get to eat a lot more pie.
OtherOkay, Becky. You're on. This question is a follow-up to the one that Jonathan Brandt just asked. It's an appropriate follow-up for that, though.
[1:15:36]
QuestionerIt comes from... Mark Blakely in Tulsa, Oklahoma, who says that one risk to Berkshire and BNSF appears to be a large railroad accident. It appears many recent accidents have occurred in rural areas. However, how would a worst-case scenario, perhaps one in a more urban area or a BP-type accident, impact BNSF and Berkshire Hathway, and is the company insured or protected against such losses?
WarrenOur insurance, reinsurance unit, unit actually went to the four major railroads offering very high limits. I think we, this is from memory, I could be off on this somewhat, but I think we offered something like five or six billion dollars excess of maybe a billion and a half or something like that to the railroad retained. So we, there's no question about it. If you had the exact wrong circumstances, you know, a train with a lot of the line, a lot of of ammonia chlorine or something, you know, right in some terrible urban area, the possibility always exists that that can happen. It can happen. You know, you can have plane crashes. There are things that are very small probabilities, but if we run trains millions and millions of miles, year after year, something will happen just like, you know, they happen in every other possible accident way. And so you minimize it, you obviously, you run trains slower in urban areas. They've already instituted that with crude. I think they brought it down to 35 miles an hour and towns of 100,000. That's the maximum. So that you're always working to be safer. You'll never be perfectly safe. We do not, we have some insurance at Burlington Northern, but we don't need insurance at Berkshire. You know, we've got the capability to take any loss that comes along. So we actually would be more likely to be offering that insurance, and we did offer that insurance, and the railroad industry didn't like our rates, which is understandable. And so they haven't bought it, but that doesn't mean they won't it sometime in the future. I should add one thing to, I forgot to say to Jonathan, I don't think we will be buying the 5,000 rail cars. I think, I don't know that for sure, but I, you know, there's going to be a lot going on in terms of retrofitting. Our Marmon operation has actually taken on a new facility that will be working very hard. Once we know what the retrofit requires, we will be, I'm sure, working three shifts on retrofitting cars, probably our own, probably our own.
[1:18:36]
Warrensome other people will be building new cars. The industry has been waiting to see what the requirements would be before moving ahead. The first quarter of 2015, there were practically no tank cars ordered. There's a backlog, but there's no tank cars were ordered because we need to see what the regulations are. But we'll be very active in retrofitting and in manufacturing cars. But I don't think we'll be, historically, the railroads have never really owned tank cars. That goes back to the Rockefeller days. And I think the present method of having car less sores, such as the one we own, I think we'll continue in the future rather than having the railroads own them.
QuestionerOkay, Gary. I have a question on intercompany transactions within the insurance companies. In the last couple of years, you've had a number of them. including 50% of the business seeded up to from GEICO to national indemnity. You did something similar with MedPro and with Guard. You also moved some of the companies or the subsidiaries like Clayton Holmes out of the GEICO sub and up into the holding company. It seems like a lot more activity than normal. And I'm just asking what is the main purpose of all those movements? What's what financial flexibility might it provide you and why now?
WarrenNow? Yeah. Well, there are a lot of things at Berkshire that the why now is answered by, can be answered by the fact, well, we just got around to it. The huge chunk of capital in the insurance companies is at national indemnity. So we have moved through these quota share arrangements. We've moved premium volume that is generated at GEICO or MedPro or different companies. We've moved that up to the parent, because that's where all the, there's that, you know, there's just extra layer after extra layer after extra layer of capital there. And it makes it a little simpler that way. It makes it a little simpler just in keeping all the money invested in, as opposed to having 50 pockets or 75 pockets to look at it, if you have a couple of main pockets to look at it. There's no real change in the certainty of payment of policies or anything of the sort. It really makes life a little, just a little easier in terms of managing the money by having most of the funds concentrated in national indemnity. So there's no mastermind to it. We ended up with a few companies in GEICO Corp, which was a holding company for Geico itself. And it just seemed that we,
[1:21:41]
Warrenprobably ought to get those up to the parent company level and we put them there. But our general approach is just to keep every place loaded with more capital than anybody could possibly conceive of us needing. And that's going to result more and more probably in the funds being concentrated in national indemnity.
OtherOkay. Station 5. Good morning Warren and good morning Charlie. My name is David Tullifson from Minneapolis, Minnesota.
QuestionerMinneapolis, Minnesota. Currently, the U.S. is not a prospective founding member of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank where many European countries are. The AIIB is relatively small, but if this is part of an ongoing trend in the next 50 years, how will that impact the U.S. multinational corporations? Thank you.
WarrenWell, that's a subject I know absolutely nothing about, so let's hope Charlie does.
CharlieI know a little less than you do. I really apologize to your terms of your question, but, you know, if we started talking about it, we'd be bluffing.
WarrenYou have a second question?
QuestionerOff the top of my head, how about the dollar as a reserve concern currency? Do you have any issues or concerns in the next 50 again?
WarrenI know we're in a good position now. but with us losing that position. I think the dollar will be the world's reserve currency 50 years from now. And I think the probabilities of that are very high. Nothing's certain, but I would bet a lot of money on that one. Charlie?
CharlieWell, I have a little feeling on that subject. I'm probably more nervous than a lot of people about printing a lot of money and spending it. There are times when you have to do it, I'm sure. We just came through one. But I'm happy. when we print money and use it improving infrastructure than I am when we just spread around with a helicopter. So what do you think is going to happen if we keep spreading around with a helicopter?
QuestionerI think it's always more dangerous than the economic progression and things.
OtherOkay, with that we'll go to Andrew.
Andrew Ross SorkinOkay, this question comes from a local shareholder, Max Rudolph, who writes in, recently several subsidiaries were renamed to include Berkshire or B.H. in their name, which Mr. Buffett has avoided doing, previously, at least due in part, I imagine, to increased reputational risk should something go wrong? Can you discuss how you decide which subs are allowed to rebrand and discuss those risks, given that Clayton, NetJets, and others have received negative publicity this year?
[1:24:48]
QuestionerAnd attached to that question, Steve Ryder of Chicago asks, will fruit of the loom become Berkshire undergarments?
WarrenWell, if it does, we won't pay him a royalty for the idea. They, we did create a Berkshire-Hathaway home service operation, which is a franchise operation. We bought two-thirds of the Prudential franchise operation a couple of years ago, and we have a contract where we can buy the, we'll buy the remaining third in another couple of years. And so we were going to lose the rights. to prudential over time. And Greg Able asked me about using Berkshire Hathaway, and I told them that they could use it, but that if I started hearing of any abuses of it or anything of the sort, we would yank it. And that maybe that would be a useful tool in making sure that people behaved like we wanted them to. And so far, that's worked out fine. We've had no idea that we wanted to take Berkshire Hathaway into becoming a household name and that that would create extra value. But we were going to rename a large franchising operation. And like I say, as long as the name does not get abused, that'll be fine. And the Van Tile Auto, we're calling us the Berkshire Hathaway Automotive Group. Certain of the dealers will have the right to use. that is a tagline and others won't. And again, if there's problems connected with it, we'll change it. But in a sense, that isn't bad. If there are going to be problems, I just soon hear about them. And if I hear about them, because the name is Berkshire Hathaway, it may mean that I get on top of them faster than I would otherwise. We have no, we have, we have, good many of our companies at the bottom of their letterhead or something of the sort, they say a Berkshire Hathaway company, and that's fine. But we have no. We do not anticipate that we're going to turn it into some huge asset by branding a bunch of products that way. Charlie?
CharlieWell, we'd be crazy to try and sell Berkser Hathaway peanut brittles instead of C's. They, these, those old brand names are worth a lot of money.
QuestionerOkay, Greg. This question is on the energy business. During last year's meeting, we touched briefly on the topic of distributed generation, a method of generating electricity on a small scale at the point of construction. consumption from renewable and non-renewable energy sources. Much of this has come around the last several years due to the growth of renewable energy
[1:27:41]
Questionersources like solar and wind. Up until now, though, it has been difficult, if not cost prohibitive, for self-generators to store this energy. Now that Elon Musk has joined the fray this week with his idea of batteries for the home for his new Tesla energy initiative, which could lead the way for larger systems for business use, and realizing that disruptive technologies can't at times offend an industry. Street's business model and competitive positioning. How long do you believe it will be before distributed generation becomes a meaningful threat to your utilities, especially if power can be stored more easily at the end user's place of business or home?
WarrenWell, you put your finger on storage being the key. Charlie, follows stories a good bit more than I do, and maybe I'll have Greg Able to talk about it. But obviously, distributed energy is something we've paid a lot of attention to. One of the, probably the best defense is to have very low-cost energy. And men Americans done a terrific job in that respect. And the figures in terms of people who have adopted solar in our territories are just minuscule and to say that way. But huge improvements in storage would make a difference in a lot of ways. And Charlie, what are your thoughts on that?
CharlieWell, obviously, we're going to use a lot more renewable energy because the fossil fuels aren't going to last for it. ever. And obviously, Berkshire is very aggressive and very well located in terms of this development. You know, I grew up here in this part of the world. And to have 20% of the power of Berkshire utilities in Iowa coming from the wind, I regard it is a huge stunt. And it's, of course, very desirable in a windy place like Iowa, the farmers like the farmers like the extra income to be getting a lot of power. out of the wind. And of course, we're going to have to have a lot better storage. And the technology has been improving. And this is, it's not a threat. It's a huge benefit to humanity. And I think it'll be a huge benefit to Berkshire. I mean, everything is working for us. I love owning Mid-American in an era when we're going to have more storage, more wind, more solar, more grid. And I think we're so lucky, what the hell would we do as the fossil fuels run down if we didn't have the sum to use indirectly in these forms? And of course, the, it's going to be a lot more storage. And of course, there'll be some disruption in the utility industry, but there'll be more opportunity, I think, than disruption.
[1:30:31]
WarrenJust in the last week, we've announced two different, we're already the leader, and we've announced two different projects. One in Nebraska, I think it's 400 megawatts in Nebraska. That'll be the first time we've had a wind farm here. And then we just got approval in the last couple of days for, I think, a billion and a half worth more of wind in Iowa. And I think Charlie mentioned 20%, but if we could, if Greg able to take the microphone, I think it's a lot greater percentage than that now. It's a moving target, so I may not have kept Charlie posted on the number, but Greg, would you bring people up the date on what percent we will be in? in Iowa when the present projects are completed? And also, what has happened in Nevada and a few places like that? Greg?
Greg AbelSo love to provide an update. Actually, as it's been touched on, we announced our 10th project in Iowa. That brings us to more than 4,000 megawatts built over the last 10 years in that state. And at the end of 2016, we will now have 58% of our energy, approximately 58% of our energy that we provide to our customers coming from wind. And then if you continue to, thank you. And then if you continue to look at our other utilities and our unregulated businesses, Warren, you've touched on this in the past, we now have more than $18 billion committed to renewable assets across our different utilities. And if you look at NB Energy, our Nevada utility, for example, we've committed to retire 76% of their coal by 2019. and a large portion of that will be replaced with renewable energy. So clearly a continued commitment to that.
QuestionerGreg, in our utility business, do you think we have more disruption to fear or more opportunity to love?
Greg AbelDistributed generation in solar bring great opportunities for all of our, all of our different utilities, and we'll embrace it.
WarrenWell, yes, you couldn't be lucky, is what I'm telling you. And one thing that has helped in. in this respect is that wind and solar, the development of wind and solar at present are dependent on tax credits. In other words, the federal government's made a decision that the market system would not produce solar or wind under today's economics, but it has an interest as a society in developing it. So they have established a credit, I think, it's one point, and electric is 1.9 cents a kilowatt for 10 years. And because Berkshire Hathaway energy is part of the consolidated tax return of Berkshire Hathaway, Inc.
[1:33:33]
Greg AbelIt has been able to invest far more money than it would make sense to invest on a stand-alone basis. Among electric utilities in the United States, there's really no one situated as well as mid-American energy is because it's part of this consolidated tax return to really put its foot to the floor in terms of developing wind and solar. So it's become the biggest developer by far among the utility industry. And I think it's very likely to continue to be simply because most utilities really don't pay not much income tax and therefore they're sort of limited in how far they can push development of wind and solar.
OtherOkay, station six.
QuestionerHello, I'm Leonid Zagalowski. I'm from Chicago, Illinois, and Berkeley, California. I'd like to thank you for giving an opportunity to ask this question. This is my first meeting. I tend to attend once every 50 years. And also for your essay on, both of your essays, on the past, present and future of Berkshire. As we reflect on the last 50 years, I'd like you ask you this question, What was your most memorable failure and how did you deal with it? Thank you.
WarrenYeah. Well, we've discussed Dexter many times in the annual report, where I, back in the mid-1990s, I looked at a shoe business in Dexter, Maine, and decided to pay 400 or so million dollars for something that was destined to go to zero in a few years. And I didn't figure that out. And then on top of that. of that, I gave the purchase price in stock, and I guess that stock would be worth me, I don't know, maybe six or seven billion now. It makes me feel better when the stock goes down because the stupidity gets reduced. Nobody misled me on that in any way. I just looked at it and came up with the wrong answer. But I would say almost any time we've issued shares, it's been a mistake. It's been a mistake. Wouldn't you say that, Shirley?
CharlieOf course.
WarrenYeah. We don't do it much anymore.
CharlieNo.
WarrenWe probably got to push harder, particularly in the earlier. We've probably got to push harder, particularly in the earlier years. We've always been, well, we've had all of our own net worth in the company. We've had all our family's net worth, and we've had all these friends that came out of our partnership, many of whom put half or more of their net worth with us. So we've been very, very, very cautious in what we've done. And there probably were times when we could have stretched a little and pull off something quite large
[1:36:47]
Warrenthat we made a mistake looking back. But I wouldn't want to take a 1% chance, you know, of wiping out my aunt Katie's net worth or something. It's just not something in life that I could live with. So I would rather be, you know, 100 times too cautious than 1% to incautious. And that will continue as long as I'm around. But people looking at our past would say that we missed some big opportunities that we understood and could have swung if we'd want to go out and borrow more money. Charlie?
CharlieWell, it's obviously true. If we had used the leverage that a lot of successful operators did, Berkshire would be a lot bigger. A lot bigger. A lot bigger. And, but we would have been sweating at night. It's crazy to sweat at night. Over financial things. Over financial things, yes.
WarrenWell, we won't pursue that. Carol?
Carol LoomisIn 2008 annual letter, you mentioned that a likely consequence of the Treasury and Federal Reserve's action to stabilize the economy would be, quote, an onslaught of inflation. Now that we are presumably nearing the time when the Federal Reserve will begin raising interest rates, could you share your thoughts regarding both the likelihood of accompanying high inflation and the consequences that might follow? And if high rates of inflation did occur, how would the consequences for Berkshire compared to those for most large companies? And this question, I say belatedly, came from James Cook. of Waterville, Maine.
WarrenYeah. Well, so far we've been very wrong, or I've been very wrong. Charlie's probably been a little bit wrong, too. Of course. Yeah. No, I would not have predicted that you could have five or six years of, you know, close to zero rates and now get negative rates in Europe and run fairly large deficit, although the current deficit is not that large. I mean, the country could sustain on average. you know, two or two and a half percent deficits forever and not increase the ratio of national, of debt to GDP. So the word deficit is not a dirty word, but very large deficits and sort of uncontrollable are scary. But we, you know, we've taken the Federal Reserve balance sheet up from a trillion to over four trillion, and we've done a lot of things that weren't in my economics 101 course. And so far nothing bad has happened except for the fact that people who saved and kept their money in short-term savings instruments have just totally gotten killed in terms of their, the income that they received from that.
[1:40:01]
WarrenBut it's still hard for me to see how if you toss money from helicopters that eventually you don't have inflation, certainly if the money supplied grows faster and faster relatively. the output of goods and services, something like that is supposed to happen. But I've been surprised by what's happened. I've been, you know, when Poland issues bonds that are negative interest rates, you know, I did not have that list that in my list of forecast a few years ago. And so I think, I think we're operating in a world that that Charlie and I don't understand very well and that, and to the second part of the question, I think Berkshire, in almost any kind of environment, we'll do better than most big companies. I mean, we are prepared for anything. We'll always be prepared for anything. And if we see really unusual opportunities, we're also prepared to act. And that gives us a real advantage over most big companies. We don't count on anybody else. We're sitting with over $60 billion right now. I'd rather be sitting with $20 billion. billion and have made a great $40 billion acquisition. But we will, you know, we will, we will, we will be very willing to act if economic turbulence of any kind occurs and will be prepared. And most people won't be, Charlie.
CharlieYeah, we have made very little progress in life by trying to outguess these macroeconomic factors. We basically have abdicated. We're just swimming all the time, and we have the tide to take care of itself. And we really don't see, we've not seen great successes by others who have been all involved in macro predictions. I mean, they get a lot of air time, but that's about all that happens. The trouble with making all these economic pronouncements is that people gradually get so they think they know something. It's much better just to say I'm ignorant. Yeah. We will find things, though, under any circumstances. They don't come in an even flow. They may not, you know, you can't predict the size or anything, but you can be sure that over the next 10 years, you'll see a lot of things you didn't think were possible. And we will occasionally see something that makes sense for Berkshire, and we will be prepared to do it both psychologically and financially.
QuestionerOkay, Jonathan.
OtherFor a variety of reasons. Bonus depreciation on fixed assets, investments in the non-insurance businesses, perhaps being the most important. Berkshire's cash taxes have been meaningfully lower than reported taxes for the last several years.
[1:43:08]
QuestionerThe cumulative difference between cash taxes and reported taxes, which could be viewed as another form of float, now stands at around $37 billion. Do you consider any portion of the cash flow from annual increase in deferred taxes to be economic earnings? Is this a sustainable? sustainable dynamic, or do you expect the relationship between cash and reported taxes to ever flip, for instance, if bonus depreciation ever expires? Given Berkshire's massive appetite for capital expending at the utility in the railroad, is it possible instead that its deferred tax liability will never have to be paid no matter what Congress does with bonus depreciation, and is it perhaps even likely that this form of float will continue to grow?
WarrenProbably the most likely answer. There's two forms. forms of it float from deferred taxes. One is the unrealized appreciation on securities and and there, who knows what happens. I don't think the appreciation is going to disappear, but we may decide to realize some of it from time to time. In fact, we could realize a lot of it. If you move over to the depreciation, which you're talking about on the 37 billion, because the total deferred taxes, as I remember, maybe 60 billion or something like that, that is a factor of a accelerated depreciation. And one form or another of accelerated depreciation has been around a long time. Occasionally, I think the bonus depreciation one year went to 100%. I could be wrong on that. Certainly in our utility business, that helps our customer and it doesn't help us, basically. I mean, we get a, we will get a return on equity, and that is not free equity to us or anything of the sort. The regulatory commissions take that into account. Return on investor capital in terms of how the surface transportation board would look at it. Again, I don't think we benefit enormously by that. It does mean there's less cash going out at the door and we have to, and we therefore don't need to borrow as much money for capital investment as otherwise. But I don't think I would look at that as a hidden form of equity. I'd rather have the deferred taxes and not have them, but it's not, it's not meaningful there. Now, what could happen is it overwhelmingly, those deferred taxes were probably entirely, even sent there in the United States, were accrued at a 35% rate. So if the corporate rate changed, then you would have a major change in the deferred tax item.
[1:45:50]
QuestionerAnd there's always a possibility of that. There would be a book entry. It wouldn't mean much. It wouldn't mean much, yeah. Yeah, yeah. We do the float from the insurance business we regard it as a terrific asset. The deferred tax liability is a plus, but it's not, it's not a big asset. Okay, station seven. Hi. My name is Dan Hutner from Vermont. I was wondering if you could talk about Henry Singleton's Teledyne and whether you were in lessons from that, used it as a model, and what you think about, how it ultimately unwound, and how you might want Berkshire to continue differently.
WarrenYeah, that's a very good question. And Charlie knew Henry Singleton. I knew a lot about him. I mean, I studied him very carefully, but Charlie knew him personally, as well as studying him. So I'm going to let Charlie answer that. But there's a lot to be learned from both what Singleton did in his operating years, and then what happened subsequently.
CharlieHenry Singleton was very interesting. He was a lot smarter than either Warren or I. Henry was the kind of guy that always got 800 on every test and left early. And he could play chess blindfolded just below the grandmaster level when he was an old man. That said, I watched him invest, and I watched Warren invest, and Warren did a lot better. He just worked out of it. Henry was thinking about inertial guidance, and Warren was thinking about securities, and the extra work enabled Warren to get by with him. this horrible deficit of IQ compared to Henry. Let's not quantify it. The interesting thing about Singleton is he had very clever incentives on all the key executives. And they were tough and they were important and they were meaningful. And in the end, he had three different defense departments that got into scandals. He wasn't. He wasn't doing anything wrong. He wasn't trying to hurt the Defense Department on purpose. But the incentives got so strong and the culture of performance got so strong that people actually went too far in dealing with the government. Teladine did. And so we haven't had any trouble like that that I know of. Can you think of anyone?
WarrenNo.
CharlieAnd Charlie and I, we really believe in the power of incentives and there's these hidden incentives. that we try to avoid. One, we have seen both of us more than once, really decent people misbehave because they felt that there was a loyalty to their CEO to present certain number, to deliver certain
[1:48:59]
Warrennumbers, because the CEO went out and made a lot of forecasts about what the company would earn. And if you go and say, if I were to say that Berkshire is going to earn X per share next year, and we have a bunch of executives in the insurance business that set loss reserves and do all kinds of things or companies in other areas that can load up channels at the end of quarters, at the end of years, I've just seen, I've seen a lot of misbehavior that actually doesn't profit anybody financially, but it's been done merely because they don't want to make the CEO look bad in terms of his forecast, or he's done it because he doesn't want to look. When they get their ego involved, people do things that they shouldn't do. And so we try to eliminate incentives that would cause people to misbehave not only for financial rewards, but for, you know, ego satisfaction. And I think that's probably pretty unusual. even be considering that in the business, but we've seen enough so we do consider it. I might also report that at the end, Henry wanted to sell his business to Berkshire for stock, so he was very smart right to the very end. We had a case at national, this is, it's interesting, you really have to understand, should understand human behavior if you get to run a business, because when national indemnity, we're going back to the late 1960s. Jack Ringwalt was a marvelous man. They ran it, and he had another marvelous man who worked for him, his tennis partner, and that fellow was in charge of claims. And when the claims man would come into Jack and say, I just received a claim for $25,000 or something for some long haul truck or something, Jack would say, Jack, it was just his personality, he would start berating the fellow and saying, you know, how can you do this to me? And these claims are killing me and all of that. And he was joking. But the fellow he was joking with couldn't take it, really, and he started hiding claims. And he just didn't, he stuck them in a drawer. And that caused us to do not only misreport fairly minor figures, but it also caused us to misinform our reinsurers because they had an interest in the size of claims. And the The fellow that was hiding the claims had no financial interest in doing it at all, but he just didn't like to walk into the office and have Jack kid him about the fact that he was failing him. And you really have to be very careful in the messages you send as a CEO.
[1:51:55]
WarrenAnd if you tell your managers you never wanted to disappoint Wall Street and you want to report expert share, you may find that they start fudging figures. to protect your your predictions. And we try to avoid all that kind of behavior at Berkshire. We just seen too much trouble with it.
Becky QuickBecky?
Becky QuickThis question comes from Anthony Starachi in Lincoln, Nebraska. He says, if government regulators deem Berkshire Hathaway's reinsurance business too big to fail, how would government regulation of the reinsurance business affect Berkshire Hathaway?
WarrenYeah. The question, there's two essentially regulatory aspects to it. One is there's a European, and I hope I'm describing this right, I may be wrong a little bit on some technicality. There's a European group that is looking at insurers generally and has designated, I believe, nine or so insurance companies is, I'm not sure what they call them, but they deserve special attention, I'll put it that way, there's a technical name for it. The one that's more relevant in the United States is the financial stability oversight committee, I believe they call it, which designates so-called SIFI's systemically important financial institutions. And large banks are in that category, and then the question is what non-banks are in it. And they designated General Electric and Prudential. And recently, Metropolitan, and Metropolitan is fighting the designation. The question is whether, the question isn't just whether you're large. I mean, ExxonMobil's large, Apple's large, Apple's large, Walmart's large, and nobody thinks about them as SIFEs. The definition on a non-bank, SIFI would be 85% of revenues coming from financial matters, and we don't come remotely close on that. I mean, we're 20% or thereabouts. But the real question is whether problems that Berkshire might encounter could destabilize the financial system in the country. We have not been approached. Nobody's ever called me. They spent a year with Metropolitan even before they designate them. So there's, we have no reason in logic or in terms of what we've heard to think that Berkshire would be designated as a SIFI. I mean, during the last time of trouble, we were about the only party that was supplying help to the financial system. And we will always conduct ourselves in a way where the problems of others can't hurt us in any significant way. And I think we're almost unique among financial institutions and the layers of safety that we've built into our system in terms of both cash and operating methods and everything else.
[1:55:43]
WarrenSo it's a moot question. The law exists. We haven't been, we haven't been approached about it. And as we, as I know, as I mentioned, apparently it takes a year or so even if they approach you while they listen to your presentation and look at your facts. And I do not think Berkshire Hathaway comes within miles of qualifying as a SIFI.
CharlieCharlie?
CharlieI think that's true, but I think that generally speaking, there is still too much risk. in a lot of high finance. And the idea that Doug Frank has removed it all permanently is nonsense. And people like hanging onto it, you know, trading derivatives is a principle if you're shrewd. It's a lot like running a bucket shop in the 20s or a gambling parlor in the current era. And you have a gambling parlor that you have a proprietary edge in and you say it's sharing risk and helping the economy and so forth. And that's mostly nonsense. The people are doing it because they like making money with their gambling parlor and they like favorable labels instead of unfavorable labels. So I think there's still danger in the financial system. And I also think our competitors don't like it that they deserve regulation and we don't. And I think there's danger in that too. One thing that may not be, I haven't read much about it, but My understanding is that Dodd Frank actually weakens the power of the Fed, and to some extent, the Treasury, too, to take the kind of actions they took in 2008, primarily. And those powers were needed to keep our system, in my view, from really going into utter chaos. The ability to say and have people, people believe you when you say it that whatever needs to be done will be done has resided in the Federal Reserve and with the Central Bank, the European Central Bank. And the fact that people believed when Hank Paulson said that the money market funds are going to be guaranteed, that stopped a run on three and a half trillion of money market funds that had lost $175 billion in deposits in the first three days there back in September of one week. If that, if people hadn't believed that, you would have seen that $175 billion turn into a trillion very quickly. I mean, the system would have gone down. So the, when you have a panic, you have to have someone somewhere who can say and be believed, and be correctly believed, that he or she will do whatever it takes. And you saw what happened in Europe when Draghi finally said that,
[1:59:16]
Warrenand you saw what happened in the United States when Bernanke and Paulson, more or less, together, said it. And if you don't have that, panics will, they will accelerate like you can. believe. You know, in the old days, the only way you could stop a run on a bank was basically for somebody to come and pile up gold. I mean, they used to race it to the branches that were having a problem. I remember reading the history of the Bank of America on that and how they would put out runs before the Federal Reserve existed. And the only thing to stop it was to pile up gold. I mean, if the CEO of the bank came out and said, you know, our Basel 2 ratio is 11.4%, the line would just lengthen. It would not get the job done. Gold got the job done. Bernanke got the job done. But the only way they got it done was saying, we're guaranteeing new commercial paper. We're guaranteeing that the money market funds won't break the bank. You know, we're going to do whatever's necessary. I think Dodd-Frank weakens that, and I think that's a terrible thing to weaken.
QuestionerOkay, Gary. workers comp operation online, B.H.DWC.com. It looks a little bit like you're geicoizing some of the commercial lines. What's the overall strategy of that effort and how big do you think it can grow? And what concerns might you have on channel conflict with Guard who uses independent agents?
WarrenYeah, we, well, Progressive got, did pretty well with channel conflict between direct writing and agents. We will find out what the consumer wants, but we are experimenting with online workers comp. As you can tell, we've done pretty well with online direct auto over the years. We'll find out. I don't think that, I don't think the channel conflict is a big problem for us. It might be a bigger problem for some other companies, but I don't think that's a big problem. And it's a trickier thing. We write commercial auto through GEICO, and that's grown, and it's not small, but it hasn't achieved private passenger auto proportions at all. So we'll find out. But we believe in, we believe in experimenting at Berkshire, and we've got the know-how to write that business and direct, and we'll find out if the customer wants to buy it that way. We've got an awfully good insurance business, but the nature of the insurance business has changed. I mean, GEICO was all direct mail back in 1936 when Leo Goodwin and his wife sat there and stuffed
[2:02:27]
Warrenenvelopes. And the basic idea of saving people money on auto insurance continues to this day but it went from direct mail to the it went to the TV and the phone with the cable TV and it went to the internet and and goes to mobile and you know it the world moves on and the key is to be able to save people money and give them good service and whatever way does that in the most effective way is going to be what wins 20 or 30 or 50 years from now and we'll try to stay on top of it
QuestionerOkay, Station 8. Hello. My name is Paula, and I'm from Gainesville, Florida, and I would just like to ask, Mr. Buffett, after all these years of interviews and meetings, what is the one question that you've never been asked that you would like to answer now?
WarrenWell, I like to think of the question I haven't been asked, but I'm not sure I want to answer it now. I think I've been asked almost all of them and many, many of them time after time after time. Charlie, do you have anything that he's just dying to be asked?
CharlieWell, does that he will first tell us the worst thing she ever did in her life.
WarrenPaula, I wish we could help you. If you've got another question you'd like to throw at us.
QuestionerYeah. Good to ask you another question. Good. Can I buy you lunch?
WarrenI think she's talking to you. I think she's talking to you, Charlie. He always wins. You saw him in the movie, he always gets the girl.
CharlieYeah, I'm so heavily involved with those girls in the movie that I just don't have room on my list.
WarrenThank you, Paula.
OtherOkay, Andrew.
Andrew Ross SorkinThis is a toughie, and I should say we probably got, or at least I got several dozen emails on 3G. And so this is a follow-up to what you talked about on 3G earlier, and specifically actually, it's two questions. one that actually came from the audience after your response about 3G. So just to put it in perspective, those shareholders are in the audience, and they asked not to be named. So here we go. The shareholder writes, I intend no disrespect to 3G's money-making abilities, and as a Berkshire shareholder liked the partnership very much. However, you took more than a decade to shut down the Berkshire Mills. You take great pride in letting Berkshire managers run their companies for you, and as Charlie says, almost to the point of abdication. And that approach has made Berkshire a very attractive home for companies. You even bought newspaper groups in the face of the Internet title wave and acknowledged
[2:05:28]
QuestionerAre you actually saying 3G's management method is congruent with yours? Asked another way, if 3G ran Berkshire, would there not be significant layoffs and consolidation among the companies, an intense focus on short-term problems?
WarrenNo, I think there would be some companies they make changes in. But I would say that GEICO, for example, 33,000 employers or whatever the number is, is run just as efficiently as 3G would run it. I would say our home office with 25 people, we could have a home office with 500 people. We could have floors devoted to strategy and floors devoted to human resources and comparing the salaries of everybody at all our different companies and so on. If they walked into that situation, they'd cut it back. I don't know whether they get it down to the 25 we have, but we do not believe in having extra people around. At our newspapers, you know, unfortunately, you know, they have had to cut back as revenue has kept shrinking. And the idea that you run a fat operation just because you're making a lot of money is we cut back in our textile business. I closed the Wombach mill considerably before we closed the Berkshire mills. It only when it became apparent that it was just hopeless, we gave up on it. But in the meantime, every time at Berkshire, I had a drawer full of proposals that said, if we put in this kind of a loom, we'll be able to get rid of eight people. And we put in the loom. I mean, we were trying to reduce our labor complement all the time because we were in competition with people that were doing the same thing. So I don't think there's any, I don't think there's anything. We do have some businesses that probably have more people than we need, and I don't do something about it. But I don't encourage it in any way, and most of our managers don't operate that way. And it's true if 3G were running our operations, they would get more active at that than I will. But that doesn't mean that I endorse it. It just means that I basically tolerate it, where I've got a manager that I think, well, I think better of the 3G way method of operation than I do of our operators, they really have excess people in it. We've got very few of those, but we do have a few. So I would never advocate running a business at a loss, where it's going to continue. And you'll see that in our economic principles.
[2:08:06]
WarrenIt's been in the back of the annual report for 30 years or so. And the same goes for having excess people around. And I think you'll see our attitude. toward excess people best expressed in our office here that has 25 people and Charlie's office in Los Angeles that has two, counting him. I'd say we got two-thirds of one. We're getting by with practically nothing.
QuestionerYeah. Okay, Greg. This is sort of a follow-on to the 3G question. When we look at the body of work that the firm is put together in the consumer staples universe, and as Bush and Bev for King Tim Hortons and Now Kraft-Hines, one gets the sense that they view the average consumer staples firm as being undermanaged with the potential for substantially greater levels of profitability. Given the ongoing struggles of many packaged food firms, most of which compete in a mature category against private label and or store brand offerings that undercut them in price and diminish the value of their brands, and many of them having to deal with large retailers like Walmart that provide meaningful sales volumes but are also quite demanding and continuously pushing for the lowest price available, do you see the potential for the potential for the lowest price available? Do you see the potential for further consolidation in the industry with a firm like Kraft-Hines emerging as a big consolidator? Or do you feel that Nestle's more recent squawking about the deal in 3G Capital's reputation as being a bit heavy-handed with cost-cutting being enough to keep further consolidation at bay?
WarrenWell, there will be deals in the future. I mean, they're bound to be it. But the strong brands, you know, just look at the ones that general foods at and, you know, just look at the the ones that General Foods had in the 1980s and the ones that Kraft has now that come from that same company and I mean, Coca-Cola sold more cases of beverages last year than any year in their history and they'll sell more this year. I mean, it's a strong brand is really potent stuff. I mean, take Heinz ketchup or something of the sort. It's 60% brand share in the United States, but it's much higher in many other countries. So you'll always have the fight between the retailer and the brand. And the retailer is going to use all the pressure they've got, and therefore the brand has to stand for something in the consumer's mind. Because in the end, the retailer may want to shift to a house brand, private label.
[2:10:47]
WarrenAnd private labels have been around forever in the soft drink field. I mean, I can remember when I was looking at hot beverage and all of those and thinking, you know, what will it do to us? I remember when Sam Walton sent me the first six-pack, he told me it was the first six-pack of Sam's cola 20 years ago. And believe me, Walmart has plenty of power, but so does Coca-Cola. And the brand, you've got to nourish them. You know, you've got to take very, very, very good care of them. They have to stand for the promise that's in people's mind about them. But a lot of people have tried to, I don't how many dozens or maybe hundreds of cola beverages there have been over the years. R.C. Cola, you know, they came up with the first diet product back in the early 60s. And that looked like a big, big maneuver. Wilkinson came up with a blade back in the 60s after Gillette. And but Gillette ends up with 70% by dollar value worldwide of razor blades after 100 years. So there's all, you've got to protect a brand. You've got to enhance it in every way. You've got to get a promise in people's minds that gets delivered that way. But that's the question Charlie and I faced in 1972 when we looked at Seas. Seas was selling for $1.95 a pound. Russell Stover was selling a little cheaper. And you had to decide how much damage could a Russell Stover do if they came after Seas and they copied our shops and all that sort of thing. If you protect a brand, if you've got a terrific brand and you protect it, it's a fabulous asset, but you'll always have trouble dealing with Costco and Walmart and the rest of the guys, Kroger, and you name it, you know, they're, they're tough too. But the great brands will survive and the great retailers will do well. Charlie?
CharlieWell, we've almost exhausted this topic. There's no question about the fact that waves of layoffs frighten people. A job is a very important part of a person's life, and it's no It's no small thing to lose it. But on the other hand, I don't think you, what would our country be if we'd kept everybody on the farm? All this prosperous group would be pitching hay and milking cows it for in the morning. No, we need our businesses to be right-sized. Station 9. I'd have some pledge, Charlie. Very exciting. Yeah, what are you exciting to see my I'm Leo, a value investor from China, and a lawyer fine of you and Charlie. Many Chinese investors feel all kinds of performance pressure, question, and even laughing at
[2:13:50]
Questionervalue investing. Many also believe that value investing does not apply to China, where the stock market just doubled over the last six months. I would like to to ask Mr. Buffy, do you think value investment can be wildly applied in all markets or just for material markets just as the ones in the United States? Do you have any suggestions for value investors to hold against pressure and to be much happy? Thank you.
OtherOkay, I'm not sure I got all of it, but Charlie will help me.
WarrenI certainly think investment principles do not see. principles do not stop at borders. So if I were investing in China or anyplace else, India, UK, Germany, I would apply exactly the same sort of principles that I learned from the intelligent investor. I would think of stocks as a small piece of a business. I would think of investment fluctuations being there to benefit me rather than to hurt me. And I would try to focus my attention on businesses that I thought, where I thought I understood the competitive advantage they had and what they would look like in five or ten years. So I don't think, I don't think I would change the principles at all. I'm not sure I got all of the question. Maybe Charlie can elaborate on the rest.
CharlieWell, the Chinese have a history of being very entrepreneurial and of gambling very heavily when they have the opportunity. And it has created great volatility in the Chinese stock markets. And when things get bouncing and prosperous like our internet craze here in the United States, China looks a lot like Silicon Valley. I think China would be way better to be more value investor-minded and less absorbed in waves of speculation. So I think if the more China copies the way Berkshire operates, I think the better it will be for China.
WarrenYeah, there's a certain irony. that we will do the best over decades if we operated in a market where people operated very foolishly. And the more people respond to short-term events and exaggerated things or anything that causes people to get wildly enthusiastically or wildly depressed actually is what allows people to make lots of money in securities. And on the other hand, it's not the great. this thing for a society. And Charlie and I have benefited enormously by the fact that over a 50-year period, there have been a few periods, probably the most extraordinary being 1973 and 74, where you could buy stocks unbelievably cheap, cheaper than happened in 2008 and 2009.
[2:17:03]
WarrenAnd, you know, it doesn't make sense to have that much volatility in the market, but Humans behave the way humans behave, and they're going to continue to behave that way in the next 50 years. I mean, if you're a young investor and you can sort of stand back and value stocks as businesses and invest when things are very cheap, no matter what anybody is saying on television or what you're reading, and perhaps if you wish, sell when people get terribly enthused, it is really not a very tough intellectual game. It's a very, it's an easy game if you can control your emotions. And as Charlie says that you think we've talked about a little bit that the Chinese market may be more, there may be more speculative influences in it even than in the United States because it's a relatively new development and it may lend itself to greater extremes. And that should produce great opportunities. Charlie?
CharlieYeah, well, there's great opportunities for, excess and nasty contractions after unnatural booms and so on. I think China is wise to dampen the speculated booms, and I think the Chinese, I don't think the value investing will ever go out of style. Who in the hell doesn't want value when you buy something? How can there be anything else that makes any sense except value investing? It never gets that popular, though. People are looking for an easy, year away. And that's a mistake. It looks easier, but in fact, it's harder. And there's a lot of misery to be obtained by misusing stocks.
WarrenYeah. Nobody buys a farm that make a lot of money next week or next month. Or they buy it, you know, apartment house. They buy it based on what they think the long-term future is. And if they get a, if they make a reasoned calculation of that and the purchase price looks attractive, they buy it. And then they don't get a quote on it every day or every week or every month even every year. And that's probably a better way to look at stocks. Carol?
Carol LoomisMr. Buffett, you have expressed your optimism about the future of America many times and have often made the point that the U.S. simply has a superior economic system. But my question, and this is from Christopher Gottsho of New York City, my question concerns the risk of chemical, nuclear, biological, and cyber security problems, And the audience should reflect on the initial letters of those words when I tell you that Mr. Buffett has sometimes dubbed that CNBC.
[2:19:58]
Becky QuickSorry, Becky.
WarrenWell, I just do that to tease people, but the... Wait a minute, one more, one more. How do these threats affect your outlook? Well, they are the great threat to the United States. The, we will have, we have and will have, a wonderful economic system. Your children are going to live better than you do, and your grandchildren are going to live better than they do. And that is that is that. There are fits and starts and ups and downs, but just go outside or as you fly home, just imagine what you're flying over looked like in 1776, and everything since then is profit. I mean, the farms are incredibly more productive, the cities have grown. It's all here, you know, and that's all come from unleashing. the energies and brains of the American people and the system that has worked quite well, despite all the deficiencies that we talk about all the time. So that hasn't been lost at all. And, you know, people get upset because we're having 2% growth. Well, 2% growth with 1% population growth means 20% gain in a generation. And 20% on 54,000 of GDP per capita is another 10,000 of GDP per capita coming in the next generation. This country has a wonderful future, but as the questioner pointed out, that can all be nullified by either madmen or rogue states or religious fanatics or sociopaths or whatever it may be who wish to have access to weapons of mass destruction and to nuclear, which I used to think was the primary one, you can now add. biological and chemical and cyber, and there will be an increasing number. There already are a huge number of people that would wish harm, and particularly on the United States, although on others as well, and those people aren't going to go away, and they're going to look for more ingenious ways of utilizing the raw materials that they have, or might get access to, and better delivery systems, and we need an extremely vigilant security operation in the United States, and we will have threats. I can't, I do a little bit about those things in a few ways, but that's something we live with. But we also live in a country that is going to do extraordinarily well, and if we successfully ward off those threats, or at least minimize impact on us. I still maintain that the luckiest person ever born in history on a probabilistic basis is the baby being born in the United States today. Charlie?
CharlieWell, of course, we were a favored place, and we've had a favorite outcome, and we've been lucky, too.
[2:23:16]
CharlieI think I probably lived in the most ideal era that any man in human history could have been born into. I think you too, you have too, Warren. All right. But I don't think we should get too smug. China has come up a lot faster than any other big nation ever came up. But that's good for us. Well, I think, I think, I can hardly think anything more important than future close collaboration between the United States and China. And you're talking about the two most important nations in the world going forward. And I think it is very important that we like and trust one another and have very good relations and work together to avoid bad consequences that come from other people's mistakes and misbehavior. So I think both China and the United States would be crazy not to collaborate and increase trust. I don't think there's anything more important that we can do for our respective safety and for the general benefit of the world.
QuestionerIf you had your choice, would you rather be being born now with all the qualities you've got or when you were born?
CharlieI must say it's very interesting now. But it was always interesting. And I think that's too tough a question. I don't like these very theoretical questions. I'd rather think about something where I might gain some advantage or help somebody else to gain an advantage. advantage.
QuestionerOkay, then we'll move on to Jonathan.
QuestionerWarren, you have up to this point said that Berkshire in the future will have a chief executive officer and one or more chief investment officers. You haven't explicitly said that a chief investment officer cannot be the CEO, but that has, for me, at least, been implied. Berkshire has been successfully managed for 50 years by a chairman and vice chairman whose principal experience was in allocating capital amongst a number of businesses and industries with which they were familiar and who's actually. attributes they could compare. Since capital allocation is the key skill needed for a company's structure the way Berkshire is, why couldn't the company's principal decision maker in the future also be someone who is experience in choosing among different reinvestment options, with perhaps a second outstanding person expert in operations acting as chief operating officer, albeit a relatively hands-off one given Berkshire's extreme decentralization?
WarrenWell, that's a very good question. The, it's not inconsistent. inconceivable. It's very unlikely, Johnny, but as you say, the chief investment officer
[2:26:17]
Warrenhas a, will have, or should have, a significant array of skills that would be useful also for a chief executive officer. But I would say also that I would not want to move, if I were voting on it, I would not want to vote to put somebody whose sole experience had been investments in charge of an operation like Berkshire who had not had any also significant operating experience. And I've said that I'm a better investment manager because I've been an operating manager and I'm a better operating manager because I've been the investment manager. But the operations, I've learned a lot through operations that I wouldn't have learned if I'd stayed in investments all my life. that I would not have been equipped to run it. I learned a lot of things about operations by being in operations. So if you had somebody that had the dual experience and was very good at investments, but it had a lot of experience in operations, that would be conceivable. Otherwise, I wouldn't vote that way.
CharlieCharlie? Well, every year at Berkshire has now constituted, the owned and controlled businesses get more and more important, and the marketable securities are relatively less important. So I think it would be crazy not to go with the tide to some extent. And we need expertise beyond that of a typical portfolio analyst. Yeah. But the CEO should have some real understanding of investments and investment alternatives and all of that. I've seen a lot of businesses run by people that really don't understand the math of investing or capital allocation very well. So having a dual background is useful, but actually our operating managers know, some of them know a lot about investing.
OtherOkay, Station 10.
QuestionerHello. Warren, Charlie, it's a pleasure to be here. My name is Douglas Coburn. I'm originally from Caracas, Venezuela, but I'm here with a large group from Columbia Business School. My question, thank you. My question is regarding Ted Westler. Can you please share your views, regarding his investment philosophy, his investment process, and the qualities that he brings to Bercher.
WarrenYeah, well, both Ted and Todd, the two investment managers, aside from myself at Berkshire, are very, very smart about businesses and investments. I mean, they understand the reality of business operations. They understand what makes for competitive strength and all of the things that you'd learn in business school or learn through investing. And on top of that, they have qualities
[2:29:23]
Warrenof character which are terribly important to me and Charlie. We have seen dozens and dozens and dozens and dozens of investment managers with great records over the years. We used to drop in and see some of those guys, you know, that were running. I'm talking back in the 1960s and 70s. And when I gave up my partnership, I knew probably 20 people with great records from the previous six or eight years, but I picked Bill Rowan to handle the funds of my partners going forward. And he set up a fund called Sequoia Fund, and 10,000 put in that fund has become over $4 million now. Well, Bill was a terrific investment manager, but he was a terrific human being. And we really want people where they do more than their share, where they don't claim credit for things they don't do, where they, you know, just every aspect of their personality is such that you want to be around them and you want to hand responsibility over to them. And Ted and Todd fit that bill, and there's plenty of investment managers in Wall Street with great records that don't fit that bill in our view. So that's about all I can tell you. Charlie met, he met Todd first, I met Ted first. And we both, when we talked about them, we talked about their record and the kind of stocks they own, but we talked a whole lot more about what kind of people they were, and we haven't been disappointed. Charlie?
CharlieYeah, I think the whole thing is working pretty well. And I think those people will be constructive around Berkshire for reasons apart from their expertise in handling securities. In fact, they already are. They already very wrong. They're all. They have just, each one has helped by a business recently.
WarrenYeah, and they will help oversee it, too, the businesses. And they're smart about business. And they know just exactly, they know the right touch to apply in terms of how much they get involved. I mean, Todd worked on charter brokerage. He worked on an acquisition we made from Phillips. Ted just worked on this operation over Germany. He went over there a couple of times, and he's just smart. You know, he's got good sense. He knows how to deal with people. You know, if a deal is to be made, he'll get it made. And we've, Charlie and I've run into more dysfunctional people with 160 IQs probably than anybody alive. But Solomon gave us a head start on that, as a matter of fact. Wouldn't you say that, you know, we've specialized in it.
[2:32:10]
WarrenYeah. We have absolutely specialized in it. Yeah. We have seen, you know, take the Solomon, you know, we have seen a group of people who's IQ's far surpassed those that people of Berkshire, and we've seen them self-destruct to make money they didn't need when they were already rich. You know, I mean, see, that's madness. But a lot of people are just incapable of functioning well day after day, even though they're capable of brilliance from time to time. And we're looking, we've got very solid people in Ted and Todd. They're very bright. And, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and. they identify with Berkshire and not with themselves, and that's a, it's a huge factor over time. Any more, Charlie on that?
CharlieWell, yeah, and the trustworthiness is more important than the brains, not that they don't have the brains, but we wouldn't hire anybody, no matter how able if we didn't trust them. Yeah, very occasionally, you know, we'll get disappointed on that occasionally, but not very often, you know.
OtherWe're approaching noon. We'll come back at one.
WarrenSeven years ago, I made this bet, which was originally to produce a million dollars for the charity of the winner. And another fellow who was in the hedge fund business, I offered this bet to anybody. Only one person took me up on it, and we made this bet where a million dollars goes to the winner's charity, as to whether a group of five hedge funds of funds would beat the S&P Vanguard fund, And my point being that the fees would not overcome, would not be overcome by managerial brilliance and that the hedge funds would fall short. And the other fellow betting, essentially, that paying people 2 and 20 and having an override for the fund of funds was nothing to pay for the brilliance with getting Wall Street to manage your money. And I promised that every year I would report the update. In the first year, I fell far behind, but we reported it then. So we'll put that slide up, and as you can see, seven years into it, it's interesting that just buying Vanguard fund, you know, would know, would know nothing but putting the S&P 500 in there is now given the cumulative return of 63.5% and the hedge funds are at 19%. The interesting thing is, And some of that is underperformance, but the hedge fund managers have done very well during that period.
[2:35:07]
WarrenIf they were managing a billion dollars, for example, at 2 and 20, you get $20 million a year just for coming to the office. It's, you know, it's been, the hedge funds haven't done bad. The investors in the hedge funds have paid a very big price. And the, we originally funded this with zero coupon. We each bought about $350,000 of zero coupon bonds that would be worth $500,000 in the end of the period. We converted it to Berkshire Hathaway stock, so a few years ago, the fellow on the other side of the bet did it with me. And so it now looks like the winner will get appreciably more than a million dollars. And if you want to entertain yourself, you can go to long bets on search, just put it long bets, and you'll find this organization out in Washington that, sort of acts as the stakeholder, sets the rules for these long bets. And now there's hundreds of them up there, and they're on all kinds of predictions. And you can go there, and if you want to disagree with one of the parties on there, you can make these bets to pay off in 50 years or 25 years. It's kind of an interesting site to visit, and people give their arguments on both sides. And so if you don't have anything better to do with your time, take, go to long bets. and in the next hour, have a lunch, and I'll see you back here at one o'clock. Thanks.