"We look at change as a threat" · Transcript

WarrenWell, I would say that Berkshire's businesses, on average, are less likely to be obsoleted by new technology than businesses generally, no steel-toed, steel-toed work shoes. I do not anticipate a significant change in the technology. And I think we have more of the stuff that's sort of basic and hard to obsolete than many other corporations do. As we mentioned in the report, we think all of that activity is very beneficial from a societal standpoint. Our own emphasis is on trying to find businesses that are predictable in a general way as to where they'll be in 10 or 15 or 20 years. And that means we're looking for businesses that, in general, are not going to be susceptible to very much change. We view change as more of of a threat into the investment process than an opportunity. That's quite contrary to the way most people are looking at equities now, but we do not get enthused about, with a few exceptions, we do not get enthused about change as a way to make a lot of money. We try to look at – we're looking for the absence of change to protect ways that are already making a lot of money and allow them to make even more in the future. So we look at change as a threat, and whenever we look at a business, we look at – we look at business, and we see lots of change coming. Nine times out of 10, we're going to pass on that. And when we see something we think it's very likely to look the same 10 years from now or 20 years from now as it does now, we feel much more confident about predicting it. I mean, Coca-Cola is still selling a product that is very, very similar to one that was sold 110 plus years ago, and the fundamentals of distribution and talking to the consumer and all of that sort of thing, really haven't changed at all. Your analysis of Coca-Cola 50 years ago can pretty well serve as an analysis now, we're more comfortable in those kind of businesses. It means we miss a lot of very big winners, but we wouldn't know how to pick those out anyway. And it doesn't mean also that we have very few big losers, and that's quite helpful over time. Yeah, the peanut bread will have very little technological change, too. They better not change it. We like it just the way it is.